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Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

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Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby Devil Doc » Fri Feb 17, 2012 7:43 am

I woke up this am with the offer from last years champ...

He gets Hosmer, I get Texiera straight up.

I feel like I shouldn't even be posting this question, but I wanted to make sure I didn't miss something.

Here's what I'm thinking....Hosmer COULD be a top 5 1B while we all know that Teixeira already is. Hosmer obviously younger than Tex, but Tex is the most proven. I don't mind trading my younger guys for some older cats, but at 31, how much does Tex have left?

We keep 6, no limit on how long we keep them.

We Start: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 3OF, 1DH, 2UTIL - 5SP, 2RP, 2P and 5 Bench Spots

Scoring: Hits, HR, RBI, SB, Runs, Walks - W, K, ERA, WHIP, Pitcher Team Wins


Keepers
Fielder
Stanton
Heyward
HanRam
Hamilton
Hosmer
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Re: Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby etex211 » Fri Feb 17, 2012 8:49 am

Would you trade Hosmer for Carlos Pena? Teixeira has essentially turned into Carlos Pena. He has devolved into a sub-.260 hitter.

I think I'd stick with Hosmer. He may not match Teixeira's power numbers, but he will get you more steals and a better batting average.
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Re: Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby Devil Doc » Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:17 am

etex211 wrote:Would you trade Hosmer for Carlos Pena? Teixeira has essentially turned into Carlos Pena. He has devolved into a sub-.260 hitter.

I think I'd stick with Hosmer. He may not match Teixeira's power numbers, but he will get you more steals and a better batting average.



Never even thought to look at it like that, appreciate the insight brother!
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Re: Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby MaudDib » Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:33 am

I think I would keep Hosmer as well. I didn't realize I valued Hosmer this much but in a no restriction keeper league, I think I would go with the much younger guy who very well could be better than Tex this year.
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Re: Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby Devil Doc » Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:35 am

MaudDib wrote:I think I would keep Hosmer as well. I didn't realize I valued Hosmer this much but in a no restriction keeper league, I think I would go with the much younger guy who very well could be better than Tex this year.


Thanks for your input, I really appreciate it! ;-D
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Re: Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby Cale » Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:53 am

There is some of the worst advice I have ever seen in this thread.

Keep Hosmer over Tex? Really? Lets look at the issue in depth.


Hosmer:
Hit .293 as a rookie with 19 Hrs and 11 sbs. Not bad. But he hit .237 against lefties. half the time he tried to steal he got caught (50% fail), and his GB/FB rate is upside down for a power hitter.
Also he is a rookie.. this time through the league there will be a solid book on his swing that pitchers can go by, and we have not seen his ability to adjust to their adjustments.

best Prediction for 2012 81r/22hr/89rbi/6sb/.278avg


Tex:
Plays for the Yankees in a bandbox.
Proven power hitter with a solid health and track record.
The Shift is killing his BA, but he has stated that he will try to take advantage of it this year (prob means nothing).
best Prediction for 2012 94r/36hr/104rbi/3sb/.273avg

To sum up.
Hosmer may be a star but in his sophmore year throwing the dice is not the smart play. If he has an incredible year! It wont be much better than the floor you will get with Tex.

You could keep Tex and Trade for a better player than Hosmer this year just on name recognition alone.
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Re: Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby Devil Doc » Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:59 am

Cale wrote:There is some of the worst advice I have ever seen in this thread.

Keep Hosmer over Tex? Really? Lets look at the issue in depth.


Hosmer:
Hit .293 as a rookie with 19 Hrs and 11 sbs. Not bad. But he hit .237 against lefties. half the time he tried to steal he got caught (50% fail), and his GB/FB rate is upside down for a power hitter.
Also he is a rookie.. this time through the league there will be a solid book on his swing that pitchers can go by, and we have not seen his ability to adjust to their adjustments.

best Prediction for 2012 81r/22hr/89rbi/6sb/.278avg


Tex:
Plays for the Yankees in a bandbox.
Proven power hitter with a solid health and track record.
The Shift is killing his BA, but he has stated that he will try to take advantage of it this year (prob means nothing).
best Prediction for 2012 94r/36hr/104rbi/3sb/.273avg

To sum up.
Hosmer may be a star but in his sophmore year throwing the dice is not the smart play. If he has an incredible year! It wont be much better than the floor you will get with Tex.

You could keep Tex and Trade for a better player than Hosmer this year just on name recognition alone.



Wow quite opposite of what others were thinking...I almost want to say being in the AL benefits him, with the ability to keep him healthier utilizing the DH spot.

Appreciate the insight on this, thank you.
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Re: Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby MaudDib » Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:11 am

Cale wrote:Also he is a rookie.. this time through the league there will be a solid book on his swing that pitchers can go by, and we have not seen his ability to adjust to their adjustments.


I don't buy this argument. Hosmer played 128 games last year. If the competition was going to find his weaknesses they would have done it last year. It doesn't take a year to gather up tape and find holes in player's swing. Add in that the last two months were better than the first two which shows that Hosmer was making adjustments not the other way around.

He isn't a SB threat, he just gives you more SB than most 1B. He should become better at this as he learns when to take the base. I wouldn't expect anything more than 10-15 SB in a season. I do think he can easily beat 22 HR and will likely push 30 HR. The last three months he averaged close to 5 HR a month and I think he can match that with an occasional month with more. Just like you said he is a rookie and the best rookies will get better as they adjust to the league.

Tex is 31. That is my biggest issue with him. He will probably continue to hit 35+ HR with a BA around .270. His BA has been in free fall for the past few years but so has his BABIP which should normalize a little which will give him a better BA than last year.

Other than that there isn't a lot to be concerned about. So I can see your point that Tex should be the no brainer here. The things is that there are occasionally rookies that show star status immediately and I think Hosmer is one of those guys. Almost every expert that I trust, talks about Hosmer as a future stud. There is so little to dislike about what he does. So while I wouldn't normally take a 22 year old over a stud veteran there is occasions to that I would. Sometimes you will get burned (ie if you thought Heyward was that kind of player) but sometime it will really pay off (ie if you thought Braun/Longoria was that kind of player).

So in a keeper league I value the 22 year old who show every sign of getting better by a hair more than the veteran who is past his prime and likely will see a decrease in his stats over the next few years.
Last edited by MaudDib on Fri Feb 17, 2012 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby oleredb » Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:28 am

If you have a realistic chance of winning your league this season then Teixeira is the better player to own. I suggest you project the keepers for each team in your league and see how you stack up against them to evaluate the trade.

My approach would be that if Teixeira's projections added to your other five keepers' projections put you in first place do the trade. If his projections put you in 4th or lower do not do it. If his projections put you in 2nd or 3rd it is a coin flip.

You could keep Tex and Trade for a better player than Hosmer this year just on name recognition alone.


I would not count on the name recognition. I am in a 20 team h2h points keeper league that keeps 16 with no restriction on how many times a player may be kept. The league scoring is slanted towards home runs for batters but is pitcher heavy in terms of individual scoring with no streaming allowed. I have been floating the possibility of trading Teixeira for a top SP and no one is interested. Not even the manager whose only 1B is Rizzo and says his SPs are on the trading block. There is no doubt that I will be keeping Teixeira if I do not trade him, but in some leagues he may already be untradable unless he has a monster rebound this season.
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Re: Hosmer for Teixeira?!?! WHIRLL

Postby Devil Doc » Fri Feb 17, 2012 12:07 pm

oleredb wrote:If you have a realistic chance of winning your league this season then Teixeira is the better player to own. I suggest you project the keepers for each team in your league and see how you stack up against them to evaluate the trade.

My approach would be that if Teixeira's projections added to your other five keepers' projections put you in first place do the trade. If his projections put you in 4th or lower do not do it. If his projections put you in 2nd or 3rd it is a coin flip.

You could keep Tex and Trade for a better player than Hosmer this year just on name recognition alone.


I would not count on the name recognition. I am in a 20 team h2h points keeper league that keeps 16 with no restriction on how many times a player may be kept. The league scoring is slanted towards home runs for batters but is pitcher heavy in terms of individual scoring with no streaming allowed. I have been floating the possibility of trading Teixeira for a top SP and no one is interested. Not even the manager whose only 1B is Rizzo and says his SPs are on the trading block. There is no doubt that I will be keeping Teixeira if I do not trade him, but in some leagues he may already be untradable unless he has a monster rebound this season.


Depending on how the draft plays out, adding Tex would probably be able to put me in the top 3-4 overall. But that may only be for a year. I think that if I draft smart, I can possibly pull out the same outcome maybe 4-5 without him this year. I'm a gambling man, I think I may want to do that with a 22 year old guy who's got the potential to be a top 5 guy. Still a bit torn.
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