Fade2White12 wrote:Over the last three seasons, he's had the highest K/9 of any starting pitcher at 10.12. Lincecum is second at 9.79. And since coming to Toronto (as already mentioned), he's had FIP/XFIPs at least a run better than his actual ERA.
I'll always be a buyer on him, especially considering those peripherals. Now it's possible that this is a trend and he'll never bring his fantasy stats in line with his underlying metrics, but at his ADP, I don't really see an SP with that upside.
I think Jiminez does, and I'd take him just before Morrow.
Looking at his data it seems like he has some sort of problem with pitching while ahead of players and pitching with runners on because that is where most of the abnormal BABIP comes from, it seems more systemic than it is just random. While I'm ok drafting him for his upside I don't think this is a case of just a bad series of luck either. It is something he could figure out and suddenly get better with though.
I don't think it's luck either, but I think it's fixable. Nobody has ever shown these tendencies, it just doesn't happen. Nobody has that kind of ability with the bases empty and actually maintains the peripherals with men on base while seeing BABIP spike up so high.
Fade2White12 wrote:Over the last three seasons, he's had the highest K/9 of any starting pitcher at 10.12. Lincecum is second at 9.79. And since coming to Toronto (as already mentioned), he's had FIP/XFIPs at least a run better than his actual ERA.
I'll always be a buyer on him, especially considering those peripherals. Now it's possible that this is a trend and he'll never bring his fantasy stats in line with his underlying metrics, but at his ADP, I don't really see an SP with that upside.
I think Jiminez does, and I'd take him just before Morrow.
But they don't have that similar of ADPs, except for Yahoo! where they are 1 pick apart. CBS, Yahoo, MDC, etc. have Ubaldo several rounds ahead. At ESPN, Morrow's going as the #49 SP, several rounds after players like Kuroda and Fister. At MDC, he's 50th, after Trevor Cahill and Wandy Rodriguez.
Skin Blues wrote:I don't think it's luck either, but I think it's fixable. Nobody has ever shown these tendencies, it just doesn't happen. Nobody has that kind of ability with the bases empty and actually maintains the peripherals with men on base while seeing BABIP spike up so high.
Manny Parra was like that and never fixed it but he got hurt before we could see if it was just luck or not.
Mookie4ever wrote:I've got no confidence in Morrow breaking out. Going to be a great source of k and middling wins but not a plus player for era or whip. If you're looking for a Jays starter to put it all together this year Brett Cecil is your man. He's in awesome shape and seems like he has gotten his head together.
While true, Cecil doesn't have the skills or stuff to be more than an average pitcher anyway. He's not a particularly good fantasy option due to the lack of strikeouts either.
As for Morrow? The skills and stuff are clearly there to be a pitching force in this league. The issue for him remains pitching out of the stretch.
I'm not trying to knock on Morrow too hard because I obviously love his dominance but at this point in his career he's looking like Ricky Nolasco to me. Every metric I can look at says he should be better than he is. His dominance is off the charts but he needs to get out of the AL East or figure out how to pitch his way out of jams or something. That strand rate is terrible. If he could pull a Garza or Cueto and start pitching to more ground balls then he might find some success, but I don't see it happening.
I'll take a flyer on Henderson Alvarez in the 26th round instead. I know he's raw but so far he looks like Ricky Romero with better control. If I'm taking any late round AL East starter then he's my guy.
All that said, if Morrow (or Nolasco for that matter) is falling to a reasonable draft position then I will definitely grab one of them on the off chance that this is the year they put it together.
Mookie4ever wrote:I've got no confidence in Morrow breaking out. Going to be a great source of k and middling wins but not a plus player for era or whip. If you're looking for a Jays starter to put it all together this year Brett Cecil is your man. He's in awesome shape and seems like he has gotten his head together.
While true, Cecil doesn't have the skills or stuff to be more than an average pitcher anyway. He's not a particularly good fantasy option due to the lack of strikeouts either.
As for Morrow? The skills and stuff are clearly there to be a pitching force in this league. The issue for him remains pitching out of the stretch.
Mookie4ever wrote:I've got no confidence in Morrow breaking out. Going to be a great source of k and middling wins but not a plus player for era or whip. If you're looking for a Jays starter to put it all together this year Brett Cecil is your man. He's in awesome shape and seems like he has gotten his head together.
While true, Cecil doesn't have the skills or stuff to be more than an average pitcher anyway. He's not a particularly good fantasy option due to the lack of strikeouts either.
As for Morrow? The skills and stuff are clearly there to be a pitching force in this league. The issue for him remains pitching out of the stretch.
And consistency
Oh, I'd say Morrow's getting pretty consistent at underperforming his peripherals.
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by cordscords » Fri Mar 02, 2012 2:45 pm 
But they don't have that similar of ADPs, except for Yahoo! where they are 1 pick apart. CBS, Yahoo, MDC, etc. have Ubaldo several rounds ahead. At ESPN, Morrow's going as the #49 SP, several rounds after players like Kuroda and Fister. At MDC, he's 50th, after Trevor Cahill and Wandy Rodriguez. 
