Hernandez, Weaver or Lincecum

[goredsox]

I was wondering which of these guys I should draft. I'm not in a keeper league.

[MashinSpuds]

Tough one, but I would go with Weaver. Hernandez won't get the wins and Lincecum may or may not be as great as he's been in the past. Weaver and a solid offense is a smart pick.

[HOOTIE]

Felix
Everybody says Felix can't win.
Last 3 years wins
Weaver 47
Felix 46

[MashinSpuds]

Felix
Everybody says Felix can't win.
Last 3 years wins
Weaver 47
Felix 46

And yet aside from a 19 win campaign in 2009, Felix doesn't have much offense to back him up these days to warrant better win stats than Weaver. Can you bank on him topping Weaver this year across the board? Weaver has only recently come into his own, so along with Pujols there's a chance that his skill and his team builds up his statistics.

I suppose a better consideration is what the OP wishes to bank on. If s/he wants consistency go with Felix. If s/he thinks Weaver is on the up and up, then gamble on Weaver.

[HOOTIE]

Felix
Everybody says Felix can't win.
Last 3 years wins
Weaver 47
Felix 46

Can you bank on him topping Weaver this year across the board? Weaver has only recently come into his own,

Weaver got lucky with a .250 babip last year.
xFIP
Weaver 3.80
Felix 3.15

You can't chase wins, so i don't know who will win wins.
But i take Felix across the board in everything else.

[MashinSpuds]

Well I can't compete with xFIP and BABIP. Choose whoever you like, OP.

[HOOTIE]

Not sure why you say that?
You have to look at babip and xFIP some.
Felix babip was .307, Weaver .250.
Weaver was .26 under his norm, Felix .10 over.
Weavers strand rate was above his normal, Felix under.
So that tells you Weaver had some luck last year, Felix none.
Weaver won 4 more games, but if you factor in no luck for both, that number is much closer.
BP has LAA increasing .36 runs per game, Seattle .37 runs per game.
LAA is projected to score 107 more runs true.
But it doesn't mean the SP gets that average.
If you factor in skill, take out luck, other then maybe wins, i don't see Weaver above Felix.

[MashinSpuds]

Not sure why you say that?

Meaning I say it because I wave the white flag. I'm going with gut, you're going with sabermetrics. Different strategies and reasoning, neither is wrong per se.

Edit: The OP should just go with ADP and be done with it. Hernandez/Lincecum beat out Weaver, so why get cute and reach? Perhaps Pujols is on the brain for me.

[pvhawkeye]

I'm a fan of never drafting off "feeling" and going purely on stats and what's "more likely to happen". I'd rather take a proven veteran who may be on the decline than a question mark newcomer with hype, but that has nothing to do with these 3 guys obviously. Can any of you help with my topic?
viewtopic.php?t=440910
Thanks

[jtsandwich]

Real close between Weaver and Felix.... If you want to go by the safe play, I say Felix. BUT then again Weaver has simply gotten better each year for 4 straight and his team has gotten better from last year. 20 wins would not surprise me. Your not going to go wrong with either pick.