lol at the fact that you forgot to include Tulo as a first rounder. But to be fair, he won't be a bust so no big deal.
But to answer your question, I'd go with Jacoby Ellsbury. His HR/FB rate (16%) is not sustainable for him (career 9.5%). Simply hits too many GBs (career: 48%). I expect him to regress closer to his career line, and still be a top of the order hitter 100+ R/10-15 HR/80-90 RBI/40 SB/ .290+ BA. Thats a solid player, but no where near 1st round value to me. Is a late-round guy like Jose Tabata really that far off from those numbers?