jayvee16_98 wrote:C Russell Martin
1B Joey Votto
2B Chase Utley
3B Álex Rodríguez
SS Jimmy Rollins
OF Matt Holliday
OF Andre Ethier
OF Mike Stanton
Util Peter Bourjos
Util Yoenis Céspedes
BN Grady Sizemore
BN Alex Rios
SP Clayton Kershaw
SP Tim Lincecum
RP Brian Wilson
RP Andrew Bailey
P Kenley Jansen
P Chris Pérez
P Tommy Hanson
P Daniel Hudson
BN Jair Jurrjens
BN Ryan Dempster
BN Justin Masterson
I have mixed feelings about this team. I think there's more risk in your offense than you intended. There is some good boom potential, but between Utley, A-Rod, Holliday, Rollins, Ethier, Martin and Sizemore you've got too many aging vets who you can't necessarily expect a whole lot from anymore. You're going to lose value somewhere and may not gain a whole lot unless some of them play above their cost/projected value. At the very least, its four or five our guys (minus Rollins and maybe Utley) who probably can't be counted on for speed much at all anymore. The only guys who might give you decent speed here are Rollins, Bourjos, and Rios, and none are much more than 30 SB threats with potential for quite a bit less, so speed is going to be a big issue early. Votto, Martin, Utley and Cespedes might give you a bit of sneaky speed, but none is a major threat and the latter two have a lot of bust potential. They're more complimentary speed guys, not guys who will change your outlook in the category drastically. Otherwise everything looks kosher in the other cats, but if someone like Holliday doesn't produce to expected levels, all of a sudden guys like Stanton, Rollins, and Martin may drag your AVG down, or if A-Rod gets hurt RBI could become an issue, and I think you've given too much opportunity for something like that to happen. The only category you really have a built in floor with is HR, thanks to Votto and Stanton.
Your pitching is very strong, but I do think you invested too heavily early with Kershaw and Lincecum (though if Lincecum fell to the fourth, that's fine, but I'm guessing its more likely Stanton did--I know neither Votto or Kershaw did). SP are four category guys at best and tend to be much more volatile than hitters. Personally, I wouldn't draft any pitchers as early as those guys are going, let alone two (the fourth is the earliest I consider drafting pitchers in snakes, but I prefer to wait till the 5th or 6th depending on how the draft is going--my earliest targets this year are Hamels, Greinke, and Price so if all three are still on the board and I pick in the middle of the 4th round I'll usually hold off and hope I get a bargain on one in the 5th). If you can, I'd try to trade one of them for someone like Andrew McCutchen, or pair one with A-Rod or Utley for someone like David Wright or Ian Kinsler and a #2 SP like Bumgarner, Lester, or Gallardo (who are my typical fallbacks if I miss on Hamels, Greinke, or Price). SB would go from being a weakness to a strength and it would help offset a lot of the risk in the other categories, and you wouldn't be sacrificing a whole lot. I do also really like Hudson at that price. The underlying numbers were pretty similar to Ian Kennedy last year. Even if Kennedy had more roto value, I think they're pretty close, and Hudson could easily be better this year if their luck flips.
RP looks solid. Chris Perez has some major bust potential (his peripherals were awful last year) but he has a decent hold on the job so should get his saves and Jansen helps correct for the lack of Ks. Wilson and Bailey are both injury risks, but with three closers and a setup reliever who's better than his closer, you should be fine.
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by jayvee16_98 » Sat Feb 25, 2012 5:58 am 
