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How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

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How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby redrob098 » Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:16 am

What I mean is in a 12 team h2h catagories league, I'm trying to figure out how many total Runs, HR's, RBI's, AVG, and OPS I would aim for in hitting and W, L, ERA, WHIP, Saves, and K's i would need for pitching. I'm just looking to have a successful draft and i know its much harder then taking the best available player. I've always been great at fantasy football but baseball is so much more complicated :( Thanks for the help. WHIR if i can.
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Re: How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby GardnerRunsRampant » Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:33 am

Check out the article archive on this site. Not too long ago they wrote about doing z-score analysis on your projections to get an idea of how much each player contributes to each category relative to the rest of your sample of players. As players are drafted add up those z-scores in each category for each team to see how you stack up.


*UPDATE - Here's the article link I was referring to. If you've never done anything like this, it is a good description of how to start:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2012 ... values.php

For AVG i use the following formula - AB*(AVG - MEDIAN(AVG)) before doing the z-scores of that value. For SLG I also multiply by AB's. For OBP, I prefer to multiply by PA's instead (If you just have AB's and BB's, just add them together to get a rough PA number).

On the pitching side, loses of course, you want to put a negative sign in front of the z score formula (obv the lower the losses the better). For ERA/WHIP, do the same as for AVG, but multiply by IP (again the negative sign). If you have k/9 as a stat, use the following formula - ((K/IP)*9)*K. Then do the z-score off that.
Last edited by GardnerRunsRampant on Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby Bloody Sox » Fri Mar 02, 2012 7:52 am

Personally, I like to use my own league's final standings from the last 3 years. This I think is the best way to get a good idea of how many total points you need to win your league and what you should target in each category. If you are in a 12 team, 5x5 roto league, and the average champion won with 100 points, then you should target finishing 3rd in each category (which works out nicely, because its tough to plan to win every category). So then I just figure out what 3rd in each category would require and aim for that. I keep track of stats with an Excel spreadsheet during the draft and it tells me how well I'm doing trying to reach those targets.

If you have the stats and category breakdowns from your past seasons, you can do the same thing in H2H, but it might be tough to go back and get them (I don't think Yahoo shows them, not sure about ESPN or CBS).

There is a Razzball article this year that breaks it down for different sized leagues on ESPN and Yahoo:http://razzball.com/10-14-15-16-mixed-league-numbers-to-win-your-espn-and-yahoo-leagues/. Maybe you can adapt that to your needs.

However you do it, it doesn't need to be perfect, since the draft won't go exactly as you planned. You just want rough targets to shoot for so you are not too lopsided at the end of the draft.
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Re: How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby Broncmet724 » Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:22 am

Razzball had something on their stie recently about what scoring totals you would need in roto for different league types, ESPN, Yahoo, 10-16 teams if I remember right. You might need to look back a page or two in the older articles to find it
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Re: How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby GardnerRunsRampant » Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:46 am

The system above others are pointing out while better than nothing, has it's flaws. First not all batting averages, obp, slg, era, whip's are equal. For those non-counting stats, you need a better way to see who is going to provide better production for those categories. A .280 avg with 600 ab's is much more valuable than a .300 avg over 400. You might say, well that's common sense. However, during a draft, you need a quicker way to be able to see how valuable players are relative to other players in those categories.

Using the article above and the formula's I described, it is very simple to use excel to create these values of your projections to see just how valuable players are. It is also a good way to find true sleepers in comparing the value you calculate versus their MDP.

Also, if trades are allowed during your draft (or if you can agree to trade later), drafting the best player available is the right call. Use that value to trade for multiple pieces or try to combine pieces with that player to upgrade to an even better player! ;-D
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Re: How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby Bloody Sox » Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:02 am

GardnerRunsRampant wrote:The system above others are pointing out while better than nothing, has it's flaws. First not all batting averages, obp, slg, era, whip's are equal. For those non-counting stats, you need a better way to see who is going to provide better production for those categories. A .280 avg with 600 ab's is much more valuable than a .300 avg over 400. You might say, well that's common sense. However, during a draft, you need a quicker way to be able to see how valuable players are relative to other players in those categories.

Using the article above and the formula's I described, it is very simple to use excel to create these values of your projections to see just how valuable players are. It is also a good way to find true sleepers in comparing the value you calculate versus their MDP.

Also, if trades are allowed during your draft (or if you can agree to trade later), drafting the best player available is the right call. Use that value to trade for multiple pieces or try to combine pieces with that player to upgrade to an even better player! ;-D


Gardner, what you are describing is not what the OP was asking. He was asking for category targets, not how to calculate player values (which is obviously important). You like to know what you are aiming for overall to know if you are drafting way too many steals or are way below what you need for HR, etc. Taking this to the next step, you can compare every team's draft to see how the standings based on projections are looking.
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Re: How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby GardnerRunsRampant » Fri Mar 02, 2012 9:18 am

Bloody Sox wrote:
GardnerRunsRampant wrote:The system above others are pointing out while better than nothing, has it's flaws. First not all batting averages, obp, slg, era, whip's are equal. For those non-counting stats, you need a better way to see who is going to provide better production for those categories. A .280 avg with 600 ab's is much more valuable than a .300 avg over 400. You might say, well that's common sense. However, during a draft, you need a quicker way to be able to see how valuable players are relative to other players in those categories.

Using the article above and the formula's I described, it is very simple to use excel to create these values of your projections to see just how valuable players are. It is also a good way to find true sleepers in comparing the value you calculate versus their MDP.

Also, if trades are allowed during your draft (or if you can agree to trade later), drafting the best player available is the right call. Use that value to trade for multiple pieces or try to combine pieces with that player to upgrade to an even better player! ;-D


Gardner, what you are describing is not what the OP was asking. He was asking for category targets, not how to calculate player values (which is obviously important). You like to know what you are aiming for overall to know if you are drafting way too many steals or are way below what you need for HR, etc. Taking this to the next step, you can compare every team's draft to see how the standings based on projections are looking.


I understand what the OP is asking. Tracking each team's strengths/weaknesses with z-scores during the draft will allow you to map how much your going to need to target in each category on a continuing basis to beat your competitors. I do this in my drafts, and can tell you from experience that this information is all I personally need to accomplish what the OP was asking.

Is it the only way, no. Your way is solid, but again, what do you do about the non-counting categories. How would you advise the OP on that?
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Re: How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:13 am

Sometimes you want to be lopsided in a H2H league. If you see that there's a stat you can easily punt that doesn't have a high correlation to the other stats (SB for example; small correlation to runs but usually they're specialist players you can avoid) then you can aim for 85% of the top score in each category or 2nd place player's score (instead of 75% or 3rd place), and ignore SBs. I don't play H2H but this seems to be a strategy some people use.

For roto I typically aim for the 3rd place total in each category. But something to keep in mind is how easy it is to find replacement stats on the waiver wire. New closers pop up all the time so maybe you want to put less emphasis on saves and grab a bunch of speculative guys. There was an article way back almost 10 years ago that I have saved at home with a breakdown of the most efficient category weights... not even sure if it would still apply or if tendencies have changed, but the gist is that you want to put more emphasis on the reliable categories. Something to look itno though. I'm sure a google search would find similar information.
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Re: How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby shawngee03 » Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:29 am

since you state is a h2h league im wondering why you even bring up point totals. i can see doing this for roto...but h2h should just be draft best available player

my theory has been and always will be power, power and more power in h2h leagues. no real need to be balanced at the sacrifice of power. if you end up w no steals...no biggie. in roto that woudl kill you as you cant win while getting last in a cat...but h2h you can
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Re: How do you determine how many of each catagory you need?

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Fri Mar 02, 2012 11:13 am

shawngee03 wrote:since you state is a h2h league im wondering why you even bring up point totals. i can see doing this for roto...but h2h should just be draft best available player


And thats a big mistake.
I just read a good article about that here:
http://www.ultimatefantasydrafthelper.com/tactic
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