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Posey or Mauer

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Posey or Mauer

Postby goredsox » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:02 pm

Which one of these catchers will have a better 2012? I'm not sure about either of their injuries and if Posey plays some 1B, then that might help.
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Re: Posey or Mauer

Postby Element » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:03 pm

He's healthy right now. I'm going to say Mauer.
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Re: Posey or Mauer

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:06 pm

I like Mauer here. Hits in the middle of the lineup, reportedly healthy, will get more AB seeing time at 1B/DH. The BA advantage can make a huge difference in both roto and H2H.
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Re: Posey or Mauer

Postby Beeblebrox » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:09 pm

Posey by miles, because he will hit more than 10 HR's this year and Mauer won't.

The difference in AVG isn't nearly enough to make up for Mauer's complete lack of power.
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Re: Posey or Mauer

Postby Kimbos Beard » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:15 pm

Beeble is right. I am high on Mauer but even a healthy Mauer will be lucky to hit double digit homers.

I like Posey for the power he will give you.
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Re: Posey or Mauer

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:17 pm

Beeblebrox wrote:Posey by miles, because he will hit more than 10 HR's this year and Mauer won't.

The difference in AVG isn't nearly enough to make up for Mauer's complete lack of power.


Compared to other catchers, yes, it is. Quoting giantsfan's 2up2down article:

One of the more interesting things I’ve learned this year is how much average seems to be undervalued for fantasy purposes. While most of us know how little average means in the real world of OPS and other more advanced statistics, it is still it’s own category in most fantasy leagues and it’s important for us to keep that in mind while drafting. The impact that one player can have on average seems quite underestimated when looking at current MDPs. For example, using my own projections in a standard league that starts nine hitters, Michael Young would increase the batting average of an average team by five points on his own. Looking at my article about what it takes to win a roto league, five points in batting average is actually a very significant amount that could cause a swing of as much as six roto points. Another example is in the values that both Michael Young and Mike Stanton have in my rankings. I have both players projected for very similar run, RBI, and stolen base totals, yet they are both worth around $23. Even though I have Stanton hitting 23 more homeruns than Young, the difference is made up for by Young having a projected average 37 points higher. Comparing their MDPs, however, shows Stanton being taken around 30 picks higher than Young despite being only OF eligible and Young being 1B, 2B, and 3B eligible. The difference in MDP is strongly based on a severe undervaluation of average (along with some age discrimination), especially in relation to power. While this is only a quick and dirty way of looking at the impact a single player’s batting average, it does give a general idea of the importance that batting average can have on a fantasy team and how much it seems to be undervalued.


Mauer's career AVG is .323 with a career OBP over .400. Apply what Giantsfan said about Young to Mauer, and the difference is even more dramatic consider the average catcher line in fantasy. And it's not like Posey is a slugger. How many HR are you expecting?

You can make a decent argument for Posey depending on league settings, but there's no way it's Posey "by a mile."
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Re: Posey or Mauer

Postby Beeblebrox » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:28 pm

lane_anasazi2 wrote:And it's not like Posey is a slugger. How many HR are you expecting?


About 20. Double what Mauer will give you.

Then again, I wouldn't draft either until round 15 or later. Both will of course be long gone by then, and I'll have drafted someone who will produce much better numbers at some other position, being content to wait until the very last round to draft a catcher and stream the hot bat at C all season long.

I'm fairly sure I can get about .270/12/65/65 from a cavalcade of catchers throughout the season rather than burning a single-digit round pick on .290/25/90/90 when better talent is out there. I should probably keep track of that this season....
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Re: Posey or Mauer

Postby Kimbos Beard » Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:12 am

lane_anasazi2 wrote:
Beeblebrox wrote:Posey by miles, because he will hit more than 10 HR's this year and Mauer won't.

The difference in AVG isn't nearly enough to make up for Mauer's complete lack of power.


Compared to other catchers, yes, it is. Quoting giantsfan's 2up2down article:

One of the more interesting things I’ve learned this year is how much average seems to be undervalued for fantasy purposes. While most of us know how little average means in the real world of OPS and other more advanced statistics, it is still it’s own category in most fantasy leagues and it’s important for us to keep that in mind while drafting. The impact that one player can have on average seems quite underestimated when looking at current MDPs. For example, using my own projections in a standard league that starts nine hitters, Michael Young would increase the batting average of an average team by five points on his own. Looking at my article about what it takes to win a roto league, five points in batting average is actually a very significant amount that could cause a swing of as much as six roto points. Another example is in the values that both Michael Young and Mike Stanton have in my rankings. I have both players projected for very similar run, RBI, and stolen base totals, yet they are both worth around $23. Even though I have Stanton hitting 23 more homeruns than Young, the difference is made up for by Young having a projected average 37 points higher. Comparing their MDPs, however, shows Stanton being taken around 30 picks higher than Young despite being only OF eligible and Young being 1B, 2B, and 3B eligible. The difference in MDP is strongly based on a severe undervaluation of average (along with some age discrimination), especially in relation to power. While this is only a quick and dirty way of looking at the impact a single player’s batting average, it does give a general idea of the importance that batting average can have on a fantasy team and how much it seems to be undervalued.


Mauer's career AVG is .323 with a career OBP over .400. Apply what Giantsfan said about Young to Mauer, and the difference is even more dramatic consider the average catcher line in fantasy. And it's not like Posey is a slugger. How many HR are you expecting?

You can make a decent argument for Posey depending on league settings, but there's no way it's Posey "by a mile."


Your quote from Giantsfan is interesting, but I have read some very good articles suggesting that AVG is the one offensive category never to chase. Basically the theory is that even great hitters fluctuate wildly from year to year in AVG, and it is the least consistent of offensive categories. There are some exceptions where a player will have 2-3 of consistent AVG but for the most part even the best hitters have huge spikes. Great hitters like Ichiro had differences of .40 in their AVG from Year to Year. So you think you are drafting the .338 Michael Young and wind up with the .284 Michael Young. It happens

Not sure if I would totally buy this theory, but just look at the variance in AVG in even the best players today, its interesting.
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Re: Posey or Mauer

Postby wvufan1988 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 1:13 am

Beeblebrox wrote:Posey by miles, because he will hit more than 10 HR's this year and Mauer won't.

The difference in AVG isn't nearly enough to make up for Mauer's complete lack of power.

;-D I agree. I like Posey better
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Re: Posey or Mauer

Postby HOOTIE » Wed Mar 14, 2012 2:13 am

You are correct, average can be variable in a given year, do to babip.
I like Posey. The extra power should boost rbis, and it's not like Posey can't hit for a good average.
Unless Mauer gets 500 abs, his impact in average drops some.
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