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Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

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Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

Postby baseballfan89 » Fri Mar 09, 2012 11:54 pm

Hey guys need a quick suggestion/advice on this trade i'm looking on pulling off..

12 team 6x6 league 5 keepers each (Rounds 1-5) .. first round of the draft starts in round 6.

My list of players i have to choose keepers from is:

Pujols
Beltre
Zobrist
Lester
Beckett
CJ Wilson
Kennedy

My draft picks are:
Rounds: 6, 8 ,8 ,8, 11, 12, 12, 13, 15, 16, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 22, 23, 24, 25

Im working on a trade that will be accepted pending my approval that looks something like:

I get:
Halladay + 17th + 18th + 18th + 19th

I send:
8th + 12th + 15th + 16th

- do you guys think i should do this trade? Making Halladay one of my keepers... Taking note that i dont have a 7th round pick, is this trade really worth it for me?

My possible list of keepers could look like: Pujols, Beltre, Zobrist, Halladay, CJ Wilson ???

What do you guys think??

THANKS! WHIR!!
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Re: Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

Postby Barcalounger » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:04 am

Are the other players in the league really good? If they are, I might sit tight. You'll be banking on outdrafting your opponents and finding lots of value in the late rounds. If you think the other guys are alright, but you are in the top 3-4 when it comes to drafting skills, then I would roll the dice. The Halladay > Lester is a good jump in keepers. If you think some lower picks won't hurt you as bad then I'd do it. It all comes down to your drafting skills compared to theirs.
Draft tonight! Please help! viewtopic.php?f=26&t=442770
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Re: Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

Postby jtsandwich » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:06 am

baseballfan89 wrote:Hey guys need a quick suggestion/advice on this trade i'm looking on pulling off..

12 team 6x6 league 5 keepers each (Rounds 1-5) .. first round of the draft starts in round 6.

My list of players i have to choose keepers from is:

Pujols ;-D
Beltre ;-D
Zobrist ;-D
Lester ;-D
Beckett
CJ Wilson
Kennedy ;-D

My draft picks are:
Rounds: 6, 8 ,8 ,8, 11, 12, 12, 13, 15, 16, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 22, 23, 24, 25

Im working on a trade that will be accepted pending my approval that looks something like:

I get:
Halladay + 17th + 18th + 18th + 19th

I send:
8th + 12th + 15th + 16th

- do you guys think i should do this trade? Making Halladay one of my keepers... Taking note that i dont have a 7th round pick, is this trade really worth it for me?

My possible list of keepers could look like: Pujols, Beltre, Zobrist, Halladay, CJ Wilson ???

What do you guys think??

THANKS! WHIR!!


TAKE THE TRADE NOW FOR THE LOVE OF GOD! BEFORE THE GUY PULLS THE OFFER.
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Re: Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

Postby baseballfan89 » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:10 am

jtsandwich wrote:
baseballfan89 wrote:Hey guys need a quick suggestion/advice on this trade i'm looking on pulling off..

12 team 6x6 league 5 keepers each (Rounds 1-5) .. first round of the draft starts in round 6.

My list of players i have to choose keepers from is:

Pujols ;-D
Beltre ;-D
Zobrist ;-D
Lester ;-D
Beckett
CJ Wilson
Kennedy ;-D

My draft picks are:
Rounds: 6, 8 ,8 ,8, 11, 12, 12, 13, 15, 16, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 22, 23, 24, 25

Im working on a trade that will be accepted pending my approval that looks something like:

I get:
Halladay + 17th + 18th + 18th + 19th

I send:
8th + 12th + 15th + 16th

- do you guys think i should do this trade? Making Halladay one of my keepers... Taking note that i dont have a 7th round pick, is this trade really worth it for me?

My possible list of keepers could look like: Pujols, Beltre, Zobrist, Halladay, CJ Wilson ???

What do you guys think??

THANKS! WHIR!!


TAKE THE TRADE NOW FOR THE LOVE OF GOD! BEFORE THE GUY PULLS THE OFFER.


haha seriously? ok .. but that means halladay will be one of my keepers so with halladay in that list which other 4 do you like??

thanks again for the help guys! appreciate it!
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Re: Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

Postby baseballfan89 » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:12 am

also, there is an option for me to acquire hamels instead of halladay... that trade would look like:

I get:
Hamels + 17th + 18th

I send:

8th + 15th

with this trade there is less draft picks involved leaving less risk i guess.
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Re: Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

Postby Seanyfever » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:13 am

I'm accepting this deal if it is ont he table.

What's your input
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Re: Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

Postby Barcalounger » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:18 am

I was curious on the math, so I just pulled up ESPN and compared the auction values of each of those assets. For a draft pick value I'd just pick the value of the middle pick in that round according to their sheet. So the 8th round pick is like the value of the #90 guy on the list, which is $13. Obviously not a perfect method but an awesome quick estimate for comparative values in this complicated trade.

Halladay + value of picks = $50
Lester + value of picks = $51

haha! we learn that the trade is very close! just like you suspected!
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Re: Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

Postby baseballfan89 » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:44 am

Barcalounger wrote:I was curious on the math, so I just pulled up ESPN and compared the auction values of each of those assets. For a draft pick value I'd just pick the value of the middle pick in that round according to their sheet. So the 8th round pick is like the value of the #90 guy on the list, which is $13. Obviously not a perfect method but an awesome quick estimate for comparative values in this complicated trade.

Halladay + value of picks = $50
Lester + value of picks = $51

haha! we learn that the trade is very close! just like you suspected!


im sorry im kind of confused... which picks are you putting value to? And by saying halladay and picks = 50 bucks and lester + picks = 51 are stating that the value is better for halladay? Therefore accepting the trade lol?
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Re: Trade/keeper help - WHIR 100%!

Postby Barcalounger » Sat Mar 10, 2012 12:57 am

baseballfan89 wrote:im sorry im kind of confused... which picks are you putting value to? And by saying halladay and picks = 50 bucks and lester + picks = 51 are stating that the value is better for halladay? Therefore accepting the trade lol?


The players you are getting = Halladay + 17th + 18th + 18th + 19th = $33 + $5 + $4 + $4 + $4 = $50
The players you are losing = Lester + 8th + 12th + 15th + 16th = $18 + $13 + $8 + $6 + $6 = $51

Giving up $51 to get $50 is a losing proposition in most circles, all be it a small one. Now you just have to dig into the assumptions here: some of which are that Lester is the keeper Halladay replaces, Halladay is worth $33 like ESPN says, that ESPN didn't over inflate Lester at $18 (I'd look here for wiggle room), etc. Using my personal values for Halladay and Lester turns this into a $1 winner for you. So in conclusion, it's close. Like I said before, it's mainly a gut check on whether you can extract maximum value out of late round picks or not. Look back a few years and grade yourself on it.
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