2012 Keeper Math - WHIR!!

[Lenny6]

I'll post my annual question as I get ready to select keepers in a couple of weeks. I am in a 12-team H2H points auction league where starting pitching tends to be more expensive than hitters, at least at the top end, and teams (myself included) tend to carry close to the max of 11 pitchers on rosters. I can keep up to 13 players OR $156 in salary, whichever comes first.

I have 5 sure keepers:
Robinson Cano ($20)
Andrew McCutchen ($9)
Ian Kennedy ($8)
Eric Hosmer ($3)
Giancarlo "Mike" Stanton ($3)

So I can go into auction with those 5 and a truckload of money, or I can add some more of these players to my list. Tell me who you would keep and why. I've added my thinking on each:

Billy Butler ($14) - I don't like his DH-only status
Ted Lilly ($14) - A steady performer who is nice to have for 2-start weeks, but I think I can get him back for a few less dollars
Michael Cuddyer ($13) - Even with going to Coors I don't see him as more than a marginal #3 OF, backup 1B, utility type he's always been
Pablo Sandoval ($13) - Getting a lot of hype with the thin 3B options available, but is injury plagued
Trevor Cahill ($12) - Same boat as Lilly, just a lot younger
Adam Lind ($12) - I liked him for stretches last season, but probably not worth keeping at this price
Yunel Escobar ($10) - Same as Lind
Jair Jurrjens ($8) - If his knee holds up this spring I will probably keep him although he won't be as great as the 1st half of last season
Mark Buehrle ($7) - I'm leaning towards keeping him to see how his NL stint goes. This is the price I'd want Lilly and Cahill at.
Mike Leake ($5) - Potential, but not guaranteed a rotation spot. There could be other similar options to gamble on at this price if I throw him back.
Mike Moustakas ($5) - Probably worth keeping to see if he can be more like his September stats, or at a minimum an average hitter unlike most his first season
Angel Pagan ($5) - Not very a very exciting option in a points league
Jose Valverde ($5) - Probably a no-brainer after the season he had, even if there is no way he can duplicate it. RP's are cheap in our league, though, so I could replace him with Marmol or Farnsworth types for $1- $2 at auction

I'm exploring trades and would package some of these guys for a more sure-fire keeper, but assuming no moves which players would you add to the keeper list up to 13 players or $156?

Thanks, and leave a link for help in return!

[HOOTIE]

Pablo at $13 is a given.
Valverde at $5
Moustakis at $5

Not a Buehrle fan

[Element]

I would definitely keep Sandoval. He's injury plagued? He missed some time last season because he got hit on the hand. He finished with some impressive counting stats despite missing 4-5 weeks. Now the Giants have added Melky, Pagan & get Posey (and hopefully for them, Freddy Sanchez (excellent 2-hole hitter) back. If they get anything from Huff/Belt they will be a scary team. Pablo also had offseason lasik surgery and said that he can actually see the rotation on the ball now (right side of the plate? GF help me out here!). He had a balky shoulder last season too, but you couldn't tell by looking at his numbers. I hate everything about the Giants. Hate their guts. But I'm getting this guy whenever possible this season.

Valverde should continue to get a lot of save chances. He's another target of mine in most leagues virtually every season. The ratios are never sexy, but he knows how to close games out.

I would also take the $5 flyer on Moustakas. Assuming $260 draft cap here too.

[Urban Cohorts]

So I can go into auction with those 5 and a truckload of money, or I can add some more of these players to my list. Tell me who you would keep and why. I've added my thinking on each:

Billy Butler ($14) - I don't like his DH-only status
Ted Lilly ($14) - A steady performer who is nice to have for 2-start weeks, but I think I can get him back for a few less dollars
Michael Cuddyer ($13) - Even with going to Coors I don't see him as more than a marginal #3 OF, backup 1B, utility type he's always been
Pablo Sandoval ($13) - Getting a lot of hype with the thin 3B options available, but is injury plagued
Trevor Cahill ($12) - Same boat as Lilly, just a lot younger
Adam Lind ($12) - I liked him for stretches last season, but probably not worth keeping at this price
Yunel Escobar ($10) - Same as Lind
Jair Jurrjens ($8) - If his knee holds up this spring I will probably keep him although he won't be as great as the 1st half of last season
Mark Buehrle ($7) - I'm leaning towards keeping him to see how his NL stint goes. This is the price I'd want Lilly and Cahill at.
Mike Leake ($5) - Potential, but not guaranteed a rotation spot. There could be other similar options to gamble on at this price if I throw him back.
Mike Moustakas ($5) - Probably worth keeping to see if he can be more like his September stats, or at a minimum an average hitter unlike most his first season
Angel Pagan ($5) - Not very a very exciting option in a points league
Jose Valverde ($5) - Probably a no-brainer after the season he had, even if there is no way he can duplicate it. RP's are cheap in our league, though, so I could replace him with Marmol or Farnsworth types for $1- $2 at auction

Spot on with the top 5 keepers. Here are my thoughts on the others-

Billy Butler ($14) - Not a terrible price for a DH. Would be a keeper for sure if he had 1B eligibility (as he does in Yahoo).
Ted Lilly ($14) - Agreed. You could probably redraft him for less. Good arm to have come playoff time (weak schedule).
Michael Cuddyer ($13) - He doesn't qualify as a 2B (17 games in 2011)? Even if he doesn't I'd keep him at this price. He is decent now and the numbers are sure to go up in Colorado.
Pablo Sandoval ($13) - How is he injury plagued? Excluding his rookie year, he has over 400 AB in all seasons and over 500 in 2 of those. Definite keeper here.
Trevor Cahill ($12) - Redraft him for less if you like him.
Adam Lind ($12) - I agree, not worth keeping.
Yunel Escobar ($10) - Yeah, most likely a throw back unless your league utilizes an extra MI. Little room for profit here.
Jair Jurrjens ($8) - Poor health, eroding K rate, rising BB rate, poor 2nd half of 2012. He just doesn't do it for me.
Mark Buehrle ($7) - I think he has some upside at this cost. The NL should be good for him.
Mike Leake ($5) - A gamble I would take if your league has a heavy emphasis on SP.
Mike Moustakas ($5) - I'm not as big on Moustakas as most, but this cost seems reasonable. How much do salaries increase year-to-year?
Angel Pagan ($5) - Toss him back.
Jose Valverde ($5) - Valverde is one of the safer picks for a RP in my book. But if you can get Marmol for $1-$2, draft him too.

I would definitely add- Sandoval, Leake, and Valverde
I would consider- Billy Butler, Cuddyer, and Buehrle
I would definitely drop- Lind, Escobar, Jurrjens, and Pagan

The rest I would probably all drop but can see arguments for keeping. Good luck

[Hammers]

I've always like Cuddyer, I don't know why he gets such a bad rap. I would also take Sandoval.

[Broncmet724]

Billy Butler - $19.42
Cuddyer - $13.04
Pablo - $15.66
Angel Pagan - $7.20
Jose - $9.63

That's what they are worth in a 5x5 by my dollar amounts. All the others are worth less. Not sure what your point system is.

I can see the argument for keeping Moustakas, but I like Pablo much better

[wheels]

Keep Sandoval and Valverde for sure, not likely to improve on those 2 at a better value. I would also consider Butler or Cuddyer.

please help...viewtopic.php?t=440675

[kslates]

I'd keep Panda, Valverde, Cuddyer and Moustakas


Help me?
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=440746

[raiders_umpire]

Easily keep Sandoval and Valverde.