What pick 40+ is likely to be 1st/2nd rounder next year?

[shawngee03]

i think this thread has just become my cheat sheet for my drafts. usually if multiple cafe guys all hype the same group of players they turn out good values come draft day

[lane_anasazi2]

Mike Napoli - being drafted right around pick 40, and if he comes close to repeating his 2011 numbers he could be the first catcher taken in Round 1 next year since Mauer.

Zach Greinke - could be "that guy" this year (Verlander last year, Felix the year before that) - the pitcher being drafted in the 6th-7th round who ends up dominating.

David Price - my pick for "that guy" this year.

Matt Wieters - drafted around pick 80, has improved every year he's been up. Breakout candidate; if he puts up 25+ HR he could go in the 2nd round next year because people will be very inclined to think his performance is "real" and that he could get even better. The post-hype hype could get out of control.

Jason Heyward - Same as Wieters. If he bounces back, the post-hype hype could vault him into the low 2nd round easily.

[Montana168]

Already been said, but my main 2 guys would be Eric Hosmer and Jay Bruce. However, they are definitely high risk/high reward type players where they are currently being drafted because they both have poor plate discipline. Hosmer is a hacker who doesn't walk much, and Bruce K's a lot. However, both approaches can still have success in the BA category.

I look for Hosmer to be in that top 3 1B discussion because he can contribute double digit steals. I know his power might be capped because he hits too many GB last year, but he is going to need to hit 30 HR (or very close to it) if he wants to be in 1st/2nd round discussion as a 1B, but I'll take a leap and say he gets it.

Bruce's power has increased all 4 years in the majors, and he chipped in solid SB last year (albeit at a poor SB/CS rate). I think he takes that next leap this year and hits 40 HR (a very difficult task in the post-steroid era), steals 10+ bases and gets that avg over .280. Lofty projections, but that's what it will take to get into the 1st/2nd rd discussion since he doesn't have the potential to steal 30+ bases like the 1st/2nd round OF's like Braun, Kemp, etc.

The guy I really want to believe in is Jason Heyward. But he is really struggling with that new swing in spring training and looks like he could be 1 more year away (still very young). Since I don't own him anywhere, I hope he does struggle because he will be had VERY cheap midseason if he has under 15 HR by then.

If I had to pick a guy thats really far out there (ADP 186 on Yahoo), it would be Mike Moustakas. I'm surprised people are this low on this guy after struggling in his rookie year. I know he comes with his baggage, and most are capping his power potential this year at 20 HR, but if he can somehow reach his potential (keep in mind he was an elite prospect in the minors) this year and churn out a 30+ HR 100+ .290+ 8+ SB season, he will be in the 2nd round discussion next year at 3B since there are sooo many question marks at that position. Highly unlikely, but I'll take a shot in the dark.

[Frenchiegangsta9]

wow, yeah i totally forgot about Moustakas. Definitely a guy who could blow up this year and fulfill expectations. It would be great for the Royals if their core blossoms together.

[Ender]

Heyward doesn't hit the ball in the air enough to really break out enough to reach 2nd round value, it is going to take a couple years of improvement to see him really break out.

[bayside]

For bats I can see Lawrie ,Jennings, and Mauer all being huge values at their ADP's.
Lawrie could have be a perennial vintage David Wright type player, Jennings could have an Ellsbury-lite season with lots more SB's and fewer RBI, and Mauer is potentially the #1 catcher again if he remains healthy and sees 550+ PA's.

I dont see any new pitchers really making the jump into the top 2 rounds but guys i see going after the 7th round that could be top 10 SP are Moore and Bumgarner. they have the exact same ADP (~91) and both have the skill to push themselves into that elite tier of SP.

[raiders_umpire]

For bats I can see Lawrie ,Jennings, and Mauer all being huge values at their ADP's.
Lawrie could have be a perennial vintage David Wright type player, Jennings could have an Ellsbury-lite season with lots more SB's and fewer RBI, and Mauer is potentially the #1 catcher again if he remains healthy and sees 550+ PA's.

I dont see any new pitchers really making the jump into the top 2 rounds but guys i see going after the 7th round that could be top 10 SP are Moore and Bumgarner. they have the exact same ADP (~91) and both have the skill to push themselves into that elite tier of SP.

Agreed with everything you said except hinting that Jennings might get anywhere near 30 HR this year

Hosmer, Lawrie, Strasburg...all good bets...I do like Jennings and Mauer for good values...Jay Bruce is Jay Bruce in my opinion...why is he any different than another big bat the Reds had five or so years ago? Adam Dunn with 25 more pts of batting average still shouldn't be knocking socks off...he is a solid contributor but I don't think Bruce will ever be worthy of a top 24 fantasy pick in standard 5x5.

I recommend shying away from Utley and letting someone else snag him...even if he bounces back I'm not seeing huge value. Starlin Castro I sort of believe in...and I do think Andrew McCutchen won't disappoint fantasy owners this season even though he's going pretty darn high. Shin Soo Choo won't approach top 2 round production ever again but he's a definite bounce back guy and will be a good value. Heyward I'm kind of cold on..there's just better picks out there where he's going..including Freddie Freeman a couple rounds later. I believe in Stubbs..not top 2 round next year, but that he can exceed his draft position by a good 3 rounds. Ichiro will bat .300+ again for what its worth..and should return to a solid 3 cat contributor.

From the pitching side of things..outside of Stras nobody will jump into Top 2 round range but some tier 2 starters who will either jump into tier 1 or at least be great values...definitely Matt Moore...I'm rolling the dice on Tommy Hanson again..the NL Central is now void of guys who can hit a baseball far if you're Johnny Cueto....and for that reason I'm drafting him on every team. I loved Pineda until I looked at his peripherals and then his new stadium..and then his velocity...and then his weight. Don't draft this guy until he proves it for a year in NYY. Oh, and my boy Mad Max should get back to a mid 3 ERA instead of the mid 4 from a year ago...

[Ender]

the NL Central is now void of guys who can hit a baseball far if you're Johnny Cueto

I dunno about that. The brewers offense might be better this year than last year, they have 5 guys who could hit 25+ HR. The Cardinals aren't going to dip all that much if their guys manage to stay healthy although that is a big if.

[Tavish]

Probably not for the same reason that the OP is wanting, but Ryan Howard will probably find his way back into round 2 after this season.

[Fade2White12]

Heyward doesn't hit the ball in the air enough to really break out enough to reach 2nd round value, it is going to take a couple years of improvement to see him really break out.

Not sure how much I agree with that.

Other players with 2011 FB% at at less than 34%:
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Gonzalez
Matt Holliday
Joey Votto
Adrian Gonzalez
Eric Hosmer
Robinson Cano
Hunter Pence