Is Vernon Wells this years Lance Berkman?

[joshhoppe]

I know I will be on the lookout for him in the last few rounds of every draft this year. He's worth at least that much. If he tanks ST games then yeah drop and move on

[kab21]

This is the prime reason that BABIP needs to be looked at with a huge grain of salt for hitters. They have immense control over their own BABIP and sometimes they just plain suck. And Wells just plain sucks. He'll struggle to get playing time and he'll not be worth using when he's in the lineup. He overhauled his swing and approach in the offseason so I suppose there's some nonzero chance he has a renaissance but I wouldn't bet on it.

These are his BAPIP's for the last 10 yrs. Can you pick out which one is different? Or should I bold it for you?

.214
.272
.279
.293
.262
.307
.270
.285
.307
.282

[Skin Blues]

Thanks bro, I realize his BABIP stinks. It will be better in 2012. He will still suck because he's not a good hitter. You know what was also worse last year than his prime years? Everything. He was just about the worst hitter in the league across the board among full time players. A slight BABIP correction is not going to change enough to make him relevant. Most washed up hitters would have a terrible BABIP if they were still being given playing time due to an enormous contract.

[kab21]

Thanks bro, I realize his BABIP stinks. It will be better in 2012. He will still suck because he's not a good hitter. You know what was also worse last year than his prime years? Everything. He was just about the worst hitter in the league across the board among full time players. A slight BABIP correction is not going to change enough to make him relevant. Most washed up hitters would have a terrible BABIP if they were still being given playing time due to an enormous contract.

60 pts of BAPIP is not a slight correction imo and he's a year removed from a .846 OPS season. It's possible that he is finished but we're talking about a player that will probably be available at pick 300.

[GiantsFan14]

Code: Select all

       BABIP xBABIP
2009   .279   .277
2010   .272   .277
2011   .214   .254
Career .282   .293

You're both right. Combination of being terrible and unlucky.

[oscar15]

Carlos Beltran is this years Lance Berkman

[silverZ]

Not a chance he goes .300 30 hr. Good value for where he's going? Maybe. He could continue being one of the worst regulars in the MLB.

[NikkiSixx]

Not a chance he goes .300 30 hr. Good value for where he's going? Maybe. He could continue being one of the worst regulars in the MLB.

I still think Wells has quite a bit left in the tank, he is just 33 years old.

Also, he HAS hit 30 home runs 3 different times in his MLB career. He also HAS hit over .300 3 different times in his career.

Is anybody EXPECTING him to hit .300 30 HR? Absolutely not, you would be crazy to expect that. But it isnt completely out of the question, Wells has proved himself capable of being a very productive hitter. Last year was god awful, there is no arguing that. But despite barely making it over the mendoza line, he still managed to hit 25 home runs.

I'm expecting Wells to hit around his career average, which is .274, and hit around 25 HR. He should also get plenty of RBI oppurtunities with Albert Pujols being added to the lineup. And who knows, he could get lucky and outperform those numbers.

I still think he is a steal this late in the draft no matter which way you look at it. Or for 1 dollar, depending what type of draft you are doing. He IS worth the risk IMO.

[converge241]

I could see a teammate of his being more likely than Wells - Hunter

Not saying Hunter = 2011 Berkman just see him as more likely

But hey to the original poster, depending on the size of the league Vernon goes undrafted sometimes - if you are right big coup for you on your teams

[Ender]

I also think Hunter is being underrated this season. I'm not a huge Vernon Wells guy but I would add that his 2nd half last year he hit 15 HR and had 7 SB with an xBA of .261 which is a lot more in line with 2010 than the first half. That whole Angels OF situation kind of scares me though since they have too many bats which will likely chip away a little bit at all of their values.