These are the guys going in the first round of nearly every draft. Each year though one of our sure fire first rounders seems to fall, (I.E. Crawford from 2011, A-rod from 10,) ect.
IMO, I think it's either Pujols or Bautista, no real hunch on either. Just my guess. Who do you guys think it will be?
And by bust, I mean who will perform the worst from the first rounder and not be worth the first round pick
“Never argue with a idiot, because first they will bring you down to their level. Then beat you with experience.”
lol at the fact that you forgot to include Tulo as a first rounder. But to be fair, he won't be a bust so no big deal.
But to answer your question, I'd go with Jacoby Ellsbury. His HR/FB rate (16%) is not sustainable for him (career 9.5%). Simply hits too many GBs (career: 48%). I expect him to regress closer to his career line, and still be a top of the order hitter 100+ R/10-15 HR/80-90 RBI/40 SB/ .290+ BA. Thats a solid player, but no where near 1st round value to me. Is a late-round guy like Jose Tabata really that far off from those numbers?
For me it's Ellsbury. If he doesn't hit 30 HR again, he better go back to stealing 70 bases or he's going to do nothing but disappoint, and I don't think he approaches nearly 30 again (though as an owner in one league, I hope he does).
bigh0rt wrote:For me it's Ellsbury. If he doesn't hit 30 HR again, he better go back to stealing 70 bases or he's going to do nothing but disappoint, and I don't think he approaches nearly 30 again (though as an owner in one league, I hope he does).
Yeah but a 20-40-.300 hitting OF is not really a bust anyway. I think everyone is drafting him with a realization that the homers are coming down. If they didn't, he'd be a top 3 pick with ease.
I think for the most part the bust will come down to an injury (major or nagging). Pujols' bust year is coming... but not for a year or two IMO
bigh0rt wrote:If he doesn't hit 30 HR again, he better go back to stealing 70 bases or he's going to do nothing but disappoint
wat. he really doesn't need to do either to be worth a first round pick. i have him at .301-102-19-74-40 which is pretty reasonable and that's worth around a 9th overall pick in my projections. he was probably the second best fantasy player behind kemp last year. he could regress a decent amount and still easily be a first rounder.
i'd go with longoria as well. he's good, but i think he's more of a mid 2nd round pick than a first round pick.
bigh0rt wrote:For me it's Ellsbury. If he doesn't hit 30 HR again, he better go back to stealing 70 bases or he's going to do nothing but disappoint, and I don't think he approaches nearly 30 again (though as an owner in one league, I hope he does).
Yeah but a 20-40-.300 hitting OF is not really a bust anyway. I think everyone is drafting him with a realization that the homers are coming down. If they didn't, he'd be a top 3 pick with ease.
I think for the most part the bust will come down to an injury (major or nagging). Pujols' bust year is coming... but not for a year or two IMO
What about an 8-40-.300 hitting OF? 8 was his previous career high in HR, and I don't really watch the Sox enough to see what Ellsbury did last year, if it was a change/maturation or if he'll go back to trying to reach double digit homers this year. Certainly a lot of value still, but I'd be pretty angry if I spent the pick it's costing to get Ellsbury and he hit 20 fewer HR than I was predicting.
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by CadensDad » Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:14 pm 
