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For those who wait on Pitching

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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby West » Sun Mar 04, 2012 5:14 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:

At this point I'd prefer Lilly over Chris Carpenter, Carpenter gets taken quite a few rounds earlier. You just have to take full advantage of whats given to you. ;-D


Definitely. I was merely using these guys as an example. I'd much rather have Lilly in the 22nd or whatever then Carpenter in the 9th/10th or so. I think the wins will be declining with the abscence of Pujols and he's getting up there.
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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby Montana168 » Sun Mar 04, 2012 11:08 pm

jlm53089 wrote:What about a guy like Chad Billingsley?

I have seen him going late and I have been waiting for him to have that really big year.
I think targeting him towards rounds 18-20 is an awesome idea.


Completely agree here. If he goes past the 18th in any of my leagues, he will be on each team. I'm always a sucker for him, but his potential to be the #2 in LA still remains, IMO.
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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby kab21 » Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:06 pm

I just took Cahill at pick #261 in a cafe draft. I'm very surprised that he lasted this long considering the OUTRAGE in the cafe when Oakland traded Gio and him for flashier propsects. I thought he was a little overrated in that thread but he does have a little projection left as a 24 yr old.
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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby MasterX1918 » Wed Mar 07, 2012 4:44 pm

you have no clue, I just got Cahill with the 293rd pick in the leftovers league.
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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Mar 07, 2012 4:58 pm

Just pray he doesn't massacre your ERA and WHIP before you drop him in May. I can see him being a nice spot start for intradivisional games, especially in SD and SF, but other than that he's not very useful. Especially not in a mixed league.
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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby Maris09 » Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:16 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Just pray he doesn't massacre your ERA and WHIP before you drop him in May. I can see him being a nice spot start for intradivisional games, especially in SD and SF, but other than that he's not very useful. Especially not in a mixed league.

Tough to say that about Cahill. The guy had one very useful year, and then a pretty bad season last year (but had some nagging injuries if I remember correctly).

A move to the NL and more specifically the NL West, should give him a chance to bounce back. I think it's a stretch to dub him useless. Especially where he's going.
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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 07, 2012 6:50 pm

2010 was nothing but a massive fluke so there was no reason to own Cahill last year. However, he did see a spike in his K% so maybe with a move to the NL he comes back on the radar for this year. If he can get back to 7+ K/9 like in the minors and combine that with that GB% you have Brandon Webb. Most likely you just have another pitcher that is much better in real life than in fantasy like most heavy groundball guys are and he hurts you in K and WHIP so the ERA doesn't do enough to make him valuable.
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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby Maris09 » Wed Mar 07, 2012 8:45 pm

What makes his '10 a fluke and not his '11? I know his K rate in '10 wasn't very good, but like you pointed out it did improve last year. Factor in the move to the NL and getting to face pitchers, I could see that uptick continuing.

Again I am not very high on the guy, really only giving him thought because of how late he is going, but Cahill is still a very very young pitcher (23 or 24 I think). Hard to think he doesn't have any upside. I'd say he definitely does for where he's going in drafts.
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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby kab21 » Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:21 pm

Ender wrote:2010 was nothing but a massive fluke so there was no reason to own Cahill last year. However, he did see a spike in his K% so maybe with a move to the NL he comes back on the radar for this year. If he can get back to 7+ K/9 like in the minors and combine that with that GB% you have Brandon Webb. Most likely you just have another pitcher that is much better in real life than in fantasy like most heavy groundball guys are and he hurts you in K and WHIP so the ERA doesn't do enough to make him valuable.


If the K rate bumps up a little and throws a few extra innings he'll K 160 or so. that doesn't hurt you unless you're playing in a league with innings limits. Most projections have him with around a 1.30 WHIP instead of last year's 1.46. and he should be perfect for Chase Field so he'll actually see the benefit of moving to the NL West with the awful offenses and friendly ballparks on the road.
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Re: For those who wait on Pitching

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:35 pm

Maris09 wrote:What makes his '10 a fluke and not his '11? I know his K rate in '10 wasn't very good, but like you pointed out it did improve last year. Factor in the move to the NL and getting to face pitchers, I could see that uptick continuing.

Again I am not very high on the guy, really only giving him thought because of how late he is going, but Cahill is still a very very young pitcher (23 or 24 I think). Hard to think he doesn't have any upside. I'd say he definitely does for where he's going in drafts.


Guys with a 56% groundball rate and a BABIP of .236 just don't happen, the peripherals behind the stats just made no sense.

If the K rate bumps up a little and throws a few extra innings he'll K 160 or so. that doesn't hurt you unless you're playing in a league with innings limits. Most projections have him with around a 1.30 WHIP instead of last year's 1.46. and he should be perfect for Chase Field so he'll actually see the benefit of moving to the NL West with the awful offenses and friendly ballparks on the road.


Sure, if it bumps up. But it is more likely that it regresses towards his career level and the move to the NL just puts him back around 6 k/9 and that isn't very helpful.
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