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Palmeiro vs Teixeira

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Palmeiro vs Teixeira

Postby doc watson » Wed Mar 31, 2004 6:02 pm

One's on the way up, the other is on the way down.

Do you see Tex outproducing Raffy this year?

My projections...

Raffy .260 35 HR 95 RBI 85 R

I know he's on the way down and he'll suffer a bit hitting in Baltimore, but he is hitting cleanup in a pretty good lineup and he still has 7 straight years of 38 HRs.

Tex .280 30 HR 90 RBI 85 R

He's got the talent. But this might be a pretty big jump considering his numbers last year.

Thoughts?
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Postby leafz17 » Wed Mar 31, 2004 6:29 pm

Tex is gonna have a huge year. I'm thinking at least 25-95 for him this year and hes definitely on his way up. However, even though Palmeiro is on his way down, he hasn't disappointed as of yet and I think he will still have a better year than Tex when it comes to HR and RBI at least. I guess it depends what you're looking for. Palmeiro will get his 35 homers, and somewhere around 100 RBI's also.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 31, 2004 6:54 pm

Have you seen Raffy's Home and Road numbers the last few years and factored in the fact that he's moving from a huge hitter's park to a pitcher's park?

If he hits over .250, I'll be very, very surprised.
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Postby Ry-Guy » Wed Mar 31, 2004 6:59 pm

The time has come for Palmeiro to fade. I like Teixeira a lot this year as long as he stays healthy. Palmeiro will still have fine power numbers but his batting average could kill you. I expect Teixeira to break out the way Pat Burrell did in 2002.

Also, Look at Teixeira's 2003 numbers
Now look at Burrell's 2001 numers

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Postby doc watson » Wed Mar 31, 2004 7:44 pm

Good thoughts here guys.

Palmeiro's home/road splits last year...

Home: .281 21 HR 59 RBI
Road: .240 17 HR 53 RBI

Baltimore is also a severe pitcher's park per the Baseball Prospectus.

I currently have Palmeiro and I'm trying to acquire Teixeira, but I wanted to get some other people's ideas.

I know there's a sentiment here that seems to think that Palmeiro's bubble will burst this year (he IS 39), but there's something in me that thinks he might hold on for one more year. I don't think the case for Teixeira is clear cut, but that's definitely the way I'm leaning...
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Postby rayt132 » Wed Mar 31, 2004 7:56 pm

i see teixeira out performing palmeiro...thats why i drafted him
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Postby DK » Wed Mar 31, 2004 8:14 pm

I'd take Teixiera.
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Postby Danks81 » Wed Mar 31, 2004 9:42 pm

doc watson wrote:Baltimore is also a severe pitcher's park per the Baseball Prospectus.



How current is that? I thought Baltimore moved in their fences recently.
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Postby doc watson » Wed Mar 31, 2004 10:20 pm

The info comes from this year's Prospectus based on last year's numbers. I don't think they've changed the dimensions from last year to this year.

Camden has a park factor of 0.959.

The Ballpark at Arlington, meanwhile has a park factor of 1.053 making it severe hitter's park.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Mar 31, 2004 10:41 pm

doc watson wrote:The info comes from this year's Prospectus based on last year's numbers. I don't think they've changed the dimensions from last year to this year.

Camden has a park factor of 0.959.

The Ballpark at Arlington, meanwhile has a park factor of 1.053 making it severe hitter's park.


Camden Yards has moved home plate back and forth in recent yearsm, which hasn't seemed to impact its rating. This year they did add some seating around home plate, which removed some foul territory.

Raffy will probably give you decent dingers (Camden Yards increases homers, but reduces almost every other offensive stat), but I can't see him increasing runs or RBIs much over last year and his average will be in the .235-.245 range, IMO.
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