Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby Skin Blues » Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:20 am

I wonder which feat was accomplished more often last year; .261 xBA in the second half or hitting 3 HR in a single game.

In all seriousness the crowding that the Angels have between Wells, Hunter, Bourjos, Morales, Trumbo, Pujols, Abreu and Trout is just about as much of a concern as Wells' nosedive last season. If he gets full-time ABs and can get his average up to .270 then yeah, he'll be a steal. But what are the chances of both of those things happening? 10%? If they manage to trade one or two of those guys before the season starts and/or Trumbo sticks at 3B then I actually might be more interested in giving him a shot in a mixed league. Too many ifs though. He'll probably be taken before I'm comfortable drafting him.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3082
(Past Year: 110)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby dclark0699 » Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:01 am

I was running a comparsion between Vernon Wells and Lance Berkman when I noticed a little trend. Vernon Wells is the bizarro Lance Berkman, pretty much doing the exact opposite every season based on age. So based only on this, I expect moderate Vernon Wells improvement this year. Then I'm buying Vernon Wells big time next season.

Image
Image
dclark0699
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1775
Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Ohio State University

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:07 am

Of course, it's only a minor detail that Vernon's wOBA last season was 60 points less than Berkman's career low. Minor detail.
Skin Blues
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar

Posts: 3082
(Past Year: 110)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby dclark0699 » Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:10 am

Skin Blues wrote:Of course, it's only a minor detail that Vernon's wOBA last season was 60 points less than Berkman's career low. Minor detail.


Hence me saying "Moderate Vernon Wells improvement" and not "Vernon Wells will be a spectacular baseball player"
Image
dclark0699
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1775
Joined: 13 Jan 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Ohio State University

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby reiser » Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:08 am

Skin Blues wrote:Of course, it's only a minor detail that Vernon's wOBA last season was 60 points less than Berkman's career low. Minor detail.


well I guess if nothing else you should have no trouble getting Wells late.

Not to hijack, but I have noticed Wells is going before Bay on the ADP charts, and I kind of view them as the same player-relatively young (32) with somewhat of a track record.

What do you think of Bay's chances for a bounceback?
reiser
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 641
Joined: 17 Feb 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby MasterX1918 » Wed Mar 07, 2012 11:15 am

I think Wells is a safer pick, but thats just me. Even when Vernon Wells was at his worst last year the guy still managed to blast 25 homers, if that same power carries over to this season and he manages to bring his contact rate to normal levels he could have a fantastic year hitting behind Pujols (.270, 25 homers and 80 rbis is what i'm feeling). Call me an optimist, but Wells only drawback could be being pressed for playing time by phenom Mike Trout.

Jason Bay is a health risk with that rib issue and he can't figure out how to hit in citi field, not to mention he's hitting in a considerably worst lineup. However both issues could both be subsided with Citi field moving its fences in and Bay being healthy (i've yet to read about any setbacks). However, when you get down to the 20+ rounds and you're stuck deciding between Wells and Bay you really can't make a "correct" choice, forecasting either guy to have a big year is like reaching into a bag of trash and hoping to pull out a gem. Both players carry a large amount of inherent risk and it would be tough to consider one safer than the other.
Last edited by MasterX1918 on Wed Mar 07, 2012 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Image
MasterX1918
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 2150
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 13 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 07, 2012 12:58 pm

I would like Wells a lot more if they didn't have so many bats. If he comes out slow I could see him start to lose some playing time against RHP which he hit under .200 against last year. Bay should play every day which may or may not be a good thing~.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby Tavish » Wed Mar 07, 2012 2:25 pm

I wouldn't be expecting last year's Berkman out of this year's Wells. I would be somewhat surprised if this year's Wells was as valuable as last year's Wells.
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11071
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby Broncmet724 » Wed Mar 07, 2012 4:21 pm

he's just bad, I hope Mike Trout doesn't listen to a thing he says when it comes to hitting
Image
Broncmet724 Beginner
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1754
Joined: 8 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On the outside looking in

Re: Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Mar 07, 2012 5:23 pm

MasterX1918 wrote:I think Wells is a safer pick, but thats just me. Even when Vernon Wells was at his worst last year the guy still managed to blast 25 homers, if that same power carries over to this season and he manages to bring his contact rate to normal levels he could have a fantastic year hitting behind Pujols (.270, 25 homers and 80 rbis is what i'm feeling). Call me an optimist, but Wells only drawback could be being pressed for playing time by phenom Mike Trout.

Jason Bay is a health risk with that rib issue and he can't figure out how to hit in citi field, not to mention he's hitting in a considerably worst lineup. However both issues could both be subsided with Citi field moving its fences in and Bay being healthy (i've yet to read about any setbacks). However, when you get down to the 20+ rounds and you're stuck deciding between Wells and Bay you really can't make a "correct" choice, forecasting either guy to have a big year is like reaching into a bag of trash and hoping to pull out a gem. Both players carry a large amount of inherent risk and it would be tough to consider one safer than the other.

I believe the projected opening day lineup through the first 5 batters for the Angels goes like this:

Aybar
Kendrick
Pujols
Hunter
Wells



That to me sounds like a good oppurtunity for massive RBI production from both Hunter and Wells.

Jason Bay on the other hand has to hope for an Ike Davis breakout and a David Wright bounce back AND he needs to bounce back in order to have good RBI production.


I prefer Vernon Wells. Yes Mike Trout is knocking on the door, but Wells has the luxury of a DH slot, and I still feel the OF spot is his to lose. I'm hoping wells starts the season off well so they have no reason to pull him. Given a full season, Wells is a 30 HR 100 RBi sleeper.


On a side note, I'm not sure Mike Trout will be so great right off the bat. He only has had 2 minor seasons and hasnt seen a triple A at bat yet either. Not to mention he didnt wow anybody in his short time in the majors last season. I'm not big on Trout at all this year and he still needs a little more seasoning before he lands on my fantasy team. Just my opinion.
NikkiSixx
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Response TeamPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 2587
(Past Year: 432)
Joined: 26 Jan 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: 1st place!

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests

cron
Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact