There was identical sentiment last season, people drafted him late, thought he would be an Ace at Dodger Stadium, as his career #s there had indicated was a good possibility, and then on August 1st his ERA was over 5, was 7 - 10, and 8 of his previous 9 starts were pretty bad. People started dropping him. It had been half a season, after all, you couldn't blame them. Someone earlier said, "That's why you've gotta give these guys time and not give up on them." -- this is always a hindsight move. You hang onto some guys and sometimes they right the ship, but sometimes they just suck all year. The biggest reason he saw a severe drop in ERA the 2nd half of last season was that he got 8 starts against the following teams: Mets, Padres, Natinals, Pirates. He had a rough one vs Washington, and did well against Philly in LA. The beautiful thing is he'll probably get all those teams down the stretch again this year, so even if he's having a rough season, he may be a guy to add come mid-August, depending on what the Dodger schedule looks like.
Lilly should get more respect in deeper leagues or no bench leagues but he doesn't really carry enough upside for me to draft in the later rds. I'll take him at some point but I can understand waiting.
kab21 wrote:Lilly should get more respect in deeper leagues or no bench leagues but he doesn't really carry enough upside for me to draft in the later rds. I'll take him at some point but I can understand waiting.
Kind of like Buehrle and, until last year, Dempster. Old veterans that no one gets dazzled about but are great to add some stability at the end of the staff. Derek Lowe used to be that guy for years.
I have seen him going way too late as well. Part of it is he is old and boring, part of it is people really undervalue WHIP for pitchers. That high K young guy looks great but when he spits out a 1.42 WHIP it just kills his value.
The gravy train is going to stop sometime, and I don't want to be on it when it does
Basically this. You just have to wonder when it will all stop. He typically throws 86-89 mph. It's a wonder that he gets anyone out. I guess this goes to show that he knows what he's doing, but the guy scares me. I may take a look later in drafts if I feel like i need to stabilize my WHIP, but I usually go into my drafts making that an emphasis. So I use my latter round picks on upside plays. I suppose that if you draft someone like Scherzer or Morrow then Lilly could be a decent compliment later.