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Which first rounder................

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Which first rounder................

Postby CadensDad » Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:14 pm

Will be the biggest bust this year?

Cabrera-Pujols-Kemp-Bautista-Braun-Votto-Cano-A.Gon-Ellsbury-Longoria-Fielder-Pedroia-Upton-C.Gon

These are the guys going in the first round of nearly every draft. Each year though one of our sure fire first rounders seems to fall, (I.E. Crawford from 2011, A-rod from 10,) ect.

IMO, I think it's either Pujols or Bautista, no real hunch on either. Just my guess. Who do you guys think it will be?


And by bust, I mean who will perform the worst from the first rounder and not be worth the first round pick
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Grounded Polo » Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:23 pm

I'll take Longoria because he has yet to ever perform like a first rounder or top 20 for that matter but goes top 8 anyway. :-b
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby rotoquest » Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:34 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:I'll take Longoria because he has yet to ever perform like a first rounder or top 20 for that matter but goes top 8 anyway. :-b

Like Smokey sang, "I second that emotion". ;-D
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Montana168 » Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:52 pm

lol at the fact that you forgot to include Tulo as a first rounder. But to be fair, he won't be a bust so no big deal. :-D

But to answer your question, I'd go with Jacoby Ellsbury. His HR/FB rate (16%) is not sustainable for him (career 9.5%). Simply hits too many GBs (career: 48%). I expect him to regress closer to his career line, and still be a top of the order hitter 100+ R/10-15 HR/80-90 RBI/40 SB/ .290+ BA. Thats a solid player, but no where near 1st round value to me. Is a late-round guy like Jose Tabata really that far off from those numbers?
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Mar 11, 2012 4:27 pm

For me it's Ellsbury. If he doesn't hit 30 HR again, he better go back to stealing 70 bases or he's going to do nothing but disappoint, and I don't think he approaches nearly 30 again (though as an owner in one league, I hope he does).
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby CadensDad » Sun Mar 11, 2012 5:21 pm

Montana168 wrote:lol at the fact that you forgot to include Tulo as a first rounder. But to be fair, he won't be a bust so no big deal. :-D

lol at your attempt to be funny.


It was a mistake, nothing more.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby Merlin401 » Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:00 pm

bigh0rt wrote:For me it's Ellsbury. If he doesn't hit 30 HR again, he better go back to stealing 70 bases or he's going to do nothing but disappoint, and I don't think he approaches nearly 30 again (though as an owner in one league, I hope he does).


Yeah but a 20-40-.300 hitting OF is not really a bust anyway. I think everyone is drafting him with a realization that the homers are coming down. If they didn't, he'd be a top 3 pick with ease.

I think for the most part the bust will come down to an injury (major or nagging). Pujols' bust year is coming... but not for a year or two IMO
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:05 pm

bigh0rt wrote:If he doesn't hit 30 HR again, he better go back to stealing 70 bases or he's going to do nothing but disappoint


wat. he really doesn't need to do either to be worth a first round pick. i have him at .301-102-19-74-40 which is pretty reasonable and that's worth around a 9th overall pick in my projections. he was probably the second best fantasy player behind kemp last year. he could regress a decent amount and still easily be a first rounder.

i'd go with longoria as well. he's good, but i think he's more of a mid 2nd round pick than a first round pick.
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:05 pm

Merlin401 wrote:If they didn't, he'd be a top 3 pick with ease.


exactly
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Re: Which first rounder................

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Mar 11, 2012 7:07 pm

Merlin401 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:For me it's Ellsbury. If he doesn't hit 30 HR again, he better go back to stealing 70 bases or he's going to do nothing but disappoint, and I don't think he approaches nearly 30 again (though as an owner in one league, I hope he does).


Yeah but a 20-40-.300 hitting OF is not really a bust anyway. I think everyone is drafting him with a realization that the homers are coming down. If they didn't, he'd be a top 3 pick with ease.

I think for the most part the bust will come down to an injury (major or nagging). Pujols' bust year is coming... but not for a year or two IMO

What about an 8-40-.300 hitting OF? 8 was his previous career high in HR, and I don't really watch the Sox enough to see what Ellsbury did last year, if it was a change/maturation or if he'll go back to trying to reach double digit homers this year. Certainly a lot of value still, but I'd be pretty angry if I spent the pick it's costing to get Ellsbury and he hit 20 fewer HR than I was predicting.
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