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Not very bold prediction

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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby Tavish » Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:48 pm

Ender wrote:
jorgesca wrote:Can't find a rotation I like better in the NL other than the Phillies'


Then you sure like their rotation a lot more than I do~. No way I'd take them over say the Brewers or the Giants or the Cardinals off the top of my head. Part of it is probably my low opinion of Edwin Jackson and Lannan though and the fact that at least 1 and most likely 2 of their starting 5 will go down with injuries since they have so many health risks.

Chances are 1 or 2 of pretty much every rotation will go down with injury at some point in the season. You must have an extremely low opinion of those two if you don't think they will be decent #4 and #5 starter options for a team.
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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby Padsin05 » Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:50 pm

jorgesca wrote:Can't find a rotation I like better in the NL other than the Phillies'


Ill take the Braves, Brewers, Giants, Cards if Wainwright is healthy, even the Dodgers.
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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby jorgesca » Thu Mar 01, 2012 2:57 pm

Never mind the Giants rotation. But if injury concerns you I can't see how you take the Cardinals. The Brewers MAY have a better 1-3 but I like how deep the Nats rotation is.

It has the potential (key word) to have 3 Aces. Strasburg, Gio and Zimmerman all were prospected as aces at some point, hell even Jackson was.
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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby Curtis Pride » Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:09 pm

They have proven all-stars at 3b and RF (assuming Werth rebounds close to his prior level)

They have four starting pitchers that will likely average 4 WAR during the season - that is an elite starting rotation.

They have a very strong bullpen with Storen and Clippard

Morse isn't a star, but has shown great offensive value

Espinosa had the 3rd best WAR in the NL for a 2B - and that was while he was hitting under .240. He cuts some of those Ks, and gets his offense up closer to .750/.800 OPS and he's an elite 2b given his phenomenal defense.

Wilson Ramos is a phenomenal defensive catcher, was 5th in WAR for NL catchers and as a 24 year old put up a near .800 OPS

Adam LaRoche is coming off injury, but isn't exactly old, and over his career has pretty good (~2 WAR) 1B

Ian Desmond is awful. As is Bernadeina/Ankiel. But the Nationals comfortably better than league average at every other position except 1B (and even that can be debated since LaRoche is a .275/.347/.492 hitter vs. righties - so with the right platoon partner - 1B could be well above league average) as well as SS and CF - two pretty important areas to be awful.

However, Werth could move to CF when Harper is ready at RF, and Espinosa could move to SS (and likely will) when Anthony Rendon is ready.

I'm not saying this is a 95 win team, but this is a team that should battle for the playoffs baring injury and barring Werth really being this bad.
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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:31 pm

They have four starting pitchers that will likely average 4 WAR during the season - that is an elite starting rotation.


That is the part I'm not buying, we'll have to watch and see how it plays out. I'll be more surprised if 3 of them end with 4 WAR than if none of them make it.

Guess I should have made my initial post a Bold Prediction instead of a not very bold~.
Last edited by Ender on Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby Maris09 » Thu Mar 01, 2012 3:48 pm

I'm hoping Jackson can take whatever he gained by being with Dave Duncan for part of last year, and keep it going into this season. I'd say Nat's starting pitching is on par with SF and I'd even take them over STL this year if Duncan ends up not coming back.
Milw has a great top of the rotation, but I'm not a huge believer in Marcum, Wolf and Narveson.

Nat's won 80 games last year without Strass for most of the season, J. Zimm on an innings limit, no Gio, no Laroche, Ryan Zimmerman getting less than 400 AB, and Morse not really getting going until a couple months in. I like their chances of mid to high 80's wins, and that puts them in contention (especially if things don't break right health wise with Philly). Nats to win that Div at +1200 is pretty nice value IMO.
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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby Ender » Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:06 pm

Nat's won 80 games last year without Strass for most of the season, J. Zimm on an innings limit, no Gio, no Laroche, Ryan Zimmerman getting less than 400 AB, and Morse not really getting going until a couple months in. I like their chances of mid to high 80's wins, and that puts them in contention (especially if things don't break right health wise with Philly). Nats to win that Div at +1200 is pretty nice value IMO.


Fair enough, but the pythagorean record was only 78 wins and it took a very hot finish to reach those 80 wins. As late as Sept 10th they were 66-77. They finished with fewer pythagorean wins than the Mets did last year. This isn't a team that is a lock to win mid 80s, it is one where if things go right they might win it.
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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby Curtis Pride » Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:09 pm

Ender wrote:
They have four starting pitchers that will likely average 4 WAR during the season - that is an elite starting rotation.


That is the part I'm not buying, we'll have to watch and see how it plays out. I'll be more surprised if 3 of them end with 4 WAR than if none of them make it.

Guess I should have made my initial post a Bold Prediction instead of a not very bold~.


Edwin Jackson has had WARs of 3.6, 3.8, and 3.8 the last three years.
Gio has been 3.2 and 3.5 the last two years, and is now moving to the NL (though moving from Oakland to Washington will likely mitigate a lot of the benefit)
Zimmerman was 3.6 in 160 innings, the first year back from injury (which is a 4.5 WAR full season pace)
Strasburgh has amassed 3.7 WAR in 92 career innings.

So if E Jax and Gio combine for around 7 WAR, Zimmerman ends up around 4-4.5 WAR, Strasburg needs 4.5-5 WAR for that foursome to average 16 WAR, which, even with an innings cap is pretty conservative based on what Strasburgh has done.

Fangraphs readers are projecting an average of 3.8 WAR for the Nationals top 4 starters.
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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby ichirosan » Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:02 pm

Skin Blues wrote:I don't think they're over-rated. I haven't heard people talk about them like they're playoff favourites. I would bet on them being a .500 team but I doubt they'll have a shot at the playoffs because the Phillies are so dominant and the second place team in the Central will be tough to beat. If there's hype, it's probably because they have two of the biggest prospects in baseball in Strasburg and Harper, and have shown a willingness to toss around large amounts of cash.


They are overrated.

I just saw Jayson Stark's article where he polled GMs about which teams have a legitimate chance of winning the World Series. The Nationals were a unanimous pick, while teams like the Red Sox, Brewers and Giants weren't.

Mind you, I think they will be good, but they're still a year away.
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Re: Not very bold prediction

Postby Maris09 » Thu Mar 01, 2012 6:27 pm

Hell as long as they win 83 games for me I don't care what they do :-D
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