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Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

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Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby smoovethug » Sun Mar 04, 2012 2:44 pm

Chris Sale
Dan Bard
Neftali Feliz
Aaron Crow
Aroldis Chapman

Am I missing anyone? What are we expecting from these guys? Lots of strikeouts along with bouts of wildness and inconsistency? Who if any are you targeting?
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Re: Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby J35J » Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:43 pm

I honestly don't want any of them...if they somehow fell further than they have been going, maybe I give one of them a shot but there doesn't seem to be any value in them right now. Most will have pitch count limts, inning limits and wildness to overcome...I'm not really excited about any of them "this" year.
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Re: Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby dclark0699 » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:11 pm

I did a little statistical analysis on pitchers in the last 10 years to have been converted from Reliever to Starter for some numbers to chew on.

Method

Universe:
Pitchers in the Last 10 Years

Season 1:
Pitched in more than 20 games with less than 5 starts

Season 2:
Year After Season 1
More than 15 Starts

Results:
39 Players Meet Criteria

The pitchers saw an average increase of 104 IP, A decrease in .94 K/9, a decrease of .81 BB/9.
Their ERA increased an average of 0.19 and they won an average of 9.5 games.

Total Avg Line in Season 2: 9 Wins, 101 K, 4.35 ERA

Best Seasons:
Ryan Dempster 206 IP (17-6) 187 K 2.96 ERA in 2008
Justin Duchscherer 141.6 IP (10-8) 95 K 2.54 ERA in 2008
RA Dickey 174.3 IP (11-9) 104 K 2.84 ERA in 2010

Worst:
Gary Knotts 95.3 IP (3-8) 51 K 6.04 ERA in 2003
Jorge de la Rosa 130 IP (8-12) 82 K 5.82 ERA in 2007
Edwin Jackson 161 IP (5-15) 128 K 5.76 ERA in 2007
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Re: Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby TheRock » Sun Mar 04, 2012 10:52 pm

Nice work dclark ;-D

I think the recent success of Ogando makes these guys intriguing. Feliz seems to be going pretty early, I think Bard and Sale can still be had pretty late and are worth a late round gamble. Chapman's probably headed to the minors, and Crow won't be starting anywhere near a full season.
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Re: Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby AussieDodger » Mon Mar 05, 2012 1:43 am

Can't see any of them throwing more then 140ish innings, but I do have interest in C.Sale late.

Aaron Crow has a red flag against him, LHB smashed him in 2011 to the tune of .900+ OPS. That won't fly as a SP.
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Re: Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby silverZ » Mon Mar 05, 2012 10:33 am

Very nice research dclark. ;-D

I'm willing to take a chance on Sale considering how late he's going. He was a starter in college a couple years ago. He has 3 solid pitches and decent control. I also have huge man crush Feliz. I think he'll have a first half similar to what Pineda did last year.

I have no interest in Crow/Bard/Chapman outside of deep leagues.
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Re: Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Mon Mar 05, 2012 11:06 am

I really like Chris Sale as well. He seemed to be a pretty good starter in college so it doesnt seem like a drastic change for him. I'm hoping he K's around 1 per inning and i wont be concerned at how many innings he tops out at. Here's to the Sox not going with a 6 man rotation like last year.

As for the the remaining four: Willing to take chances on Bard and Feliz, not touching Crow or Chapman.
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Re: Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby kab21 » Mon Mar 05, 2012 12:28 pm

they fit my profile of guys to grab late-ish with upside. At that point if they don't work then I can dump them and not be out a lot.

Feliz goes to early typically so Sale and Bard interest me the most. Crow doesn't interest me.
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Re: Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby Element » Mon Mar 05, 2012 3:11 pm

kab21 wrote:they fit my profile of guys to grab late-ish with upside. At that point if they don't work then I can dump them and not be out a lot.

Feliz goes to early typically so Sale and Bard interest me the most. Crow doesn't interest me.


This is kind of where I am too. I'm not targeting any of these guys, but I will look at Sale once things begin to dry up. The few times I've watched him over the past year+ I've been impressed. Even with Bard, it wouldn't shock me to see him have some early season success. He's the only other guy that I'm even somewhat interested in.
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Re: Relievers Turning Starters: What To Expect?

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Mar 05, 2012 4:26 pm

I can't believe Feliz is being drafted so high, yet nobody wants Chris Sale. After that stinker of a year from Feliz (ERA was good, everythign else was really bad) I'm extremely skeptical about how he'll translate to being a starter. If only they'd never made him a reliever in the first place he could have built up arm strength and acclimated to being an starting pitcher.
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