Help me pick my last keeper

[Carnac]

Here are my potential keepers and the round it would cost me. 12 team H2H league standard scoring.

Strasburg 16th
Hosmer 15th
Napoli 8th
J. Upton 12th

Justin Upton and Strasburg are my no brainers. I am torn between Hosmer and Napoli. Napoli might be a stronger pick for this year, but I can keep Hosmer for 3 years. Who would you keep. Have already declared Hosmer. Have 5 days to set keepers in stone.

[MashinSpuds]

Go with Hosmer for the round and upside. Napoli was great last year but doesn't have the upside over three years that Hosmer does.

[GiantsFan14]

I'm about as high on napoli as anyone, but you gotta go hosmer.

[HybridTheory]

Definitely Hosmer

[silverZ]

Hosmer over Napoli easily.

[rjk21]

Hosmer

[srb7215]

Hosmer and it shouldn't even be a question. You could probably switch the picks and I would still take Hsomer. I need to see more than a red hot half season from Napoli before I would take him in the top half of a draft.

[FrostbiteFalls]

Hosmer hands down

[footballisbetter.com]

I'm about as high on napoli as anyone, but you gotta go hosmer.

I agree with this

[mpieco]

No love for Justin Upton? Maybe I ask why? He only costs you 3 more rounds, and Upton is arguably a first round talent. He's a legit 20-20 guy, and could go off for 30-30 for all we know, and his AVG should be north of .280. Add to that the fact that upper-echelon OF is scarce, and 1B is actually one of the deeper positions this year.

What am I missing?