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Which first rounder................

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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 12, 2012 9:49 am

Bautista, Longoria and Tulo are the least likely to bring back 1st round value for me. I can see the point for the 5 tool OF types since other than Braun none of them have done it multiple years yet but that is the type of skillset that is just inherently more valuable so it is harder for them to fall off than the more HR oriented guys. Bautista worries me because of the AVG. Tulo and Longoria because they play heavier injury positions and have had injury problems in their career and those are the types most likely to fall off. The 1B and corner OF types are by far the safest health wise.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby J35J » Mon Mar 12, 2012 10:38 am

Ender wrote:Bautista, Longoria and Tulo are the least likely to bring back 1st round value for me. I can see the point for the 5 tool OF types since other than Braun none of them have done it multiple years yet but that is the type of skillset that is just inherently more valuable so it is harder for them to fall off than the more HR oriented guys. Bautista worries me because of the AVG. Tulo and Longoria because they play heavier injury positions and have had injury problems in their career and those are the types most likely to fall off. The 1B and corner OF types are by far the safest health wise.


I like just waiting for you to post a reply as generally I can just say I agree and not have to type it out myself.


I agree. ;-D
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby rjforlife » Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:24 pm

Tulo carries so little risk to me, I don't see him being a bust. The reason he isn't risky is because even in 122 games or 141 games he is outproducing all other SS. His replacement value is so extraordinarily high that even if he doesn't play a full season or his best season, he will still be the best SS. And, gasp, if he plays the whole season, there is no doubt he will be head and shoulders above all other SS. I guess some will say Reyes is up there, but 10 HR and 50 RBI in a FULL season really doesn't entice me like Tulo's 30/100 or better.


Owning Ellsbury in my keeper I don't wish him to be the guy, but he is extremely risky. There is so much reliance on his power, or he becomes Cameron Maybin, or Coco Crisp, or any number of leadoff hitters who steal bases and score runs.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby kab21 » Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:32 pm

Here is my risk breakdown broken down by tiers. I want to draft Tulo because he's a SS but I'm a little uneasy with the pick. With injury prone guys the concern is when and how severe the injury occurs. Change the timing of an injury and a player misses half of the season.

Bautista - emerged from obscurity and could slide back. I wouldn't be shocked if he hit .250 with 25 HR's
tulo - seems to have a few injury issues every season and is streaky

Kemp, Cargo, and Upton = some plate discipline and consistency issues combined with shorter track record - a bad season is probably still .270, 20/15 - Upton is the riskiest in this group. Possibly the riskiest overall.
Ellsbury could be a .290, 10, 35 guy if he doesn't show last year's power. Not that bad.

Pujols is getting older and seems to get nicked up a little. At some point these will catch up with him. I think that time will be 4-5 yrs from now but I didn't expect ARod to struggle so much so fast with age.
Longoria is pretty safe imo but he hasn't exactly had a first rd season yet.
MCabBraunVottoAGonFielderCano are pretty safe imo
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby The Mighty Trow » Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:44 pm

Fielder for me. The change of scenery almost never goes well that first season (no numbers here, just my gut feeling). Comerica is way more cavernous than Miller... see Syfo-Dyas' thread in this forum. And those big contracts tend to weigh heavy on the conscience.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Ender » Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:49 pm

I do think Bautista is probably the safest player in baseball for 35 HR, but he can hit 35 HR and not be a first round value.

Tulo can be the best SS in baseball and not be worth a 1st round pick as well. He isn't stealing as much as he used to so 10 SB isn't a given. His power has been flat or even trending down a little so it is hard to assume more than 30 HR. He has never managed 100 R and 100 RBI in the same season yet. Yes he has upside if he plays 162 games but everyone in the 1st round has upside for some reason or another. On top of that he always seems to have that one huge month that drives his season instead of being a steady elite guy. I could easily see Tulo come out with a line of .290, 90 R, 28 HR, 100 RBI, 7 SB or something like that and be a really solid early 2nd round value even without a major injury. Add in the injury risk and I just think he has a better than normal chance to be that guy that slips.

I didn't see Fielder in the original list and he isn't going in the top 12 in most drafts I see but yeah he makes sense too as a HR only guy.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Tennessee Jed » Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:52 pm

Ender wrote:Bautista, Longoria and Tulo are the least likely to bring back 1st round value for me. I can see the point for the 5 tool OF types since other than Braun none of them have done it multiple years yet but that is the type of skillset that is just inherently more valuable so it is harder for them to fall off than the more HR oriented guys. Bautista worries me because of the AVG. Tulo and Longoria because they play heavier injury positions and have had injury problems in their career and those are the types most likely to fall off. The 1B and corner OF types are by far the safest health wise.


Tulo has had 2 injuries that cost him some time in his career, the quad tear in 2008 and the fractured wrist that was caused by a hit by pitch in '10. the year after his quad injury he had arguably his best season, and after his wrist injury he had one of the best months of offense ever. I wouldn't really say he's had injury problems, just been unlucky, and it shouldn't affect where you take him in the 1st round.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby ichirosan » Mon Mar 12, 2012 12:55 pm

Out of those, Pedroia... I actually have him as a late 2nd rounder.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Mar 12, 2012 1:16 pm

rjforlife wrote:Tulo carries so little risk to me, I don't see him being a bust. The reason he isn't risky is because even in 122 games or 141 games he is outproducing all other SS. His replacement value is so extraordinarily high that even if he doesn't play a full season or his best season, he will still be the best SS. And, gasp, if he plays the whole season, there is no doubt he will be head and shoulders above all other SS. I guess some will say Reyes is up there, but 10 HR and 50 RBI in a FULL season really doesn't entice me like Tulo's 30/100 or better.


Owning Ellsbury in my keeper I don't wish him to be the guy, but he is extremely risky. There is so much reliance on his power, or he becomes Cameron Maybin, or Coco Crisp, or any number of leadoff hitters who steal bases and score runs.

Tulo doesn't have to be worse than the other SS to be a bust. He needs to be worse than the other guys drafted around him. Replacement level for SS is essentially the same as OF and 1B, unless you play in a shallow public league.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon Mar 12, 2012 8:28 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Merlin401 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:For me it's Ellsbury. If he doesn't hit 30 HR again, he better go back to stealing 70 bases or he's going to do nothing but disappoint, and I don't think he approaches nearly 30 again (though as an owner in one league, I hope he does).


Yeah but a 20-40-.300 hitting OF is not really a bust anyway. I think everyone is drafting him with a realization that the homers are coming down. If they didn't, he'd be a top 3 pick with ease.

I think for the most part the bust will come down to an injury (major or nagging). Pujols' bust year is coming... but not for a year or two IMO

What about an 8-40-.300 hitting OF? 8 was his previous career high in HR, and I don't really watch the Sox enough to see what Ellsbury did last year, if it was a change/maturation or if he'll go back to trying to reach double digit homers this year. Certainly a lot of value still, but I'd be pretty angry if I spent the pick it's costing to get Ellsbury and he hit 20 fewer HR than I was predicting.

Decrease in contact rate and ground ball rate together with his increased HR output implies he's sacrificed contact for power and developed more of a "home run swing". There's no reason that he'll go back down to 8, barring injury. .290/18/42 with about 110 runs and 75 RBI seems reasonable.
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