I'm thinking about 35 HR's this year. The fact that he's going to Comerica and also changing leagues, but mostly due to the Comerica factor, he'll probably be in for a noticeable drop off.
But if anyone can still perform in Comerica, its a guy like Prince.
Miller park plays quite a bit differently depending on whether the roof is open or not and it almost never has a lot of wind to help a ball out or hold one in. It is pretty hard to guess just how many he'll lose to the park. I would take the under on 35 HR though it won't surprise me if I'm wrong since he is still improving as a hitter. I think he is a legit 290+ hitter though.
Ender wrote:Miller park plays quite a bit differently depending on whether the roof is open or not and it almost never has a lot of wind to help a ball out or hold one in. It is pretty hard to guess just how many he'll lose to the park. I would take the under on 35 HR though it won't surprise me if I'm wrong since he is still improving as a hitter. I think he is a legit 290+ hitter though.
Not only this, but I have heard a lot of players say that the hitter backdrop at Miller Park is very good. Overall, it's a great place for hitters. I would be conservative with HR projections (30-35). I also agree with Ender in that he is a legit 290+ guy.
HOOTIE wrote:It will take away some hrs, but i wouldn't worry too much. Miggy there in 4 years has averaged 35 hrs a year.
To be fair it is harder on LH than RH and Fielder is coming from one of the best situations for LH power hitters that you can have. This is a pretty significant change though Fielder hits his share of no doubters so it won't totally kill his power.
You also have to consider that this is just from one season. In 2011 Fielder had the biggest difference in home and away splits, so if he continues the trend he started last year, then yes it looks like Comerica Park will drain some of his power. However, if you look at the other 5 full seasons he played with Milwuakee, you'll notice that his home/away splits arent nearly as dramatic as last season would indicate. I'm gonna give Prince the benefit of the doubt on this one, and I'm expecting well over 30, if not 40 home runs.
And as mentioned earlier in this post, Fielder IS a legit .290 hitter, and he gets his share of walks. So even if the home run total DOES drop off a bit, he will still produce in the other categories.
You still have to remember that Prince does Have a career .279/.381/.515 avg/obp/slg outside of Miller Park, so I think he's pretty safe.
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by Syfo-Dyas » Fri Mar 09, 2012 3:39 am 
