I think it is pretty open on who people think is the #1 player. Pujols, Cabrera, Braun and Kemp are the top 4 guys that are being picked at #1. I would probably lean towards Cabrera but not because of the 3B eligibility but because he is a few years younger than Pujols and still very much in his prime.
I don't believe in Braun's steals from last year which knocks him out of the top spot. Kemp needs to show me that the avg and HR are real. He got a tad lucky on BABIP and will likely see a slight regression in those categories unless he learns to cut down on his strike outs which would then help bring those numbers up. Pujols is in decline and while last year was still pretty good it wasn't good enough for the top spot IMO.
"In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move."- Douglas Adams
My sense is it's a two horse race, Miggy or Pujols. From what I've read, Cabrera is the consensus top pick, but not by a whole lot. Can't go wrong with Pujols in my mind. Braun is a definite number 3 for me, and Kemp down a bit maybe after Bautista. Jays fan here, so there might be some bias there. I've read a bit lately that also is devaluing Kemp in the first round somewhat, at least down a spot or two from the time we learned Braun was not going to be suspended.
I would be between Pujols or Cabrera. You have to pick someone first overall for consistency, Kemp isn't reliable enough and Pujols is changing leagues. Cabrera will have third base eligibility and third base is much weaker than first base this year, plus he's in a better line up and a more hitter friendly park.
I would go with cabrera, I think that pujols is getting a little older, and I don't think there is any chance for him to have a his best season ever this season, I think that has already passed. I think cabrera could possibly have his best season ever this year. However I am in a keeper league and am hoping to take kemp, also bc I love the dodgers.