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The Matt Capps Doomsday Thread

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The Matt Capps Doomsday Thread

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:19 am

M.Capps: a closer with a 4.6 K/9 :-P , 10 HRs allowed from 65 IP :-P , and the guy behind him in line (G.Perkins) just scored a 3 year, $10mil contract.

When do you think he loses his job? Will he be the first closer to fall (not counting C.Perez)?



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2 months of suck should be enough for MIN :-°
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Re: The Matt Capps Doomsday Thread

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 14, 2012 8:41 am

I think he'll most likely hold the job all season if healthy. He was pitching hurt last year which explains the poor stats. That is the 2nd time he's been very ineffective while pitching through injury though so obviously if he gets hurt he'll lose the job while other pitchers seem to be able to pitch through injuries a lot better.

I'm not sure I'm buying into Perkins season either. It seems odd to see your K rate double with a move to the pen. It should jump up but I just don't see him sustaining the elite peripherals he had last year if he has to face RH on a regular basis.
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Re: The Matt Capps Doomsday Thread

Postby kab21 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 11:37 am

Agreed on the health issues with Capps. If he's healthy with a heart attack inducing but reasonable <4.00 ERA then he'll keep the job. I still don't like either Capps move the Twins have made (the trade and resigning him).

Perkins has me completely baffled. He picked up a couple of mph's when he moved to the bullpen but he can't be as good as last year. He was protected vs righties but he posted excellent numbers against them.

I'm unbelievably pessimistic this season and I expect everything concerning the Twins to turn into a steaming pile. Of course the Twins made the playoffs the last time I was this pessimistic (trading Johan and losing Torii).
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Re: The Matt Capps Doomsday Thread

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 14, 2012 11:53 am

Yeah the Twins are like that, every year I think they look terrible they end up in the playoffs somehow, heh.
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Re: The Matt Capps Doomsday Thread

Postby RyeWhiskey » Wed Mar 14, 2012 3:27 pm

I don't buy that Capps is going to suck just because he had a bad year last year.

In 2010, his stats in MIN were:
27 IP: 2.00 ERA, 1.185 WHIP, 16 SV, 21 K, 2.63 K/BB

Not shabby numbers, and certainly more in line with his career numbers than 2011.
Career: 3.51 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 3.76 K/BB, 6.6 K/9, 1.8 BB/9

So his Ks went down last year, but so did his BBs. His BB/9 went from 2.7 in MIN in 2010 to 1.8 in 2011. As for the HR issue, in 6 years closing he's allowed 10 or more HRs twice (once last year and once in '09 with PIT). His career HR/9 is 1.1.

Is he going to own? No. But he surely will provide excellent value late in the draft. I see an easy line of:
65 IP, 30 SV, 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 50 K
And you can have that long after guys who have way less job security are gone. I'll take him every time.
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Re: The Matt Capps Doomsday Thread

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Mar 14, 2012 4:12 pm

Yeah he's not flashy but if he's healthy he could bring a lot of value. Not like the Twins are really playing for anything so I imagine he'll get lots of leash. Of course, him bringing a lot of value assumes that he's drafted last amongst closers when pretty much everybody else worth a damn is already off the board. I'd certainly have more faith in him than in Chris Perez, though.
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Re: The Matt Capps Doomsday Thread

Postby Tavish » Wed Mar 14, 2012 5:59 pm

Skin Blues wrote: I'd certainly have more faith in him than in Chris Perez, though.

I would agree up to a point. I don't think Capps will perform any better than Perez, but Capps doesn't have Pestano, Sipp, or even Smith next to him in the pen. The Twins don't even really have a nearly ready prospect that is easy to envision pushing Capps.
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