12 Team H2H Points Auction Keeper Help. WHIR

[49ersavior]

Just took over a new team in a 12 team auction h2h points league. Can keep 2, price goes up by $5 each year kept. Total $260 spending limit, 25man rosters

Bear with me these are the categories points are based off of in the league:



Scoring System
Scoring for Batting Categories Name Settings
1B Singles 1 point
2B Doubles 2 points
3B Triples 3.5 points
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point
CS Caught Stealing -1 point
CYC Hitting for the Cycle 10 points
GDP Ground Into Double Plays -1 point
GSHR Grand Slam Home Runs 4 points
H Hits 1 point
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR Home Runs 4 points
KO Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point
R Runs 1 point
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point
SB Stolen Bases 1.5 points
SH Sacrifice Hits .5 points
Scoring for Pitching Categories Name Settings
BBI Walks Issued (Pitchers) -.25 points
BS Blown Saves -2.5 points
CG Complete Games 10 points
ER Earned Runs -1 point
HA Hits Allowed -.25 points
HB Hit Batsmen -.25 points
HD Holds 2 points
INN Innings 1 point
K Strikeouts (Pitcher) 2 points
L Losses -5 points
NH No-Hitters 20 points
PG Perfect Games 40 points
QS Quality Starts 5 points
S Saves 8 points
SO Shutouts 10 points
W Wins 10 points

So based on this, it looks like a pitching heavy league. The team I inherited from last year w/prices included is as follows.
C Mike Napoli $6 ($11 to keep) ?
1B Joey Votto $32 ($37 to keep)
1B Adam Lind $2 ($7 to keep)
1B/3B Edwin Encarnacion $1 ($6 to keep)
2B Kelly Johnson $1 ($6 to keep)
3B Alex Rodriguez $31 ($36 to keep)
SS Yunel Escobar $1 ($6 to keep)
OF Ryan Braun $33 ($38 to keep)
OF Jay Bruce $15 ($20 to keep)
OF Hunter Pence $9 ($14 to keep) ?
OF Justin Upton $15 ($20 to keep) ?
OF Nelson Cruz $10 ($15 to keep) ?

SP Colby Lewis $14 ($19 to keep)
SP Ricky Nolasco $11 ($16 to keep)
SP Felipe Paulino $1 ($6 to keep)
SP James Shields $7 ($12 to keep) **
SP Stephen Strausburg $1 ($6 to keep) **
SP Chad Billingsley $19 ($24 to keep)
SP Gavin Floyd $5 ($10 to keep)
SP Brandon Morrow $13 ($18 to keep)
SP Bud Norris $5 ($10 to keep)
RP Andrew Bailey $1 ($6 to keep)
SP/RP Cory Luebke $1 ($6 to keep)
RP Brandon League $1 ($6 to keep)
RP Jordan Walden $1 ($6 to keep)

Alright, so out of all that my realistic candidates are Napoli for $6, Pence for $14, Upton for $20, Cruz for $15, Strausburg for $6, and Shields for $12. I am leaning towards Strausburg and Shields being that Shields is a top-15 pitcher and Strausburg even with an innings limit I'll be able to hang onto for cheap for awhile. Also it will be cheaper overall. However, Upton is only 23 and even though id have to go $20 on him this year he was 5th in mvp voting last year. Thoughts? Whir

[kidsilk]

Upton and Shields.

please help

viewtopic.php?t=440891

[Barcalounger]

I'm pretty sure I stole this formula from somebody smart, like Ron Shandler or something, but for quick keeper calculations I use (expected value / 2) + keeper money saved. So for upton if your cheat sheet has him at $29 then it's ==> (29 / 2) + (29 - 20) = 23.5. Compare that with the other calculated numbers and I got:

Upton $20 >>> Pence $14 > Napoli $6 >> Shields $12 >>>>>>> Strasburg $6 > Cruz $15

Seems about right.

[49ersavior]

So who are you recommending keeping? the arrows got me confused.

[Barcalounger]

Not arrows, greater than. As in Upton is a much better keeper option than Pence and Napoli, who are close to each other, who are both above Shields, who is way above Strasburg and Cruz.

[jtsandwich]

Upton is the no brainer. I an mot a fan of Shields, BUT, CG's are a 10 point cat and he will have 8-9 this year and that is a lot of added value.

[Seanyfever]

I am not a pts league manager..... Upton was obvious, and I debated between Sheilds and Strasburg.... It was the complete game comment that pulled me to Sheilds. Nice eye!

Thanks for your post on mine.

[49ersavior]

Just rechecked and Strausburg's keeper price will actually be $11. So thinking Upton and Shields now.

[Urban Cohorts]

Just rechecked and Strausburg's keeper price will actually be $11. So thinking Upton and Shields now.

I would still go Upton and Strasburg.

Upton for $20 is going to be extremely valuable for at least 3 to 4 more years barring injury.

Strasburg for $11 is going to be extremely valuable for at least 4 to 5 more years barring injury.

With your league placing a heavy emphasis on pitching, Strasburg is the best long term option. Shields may be better this year with your scoring categories, but he isn't nearly as good a long term keeper as Strasburg. And with only 2 keepers, you need to keep the best value guys on your team. Breakout players who aren't kept will go for higher amounts of money.

CG and perfect games are not stats you can bank on. Shields had a nice 2011, but has never pitched at that level prior to that. I doubt he repeats that performance in 2012.

160 IP from Strasburg + 60 IP from another SP/RP > 220 IP from Shields