Stubbs is more likely be to pick 100+ to be honest.
Hosmer would be my #1 assuming he is going 40+, he will be late 1st round next year. Zach Greinke or Yovanni Gallardo, both will be in the NL Cy Young mix this season though in good leagues you won't see enough pitchers go in round 1/2 to see them go.. Jay Bruce will be a 2nd round pick. Starlis Castro once he hits 18 HR and the cubs lineup improves will go late 2nd round.. ARod and Aramis will both be top 40 picks next year though not sure they reach top 2 rounds(and I won't be drafting them there!).
Last edited by Ender on Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Hosmer's going to put up numbers just a little better than where he's being drafted right now IMO. I don't think there's a whole lot of risk picking him where he is going which is why I'll draft him there, but I don't see him putting up 1st round numbers... maybe late 2nd at best.
I agree with Lawrie, Bruce and maybe Crawford, Strasburg too I suppose.
I could seep Napoli making the jump with another big year. The young guys like Hosmer and Jennings could get there. Sandoval has a chance if he stays healthy and improves at all on last year's season. Bruce might go that high but only because he'll be overvalued if he hits 40 bombs.
In my opinion, there isn't a single player with greater defacto first round potential right now than Starlin Castro. He has the position scarcity on his side. He's already producing top 50 value (in mixed leagues) and isn't even 22 yrs old yet. He plays in a hitter friendly park, and is playing for a franchise that in all likelihood will improve rather quickly.
In another year or two I believe he'll be a 20/20 candidate who hits well above .300.
e.g. .300/20/20/100/100 type seasons should be the norm in his prime. at SS, that's golden. I believe in 3-5 years from now, he'll be hitting 30 bombs a year but the SB will probably decline some.
I'll throw Chris Young into the mix. I have his floor at 20/20 but could see a 30/30 season if a few things break his way, e.g. continues to improve walk rate, cuts down on his K rate. He's certainly someone I'll look for, even in an OBP league.
Hosmer and Bruce were the two guys that came right to me. Strasburg is another good one. And not that it means that I would, but Harper could garner some early round consideration if he spends most of the season with the Nats and performs above expectations. Another that I am banking on is Heyward.