Looking to maybe take a flyer on a rebounding slugger for my UTI slot. Who's the best bet to produce in my points league?
Howard - I'd be thrilled with taking him at this point in the draft but how's his health?! Mourneau - young enough to rebound nicely but three years of being banged-up...hard to trust. Quentin - solid power-hitting OF could still produce another 30-90 year huh?
Adam Lind and Encarnacion are options too, I guess. Or gamble on a young gun like Gamel?!
I want to say that Howard has the realistic upside here, but you are talking to someone who drafted Kendrys Morales last year because he was making progress in spring training and then wound up sitting on my DL half the year before being dropped.
Morneau - I want no part of, its a sad story, but I think this guys career may be over, he picks up a bat and gets dizzy.
Quentin - Don't think he's a "rebound" canidate he put up decent numbers last year. But the move to the NL and Petco thinks he probably won't be anything more than an average OF at best.
Those three are popular names and people may reach for them, so I think I am not interested in any of them at this point.
Of the two others, Lind is at least healthy and did hit 26 bombs and 87 RBI last year in 125 games. So if your saying I have to choose one in a redraft, its probably him. If you are asking should I choose one, I probably would pass.
I think Howard has the most upside. He is a health risk, but if he plays a full (or near full season) he should outproduce everyone listed.
I'm not drafting Morneau. He seems to get injured every year.
Quentin battles injuries as well and is now in PETCO half the time. He certainly has the talent to be a 30 HR hitter with a full season, but my expectations are set at ~25 HR with health. He is hitting 4th so he should be somewhat valuable in a points league.
Lind looked like his old self last year during the 1st half. Then he completely tanked it during the 2nd half. He probably has the most upside next to Howard, but also carries the risk of falling apart. If his 1st/2nd half splits were reversed, I'd be more confident in him. But that 2nd half was so awful. Terrible BB rate, huge K rate, and a massive power drop. Drastic, prolonged shifts like this shouldn't happen to someone in their prime years. I'm beginning to think 2009 was due to *blank* use.
Howard: back in a boot and Rollins questions whether he'll even play this year. I think he returns but when? I went thru this type of thing with Utley a couple years ago and it drove me crazy. In our points-league, Howard's K's limit his ceiling anyway. I think I'm too gun-shy here. Mourneau: huge risk...but what's the reward? I don't know it's worth the risk. He's young enough to give you hope but I'll need to get him cheap. Quentin: Dude's never even posted 500 AB's...that bugs me. But, solid 4th or 5th OF right? Lind: My gut says to go here but just don't feel great about it.
Encarnacion: might provide the best roster benefits for me. I've got all my starters set but Ed could back-up 1B, 3B...and is soon OF eligible.
I think I'm going to let it go another round and see what plays-out.
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by zephyr » Wed Mar 14, 2012 11:28 pm 
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