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Which first rounder................

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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Merlin401 » Mon Mar 12, 2012 9:54 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Tulo doesn't have to be worse than the other SS to be a bust. He needs to be worse than the other guys drafted around him. Replacement level for SS is essentially the same as OF and 1B, unless you play in a shallow public league.


Partially agree but you don't have to bring home first round value to avoid being a bust. As long as you bring back top 30 value you're not really a bust IMO. Thats like a Longoria type guy. I think its actually somewhat unlikely he'll be a top 10 player this year but its also very unlikely he won't be a top 30 guy. That consistency is worth something to me. Hanley on the other hand could be a top 3 player this year or he could be outside the top 100.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby jcook3127 » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:09 pm

I think it's Tulowitzki easily..

I forget who posted it, but somebody said that even in 125-140 games he will still outclass all the other short stops

But that's not the point... I understand the scarcity argument and I do think it has to be considered in any type of league because it's a fundamental idea...BUT..this is the first round we're talking about..you need to get production..I don't care if he's outclassing the other short stops..that's not why I'd spend a first round pick on him..because even his full season projection is not as good as the 5-7 guys that will go directly after him..

So in the event that he does get hurt (and the injury risk for him is off the charts in Round 1)...then in my opinion that's just not good enough value in Round 1..

You can even argue in a 12+ member league that the last people to draft a 2B will be even more screwed than SS...I wouldn't have a problem drafting Cano over Tulo in any format...

But hey..Tulo just really turns me off...I get that he's got all around tools but to me he'll always be a Glorified Kinsler...I don't want it in Rd 1

Good luck with Bautista too... that .245, 32, 101, 89, 3 line is coming any year now... if you weigh the pros and cons of Baustista vs Fielder for instance...I just don't like the logic, even with 3B eligibility...

Some people just refuse to get cute in Round 1 and I'm one of them evidently...
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Tennessee Jed » Tue Mar 13, 2012 10:31 pm

Someone explain to me the Tulo injury concerns? A hurt quad 4 years ago and a freak accident hbp fractured wrist which he came back from and had a ridiculous 2nd half. It's not like he's missing huge amounts of time every year
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Ender » Tue Mar 13, 2012 11:18 pm

Also had a hand injury in there in 2008. It isn't so much that I quantify him as injury prone but SS is a high risk injury position, it is rare for a SS to make it to even age 30 without multiple injuries because of how hard the position is on the players body. The same reason it is foolish to draft a C in the first 2 rounds, the injury risk just makes it a downside only play. The other little red flags for me is how mediocre of a hitter he has been outside of his home park and the fact that he seems to be good but not great for 75% of each season and just has that one hot streak that saves his season each year, what happens in that year that he doesn't have a monster month.

I like Tulo, I think he is the best SS in baseball, I expect him to put up at least 2nd round value, but I just don't see any reason to draft him in my top 5 or 6 like he tends to go.
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