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The value of Brett Gardner

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The value of Brett Gardner

Postby etex211 » Sun Mar 04, 2012 9:35 pm

What does everybody think Brett Gardner should be worth in an AL only 5x5 roto auction league? I've got him at $26 right now and I am trying to decide if he should be one of my 8 keepers.

Our league has 23 active players and a $260 auction budget.

As a point of reference, I paid $26 for him at last year's auction. Juan Pierre also brought $26. Obviously, these guys bring this kind of money because of their steals.

So, is Gardner worth 10% of my auction budget?

I should probably post my other keepers....

$13 Mike Napoli
$37 Adrian Gonzalez
$27 Robinson Cano
$5 Jemile Weeks
$13 Scott Baker
$6 Justin Masterson

That's six keepers. Gardner would be my seventh. I probably don't have an eighth. My roster is pretty weak.

Any thoughts appreciated.
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Re: The value of Brett Gardner

Postby SecretAgentMan » Sun Mar 04, 2012 9:42 pm

Hard to say in AL-only, but that seems high though it might depend on how deep you go. He has rocks for brains and thinks he is Granderson out there at times (tries to swing for Hrs). If he slapped the ball around, bunted more and got a little plate discipline, he would hit 280+ with a 400 OBP and the Yanks would stick him in as their leadoff man and his vaue would be very high. As it is now, the guy struggles to hit 260. He will get you plenty of runs and SBs though but I would not burn 10% of my budget on a 2 category player.
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Re: The value of Brett Gardner

Postby MashinSpuds » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:12 pm

I don't like spending that much on a player, but as I am in an NL-only league I know that really good speed is hard to come by. Gardner is the Bourn of AL-only leagues most likely, so you probably do need to pay quite a bit to get/hang onto him. Tough decision.

What I would do is gauge as to what players other managers are keeping. If a lot of speed is probably getting kept, then Gardner may be the only speedy guy you can get. If you throw him back he might end up at the same price anyway given the categorical desperation of other managers. Saves usually end up the same way.

With your three power guys, Gardner would be great to help complement your team. I would lean towards keeping him and write him off as just one of those expenses you have to make given the league you're in.
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Re: The value of Brett Gardner

Postby SecretAgentMan » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:19 pm

MashinSpuds wrote:I don't like spending that much on a player, but as I am in an NL-only league I know that really good speed is hard to come by. Gardner is the Bourn of AL-only leagues most likely, so you probably do need to pay quite a bit to get/hang onto him. Tough decision.

What I would do is gauge as to what players other managers are keeping. If a lot of speed is probably getting kept, then Gardner may be the only speedy guy you can get. If you throw him back he might end up at the same price anyway given the categorical desperation of other managers. Saves usually end up the same way.

With your three power guys, Gardner would be great to help complement your team. I would lean towards keeping him and write him off as just one of those expenses you have to make given the league you're in.




If he goes for that much in the auction, then why would one keep him?....One can always buy him back if one likes him that much. You want to keep guys that are either bargains or who would get run up to points above what they cost you to keep. The only way Gardner makes sense to keep imo is if 1. you think he is worth $26 and 2. you think he fetchs more than $26 at auction. Otherwise, you are better off letting him go and keeping someone more cost effective imo.
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Re: The value of Brett Gardner

Postby etex211 » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:30 pm

SecretAgentMan wrote:
MashinSpuds wrote:I don't like spending that much on a player, but as I am in an NL-only league I know that really good speed is hard to come by. Gardner is the Bourn of AL-only leagues most likely, so you probably do need to pay quite a bit to get/hang onto him. Tough decision.

What I would do is gauge as to what players other managers are keeping. If a lot of speed is probably getting kept, then Gardner may be the only speedy guy you can get. If you throw him back he might end up at the same price anyway given the categorical desperation of other managers. Saves usually end up the same way.

With your three power guys, Gardner would be great to help complement your team. I would lean towards keeping him and write him off as just one of those expenses you have to make given the league you're in.




If he goes for that much in the auction, then why would one keep him?....One can always buy him back if one likes him that much. You want to keep guys that are either bargains or who would get run up to points above what they cost you to keep. The only way Gardner makes sense to keep imo is if 1. you think he is worth $26 and 2. you think he fetchs more than $26 at auction. Otherwise, you are better off letting him go and keeping someone more cost effective imo.



I agree with what you are saying. My problem is that I don't really have eight keepers. I'm keeping AGon at $37, and I don't think that is a bargain, either. I could see Gardner going for less than $20 at our auction. I could also see him going for over $30. This league historically bids up the one category players (closers and steals guys). I may be talking myself into keeping him. I still can't decide.

I've got a similar problem with Shin-Soo Choo. I took him for $32 last year. I think I'll throw him back because I believe he will be cheaper this season because of last year's injury problems.

If I don't keep my full allotment of eight keepers, it may not necessarily be a bad thing. We have new rule this year, a keeper auction one week prior to our regular auction. Any team that doesn't keep it's full number of keepers can bid on players not kept by other teams, with the floor price being last year's salary. It will be a sealed bid auction via email.
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Re: The value of Brett Gardner

Postby SecretAgentMan » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:39 pm

I could see AGonzo going for $37+ in AL only, esp with inflation. At least there, even if you are paing par value, you are doing so for an elite player.

I would not keep Choo at that price point as he should cost a lot less at auction.

Scott Baker at $13 seems like the guy you are keeping that I would question. Is Baker really worth $13 in AL-only? I would not pay more than $1 for him in a mixed league auction (but that is me).

As for Gardner, it does depend on your league. I just do not think the guy is more than a mediocre talent in fantasy (at least right now) so paying 10% of my budget on a guy that hits 260 with no pop or rbi production seems like a reach but again that is me. If your league is such that he will get bid up to $30+, then you certainly are justified in keeping him if you have no better options.
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Re: The value of Brett Gardner

Postby MashinSpuds » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:49 pm

SecretAgentMan wrote:If he goes for that much in the auction, then why would one keep him?....One can always buy him back if one likes him that much.

Well, one cannot always buy a player back. If Gardner is kept the manager is guaranteed the player, whereas if he gets thrown back someone else who may be more desperate could bid up Gardner even further given his speed. If speed is an important consideration (as I mentioned, the OP should see who else could be kept or thrown back) then letting Gardner go back into the auction may not work in his favor. Also, since his keepers are lacking according to him, hanging onto Gardner may be the only option unless he wants to make keepers even more sparse.

It may be best to see if someone in the league would want Gardner for that price. If you can get 2-3 players back from a speed-hungry manager your problem is solved.
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Re: The value of Brett Gardner

Postby SecretAgentMan » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:58 pm

MashinSpuds wrote:
SecretAgentMan wrote:If he goes for that much in the auction, then why would one keep him?....One can always buy him back if one likes him that much.

Well, one cannot always buy a player back. If Gardner is kept the manager is guaranteed the player, whereas if he gets thrown back someone else who may be more desperate could bid up Gardner even further given his speed. If speed is an important consideration (as I mentioned, the OP should see who else could be kept or thrown back) then letting Gardner go back into the auction may not work in his favor. Also, since his keepers are lacking according to him, hanging onto Gardner may be the only option unless he wants to make keepers even more sparse.

It may be best to see if someone in the league would want Gardner for that price. If you can get 2-3 players back from a speed-hungry manager your problem is solved.



Having another owner overpay even more is always a danger when you throw someone back. My attitude on that is basically...so what? If someone else wants to pay $40 for Brett Gardner...let them...it is to your advantage. Simply look to get SBs elsewhere. If the player involved is elite talent, then I would not risk such a move, but this is Brett Gardner not Miguel Cabrera.

As I said, if Gardner is the best option then that is fine, but it seems a bit of a reach at that price point under normal circumstances even in AL-only. I would rather not have $26 tied up in Gardner and use it to towards spending $40 on some first round talent instead...but again that is me. I prefer to spend big on elite players and let others sit around over-spending on mid-range talent.
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Re: The value of Brett Gardner

Postby etex211 » Mon Mar 05, 2012 2:52 pm

Now that I think about it, it really is ridiculous to spend that kind of money for one stat. For a few dollars more, I can buy a legitimate five category contributor.

Thanks SAM, I believe you've talked me into it.

I'm glad I started this thread.
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