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Trading Draft Picks

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Trading Draft Picks

Postby ramble2 » Fri Mar 16, 2012 7:09 pm

Do people here have any general guidelines for how to evaluate draft pick trades? Do you use different sets of rules for keeper vs. non-keeper leagues? I don't think one needs to, though obviously in keeper leagues you need to be well aware of how specific rules play out here.

I'm curious, because I just completed a draft pick trade myself. I won't bore people in Baseball Leftovers with the details, but here were some general guides I used to evaluate the trade:

1. As a rough first pass, I added up the rounds. E.g., A 2nd + 8th round for 4th + 6th round trade is a 10 for 10 trade, so gets a first pass fairness.

2. Consider who would likely be available in different rounds. Don't just do this abstractly. Plug players into those slots, and compare the overall possible hauls. Do several permutations so you get a good sense of what the end trade may look like.

3. By default, I took higher rounds to be worth more. I.e., if on first pass a trade looked fair, I wanted to be on the higher round end of the trade. Analogous to trying to get the best overall player in a multi-player deal.

4. I modified rule 2 and 3 by upping the value of rounds where I thought I could get good value, and downgraded rounds where less value was available.

The last of these is really important. In my keeper league I thought the players available at the beginning of the draft were pretty low-quality, so traded back to get more mid-round picks, where I think there's a ton of value (and not a huge drop-off). Not sure it will pay off, but I find it fun to play around with different strategies.

So, anyone else have ideas for how to evaluate draft pick trades?
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
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Re: Trading Draft Picks

Postby ramble2 » Fri Mar 16, 2012 7:17 pm

Oh yeah, one other thing: Know your own draft strengths and weaknesses. If you routinely screw up a certain part of the draft, consider moving those picks for a package that will better suit your strength. It will be relatively easy to make a trade, as you should be happy to make a fair deal. And you'll probably end up with a better overall team, as long as the deal is a fair one.

Personally, I know there's a certain point in the draft that I basically always screw up. I've noticed that when the talent pool hits a certain depth, the players I've drafted almost always end up disappointing me. I find myself wishing I had had a few more picks later in the draft, when I made great picks (or just missed out getting that player I thought might blow up that season). The exact point in the draft will change each season, which is why I think it's crucial to know your strengths and when the available talent pool will maximize and minimize your drafting skill set.
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
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