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not my guys

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:35 am

This is just an absurdly long winded post about guys you aren't likely to find me owning because they are going to0 early. Keeping this to the first 7ish rounds or so since the draftable range of players is so huge after that point.

1. Miguel Cabrera - 3B is just not shallow enough for the position to play a large role here. He has never produced top 4 value and has only once reached top 5 because the lack of SB just kills his top end value. Last year he earned almost $20 less than Kemp to give you an idea of the huge gap created here. I would much rather take Braun, Kemp or Pujols than Cabrera at #1.

2. Troy Tulowitski - SS is not nearly as shallow as people make it out to be. Positional scarcity should almost never be why you take someone in the 1st round in the first place, get your value early. Add the injury risk, the collapse rate of MI, the fact he isn't stealing much anymore and the mediocre lineup and I just hate this pick at #5.

3. Jose Bautista - He is a great real player but I think he honestly is more of a .270 hitter and as he ages his SB are going to go away. The Blue Jays don't have the OBP in front of him or the SLG behind him to make him put up elite R or RBI either. He was not a top 10 player last year in what should be considered his upside at this point.

4. Early pitchers - I will just clump these guys together. The injury risk is too high, the values later on are too high and ERA/WHIP/W are just too random to take a pitcher in the 1st round. Kershaw's injury risk is huge so he is particularly a bad risk, Verlander's final stats are flukey and he has a horrible defense behind him. If you have to take a pitcher in the top 15 at least make it Halladay who only has age based risks.

5. Mike Stanton - I absolutely love this guy but he is being over drafted. He has the skillset of a .250 hitter and there is a strong chance he doesn't hit 40+ HR as expected given his contact problems vs RHP. He is just way too risky to be taken early 2nd round where he is going, I've even seen him taken late 1st round.

6. 2nd tier 3B - Almost all of these guys have major risks that aren't showing up in their draft position. I'd rather go with ARod or Aramis 2 rounds later than reach for Zimmerman or Youkilis who are major injury risks or Sandoval who seems to have his weight issues again this year.

7. Early C - Taking a C in the first 5 rounds is nothing but downside, it is just horrible in a 1 C league, in a 2 C league it is just a calculated risk.

8. Jose Reyes - I mean seriously? He isn't healthy his speed is failing him some and he has always been a 2 stat guy, taking this guy in the middle of the 2nd round is horrible.

9. Zach Greinke - Man I love this guy, probably my favorite pitcher in baseball and I'm a Brewer fan which just reinforces it. I think last year was a complete fluke and he is a legitimate candidate for the Cy Young, but come on taking him in the 3rd round just kills all the upside. At that point he has to put up a CY type season to be worth it.

10. Brett Lawrie - He has tons of warts in his game, taking him over reliable 25 HR, 100 RBI guys is insane.

11. Eric Hosmer - Yeah good luck with that, mediocre lineup, stats that aren't supported by skills. A couple years from now I buy him but taking him in the 3rd or 4th round at 1B is insane.

12. Mark Reynolds - AVG is underrated. It won't surprise me if he loses his job completely. Yeah I'm not taking him in the 5th round.

13. Alex Gordon - No huge issue with him, just think he is going about 10-15 spots too early for OF. The AVG was mostly a fluke, the SB isn't really for real and the power was probably the top end. I expect a step back and not a step forward. Every single draft I've done mock or real has had Gordon go 3 rounds before I'd even consider him.
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Re: not my guys

Postby bayside » Sun Feb 26, 2012 3:01 am

reading that list It seems like you dont take any risk at all in the first 7 rounds, and are likely to miss out on any of the potentially huge breakouts.
question:
say you have 5th overall pick and Pujols, Kemp, Votto, Braun, are off the board. who are you taking?

now say you have the 8th pick, and all those guys are gone, plus AGon, Cano, and MCab. now who do you take?
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Re: not my guys

Postby Tennessee Jed » Sun Feb 26, 2012 3:31 am

I disagree with Tulo, I've done about 5 mock drafts on ESPN and he's gone 9, 9, 10,11 and 13. I would gladly take him there at the turn (depending on what size league you're in.) His production is just as good as anyone going in that range, and he's got the potential to be better. Plus you can't knock position scarcity here, he's head and shoulders above anyone at SS aside from Hanley which IMO makes him more valuable than say Votto, Upton, or Gonzalez who are going in the same range but are at far deeper positions.

Also disagree with not taking a catcher in the first 5 rounds. If Napoli falls to me in the 4th-5th rounds, I'm taking him in a heartbeat. He only had 369 AB's last year. Give him another 50-75 AB's this year in that park and lineup and he could potentially push 40 hr's and 100 rbi which not only puts him at the #1 catcher, but also puts him right up there with the elite 1B going in the first round. I'll take that any day of the week
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Re: not my guys

Postby AussieDodger » Sun Feb 26, 2012 5:00 am

1. Closers with a top 100 pick.
Not worth it

2. SP with a top 50 pick.
Verlander with pick 12 this year?? LOLOLOLOLOL :-b

3. Players I judge to be on a downward swing/nearing a cliff edge.
E.g J.Rollins, D.Uggla
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Re: not my guys

Postby West » Sun Feb 26, 2012 7:58 am

A couple notes- Kershaw's injury risk is "huge"? I disagree. Yes, he uses his slider a lot. But his workload has been closely watched by the Dodgers since he came into the league. He doesn't have the mechanics of a Lincecum or Liriano that point to future arm issues.

SS is not deep by any means. At some point in the mid-middle late first round Tulo becomes a very attractive pick. I don't find Colorado's lineup mediocre. They have Gonzalez and added Cuddyer in the offseason. If Fowler can take a step forward and get on base more then Tulo will have all he needs to justify a first round selection.

Do you honestly think anyone is drafting Bautista for his SB?

2nd tier 3B is probably where you will find some of the best value this year. I do like Aramis where he is going.

I fail to see how Hosmer's stats are not supported by skills. His peripherals and track record in the high minors support his solid season last year. .172 ISO, low K rate and normal BABIP all are right in line with his production and I see few red flags with him. Yes he will probably be taken higher than he should in many leagues.
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Re: not my guys

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 26, 2012 9:25 am

I disagree with Tulo, I've done about 5 mock drafts on ESPN and he's gone 9, 9, 10,11 and 13


I am absolutely fine with him there. I've never seen him last past pick #5 and I've seen him taken #3 a couple of times.

I will add to my post that obviously it depends on the results I have personally seen in drafts. Bautista and Tulo are going in the top 5 in every single draft I've been in and a lot of times they have gone in the top 3. If either are slipping to pick 7+ in your drafts I don't have any problems with them. They are 1st round picks, just not the sure fire top tier imo.


say you have 5th overall pick and Pujols, Kemp, Votto, Braun, are off the board. who are you taking?

now say you have the 8th pick, and all those guys are gone, plus AGon, Cano, and MCab. now who do you take?


With that 5th pick in a 5 OF league I'd probably take Upton, Cargo or Adrian Gonzalez. With the 8th pick I'm ok with Tulo at that point though I'd still personally rather have Utpon/Cargo. Cargo has the same risks as Tulo with more upside and that is with a $3 boost to Tulo for positional scarcity which I don't believe in drafting for in the first round. There is this perception that Tulo is a lock for .300, 100/30/100 when that has really been his ceiling so far and he isn't a lock for 10 SB anymore.

Do you honestly think anyone is drafting Bautista for his SB?


They are integral part of why he is an early 1st round pick, no you don't pick him for the SB but throwing in 8 SB a year certainly inflates this type of players value. The same reason everyone drafts Votto earlier than Adrian Gonzalez. Like I said last year is probably the best you can expect from him imo and he wasn't a top 10 player, he should be falling to the late 1st round from time to time but I never see him last past #5.

Also disagree with not taking a catcher in the first 5 rounds. If Napoli falls to me in the 4th-5th rounds, I'm taking him in a heartbeat


I agree with this for sure. I was talking more where they are actually taken. Napoli is gone by the early 3rd round and it is just too early. These guys I will draft but they have to fall a full round later than they typically go to make them a value.

As for my Hosmer post, pretend I said Lawrie instead of Hosmer. I actually don't hate where Hosmer is going as much since the middle ranks of 1B are so terrible. I was originally going to include both of them and I pulled the wrong one out of the discussion. Lawrie is being overdrafted, Hosmer is being aggressively drafted which is more acceptable but risky.
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Re: not my guys

Postby West » Sun Feb 26, 2012 10:01 am

Ender thank you for clarifying. I think the above post is spot on.

I also have seen Napoli ridiculously high in mocks. Guy is in a good park and a great offense but this is not a batting average you want a part of. Also with the depth they have at 1B/DH/C you could see him <400AB again if he has a subpar season. I just don't think the 3rd or even 4th or early 5th round is justified for him. I'd rather wait and go with a Mescaroso/Doumit/Martin/Salty/Perez/Lucroy bargain in the later rounds. I'll draft two of them and dump the slumper in April for a guy on the WW that someone was impatient with. The depth at catcher is actually really nice this year and Napoli is not worth anywhere near where he is going.

I don't think we need to debate Bautista and Tulo at the 5th pick or the 8th pick or whatever. When you look at the turnover within the top 15 every year (usually only 20% of the guys drafted in the top 15 return a top 15 performance) I think you can make a case for these guys anywhere in the top 10.
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Re: not my guys

Postby NickyEyes113 » Sun Feb 26, 2012 12:13 pm

My league had Miggy as the the 5th highest scoring player in whole league last season. :-S

607 Verlander
590 Ellsbury
575 Braun
575 Kershaw
573 Carbrera
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Re: not my guys

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 26, 2012 1:03 pm

NickyEyes113 wrote:My league had Miggy as the the 5th highest scoring player in whole league last season. :-S

607 Verlander
590 Ellsbury
575 Braun
575 Kershaw
573 Carbrera


Yeah my list is about standard roto/h2h. I have no idea how valuable people are in points leagues so you can safely ignore everything I say on the forums if you play those. Probably not too risky to ignore everything I say anyway! :).
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Re: not my guys

Postby Inukchuk » Sun Feb 26, 2012 4:29 pm

12. Mark Reynolds - AVG is underrated. It won't surprise me if he loses his job completely. Yeah I'm not taking him in the 5th round.


I don't think anyone else is, either. His MDP is in the 10th. Nothing wrong with that, IMO...
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