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What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 14, 2012 11:19 am

Fade2White12 wrote:Not sure how much I agree with that.

Other players with 2011 FB% at at less than 34%:
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Holliday
Joey Votto
Adrian Gonzalez
Eric Hosmer
Robinson Cano
Hunter Pence


That is a very misleading stat. Heyward led the league in IFFB% which gets counted in those FB%. When you strike out 20% of the time and then hit a popout 20% of the time you do put the ball in play it is hard to be productive. Heyward hit the ball on the ground 53.9% of the time last year which was an improvement over his rookie year and puts him around a bunch of weak hitting MI for comps. Probably the best case scenario you can imagine for power for Heyward is Hunter Pence and that would involve a small step up in FB% and a small step in power happening at the same time. I think he'll turn into a 30 HR guy eventually but it is going to take a few years which isn't abnormal at all for a kid that young.
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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby Fade2White12 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 12:23 pm

Correct, but that IFFB% is abnormally high and one can't make the assumption that they would be replaced instead by GBs. Also, last year's FB% was more in line with his batted ball stats in the minors. I think that you also have to take into account last year's injuries when considering those statistics.

All I'm saying is that the statement that his (in)ability to produce fly balls precludes him from breaking out is, IMO, not entirely correct.
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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby kab21 » Wed Mar 14, 2012 11:09 pm

Most of the players listed in this thread are pick #40+ this year because they also carry risk. they could be equally disappointing. This will be the 4th yr that we've been expecting Jay Bruce to breakout. He has been good but more like Pat Burrell (Philly days) and could break out but it's common for a young player (Lawrie, Hosmer, Jennings, etc...) to struggle for years to reach their potential. Just a reminder. and it's quite likely that one of the less hyped young players like Freddie Freeman makes that jump similar to Votto a couple years ago.

My pick for a player that could dramatically outperform or underperform his draft position is ARod. He hasn't been healthy recently but it wouldn't shock me if he went .285, 35HR, 110RBI.
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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 15, 2012 2:35 pm

"the less hyped young players like Freddie Freeman makes that jump similar to Votto a couple years ago"

Votto was that year's Hosmer more than a Freeman. Everyone knew he was going to be a 1st or 2nd round, it was just a matter of whether it was that year or the next one. I know I drafted him in like the 3rd round in 2009 in a 12 team league and I looked like I had a bargain until he had his dizzy spells.
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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby oscar15 » Thu Mar 15, 2012 3:12 pm

Cast my vote for Desmond Jennings. He has 5 category talent. if not 2013, definitly 2014
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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby mikekim2121 » Thu Mar 15, 2012 9:04 pm

I'm as big a Hosmer fan as most but I just don't see him being a top 2 round player next year. I love the fact that he's a 5 cat contributor, but the cap on his power as a first baseman is a little disconcerting. But the same thing was being said about Votto a few years ago so its definitely possible.
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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby kab21 » Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:36 pm

Ender wrote:"the less hyped young players like Freddie Freeman makes that jump similar to Votto a couple years ago"

Votto was that year's Hosmer more than a Freeman. Everyone knew he was going to be a 1st or 2nd round, it was just a matter of whether it was that year or the next one. I know I drafted him in like the 3rd round in 2009 in a 12 team league and I looked like I had a bargain until he had his dizzy spells.


I was talking more about Votto's status as a prospect. Most thought that he would be a pretty solid hitter with a good average and some power. He wasn't in the uber prospect class that Hosmer or Lawrie are.

but the cap on his power as a first baseman is a little disconcerting.

He can hit 30+ (probably not this year since he's 22) so I'm not sure what your concern is.
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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 15, 2012 10:54 pm

That makes sense. Prospect lists have gotten much better in recent years but they are still terrible. I don't pay a whole lot of attention to them because somehow they still tend to ignore the fact that strike outs in the minors are a big negative for hitters and that walks for pitchers in the minors are a prospect killer. I don't know how we still have these guys like Wood listed as big prospects in the minors when it is obvious they have almost no chance to make in the majors.
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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby kab21 » Fri Mar 16, 2012 1:43 am

Ender wrote:That makes sense. Prospect lists have gotten much better in recent years but they are still terrible. I don't pay a whole lot of attention to them because somehow they still tend to ignore the fact that strike outs in the minors are a big negative for hitters and that walks for pitchers in the minors are a prospect killer. I don't know how we still have these guys like Wood listed as big prospects in the minors when it is obvious they have almost no chance to make in the majors.


It's not so much that as the scouting reports were good but not great. Some prospects bust (Smoak) and some greatly exceed expectations regardless of their MiLB numbers. Are Hosmer or JMontero going to be the high upside player that some predict or will it be a good but not great prospect like Freeman, Alonso, Ike, Rizzo, Belt or a different top 100 prospect.
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Re: What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

Postby Tavish » Fri Mar 16, 2012 2:12 am

mikekim2121 wrote:I'm as big a Hosmer fan as most but I just don't see him being a top 2 round player next year. I love the fact that he's a 5 cat contributor, but the cap on his power as a first baseman is a little disconcerting. But the same thing was being said about Votto a few years ago so its definitely possible.

About the only real cap on Hosmer's power is his park. Put him in hitters park and the expectations for this season would probably be closer to 35 than they are to 25.
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