Fantasy Baseball Cafe Forums

by **whoson1st0** » Wed Mar 14, 2012 9:17 am

As you read more and more busts and sleepers lists, you find a lot of guys on everyone's list. So much so that everyone in your league knows the expected busts and sleepers, thus almost negating the usefulness of these lists.

So my food for thought question is, what guys are on so many 'bust' lists that they are being devalued to the point that they become sleepers (or at least, underrated)?

Likewise, what players might be on so many 'sleeper' lists that they can no longer be considered sleepers and could become busts (or at least, overrated)?

Just something to kick around...

by **Ender** » Wed Mar 14, 2012 10:58 am

I'll go with Melky Cabrera actually producing closer to last year than to the players he is being drafted next to. The AVG is obviously flukey but he always had the 15 HR power and the 15 SB speed and most of that breakout was just playing time.

by **RedHopeful** » Wed Mar 14, 2012 11:05 am

Alex Gordon comes immediately to mind.

by **Ender** » Wed Mar 14, 2012 11:09 am

RedHopeful wrote:Alex Gordon comes immediately to mind.

That would be a good one too. I think Gordon is going to be a bust myself so he is way down on my draft board, if you are a believer he would make a great sleeper though because if he repeats last year he is certainly worth more than where he is being drafted.

by **Y`s Guy** » Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:01 pm

I have a strong feeling he will match last season at least. 25 homers and 90 rbi...why not? He's 28 and it looks like the light went on. Plus the teams energy and expectations are on the rise.

by **Ender** » Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:20 pm

As a leadoff hitter I think he will struggle to top 70 RBI. I don't know that he can repeat the SB and I don't believe in the AVG at all. So when he ends up hitting .275 with 25 HR and pretty average R+RBI he just doesn't jump out at me where he is being drafted. I guess I personally see a step back while he consolidates the improvements from last year and not a repeat. But that is exactly what makes him a great pick for this question because guys like me are keeping his draft value lower than what you expect.

by **jcook3127** » Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:21 pm

Jayson Werth for me...guy undoubtably had the quietest near 20-20 season for a batter coming off a 100+ million dollar contract. Sarcasm??

But the Nats are on the rise...Zimmerman is healthy so he should be around more...Harper should work his way into the lineup at some point this year...and I really envision a solid bounce back for him...a lot of people are just chalking that up to a horrendous contract (which, it still probably is)..but I think Werth is going to really outperform that ADP

.265 and 25 and 15 are under his control..and when the batting average kicks up those 30 points the R/RBI should follow suit...maybe 85 R and 90 RBI depending on where they want him in the order..

His contact rate was actually at a career high last season and swinging strike rate at a career low...I feel like he'll bring in a season really close to Hunter Pence for a pretty discounted rate

by **Montana168** » Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:27 pm

First guy that came to mind of "bust" to "sleeper" is Chad Billingsley. He is going crazy low (got him in the 21st round of a 1st yr 10 team dynasty league), but rightfully so, as many projected him to be a top 25 SP the few years and have been burned hard (including myself). However, he is still just 27 years old. Had a 4+ era last year, but his FIP was in the 3.80s. His walk rate increased last year, and his strike rate decreased; two stats going the opposite way. So maybe it is just blind faith, but when you are drafting him that late (was my #7 SP with 30 man rosters), it is a great low-risk/high-reward scenario.

Guy that went from sleeper to potential bust is Brett Lawrie, no question. He is being drafted too high to the point where a 20+/20+ season is expected or your are not profiting, and in reality he is still growing as a young hitter and his HR/FB was unsustainable. I could see him going 15/15 this year, frustrating his owners, and becoming a sleeper next year.

by **Element** » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:05 pm

Montana168 wrote:First guy that came to mind of "bust" to "sleeper" is Chad Billingsley. He is going crazy low (got him in the 21st round of a 1st yr 10 team dynasty league), but rightfully so, as many projected him to be a top 25 SP the few years and have been burned hard (including myself). However, he is still just 27 years old. Had a 4+ era last year, but his FIP was in the 3.80s. His walk rate increased last year, and his strike rate decreased; two stats going the opposite way. So maybe it is just blind faith, but when you are drafting him that late (was my #7 SP with 30 man rosters), it is a great low-risk/high-reward scenario.

Guy that went from sleeper to potential bust is Brett Lawrie, no question. He is being drafted too high to the point where a 20+/20+ season is expected or your are not profiting, and in reality he is still growing as a young hitter and his HR/FB was unsustainable. I could see him going 15/15 this year, frustrating his owners, and becoming a sleeper next year.

Chad Billingsley is straight do-do butter. His fastball doesn't move much and he gets flustered with runners on base. Countless times we've seen him get through the order a couple of times before hitters finally catch up with him. His mental makeup is fragile. I supposed a late round flyer for some K potential doesn't hurt, but I personally would prefer to use the pick up someone with a little more upside.