owhite wrote:ender, who are your top 3 biggest surprises this year? ADP do where you project at the end of 2012 season
I don't know that I can really say because I don't play in the same format as ADP so the results end up very different. People have been jumping on guys I thought were going to be sleepers like Choo, Hosmer, Greinke, Stanton, Cuddyer etc way earlier than I expected. Corey Hart is one I thought was going to be a sleeper but he went really early in both leagues as well, but he missed part of last year and got off to a slow start after he got back which hides just how much growth he had as a player last year, he also got his contact rate up and BB rate up which usually means he can sustain it.
Andre Ethier isn't getting enough respect but I always have too many OF by the time he goes to jump on him it seems. Probably just the drafts I've been in but so far people have been very aggressive with unproven players so I've ended up with more veteran style teams which is boring but can work. Josh Hamilton is going later than I expected as well. Aramis Ramirez and ARod have gone after all the other mid tier 3B and I like them just as much so I've been waiting an extra round or two and grabbing them.
Starlin Castro is a good deal where he is going, he will add power at some point and become a 15+ HR guy though probably not until 2013 and that is a bad lineup for this year too. Adam Jones is someone I'm spending the extra $1 or $2 on as well. His skills have sort of stagnated but he is 26 this year with experience and was supposed to be better than he has been, those are the kind of guys who suddenly break out a lot of the time.
This year for me at least the sleepers are a little bit deeper. Guys like Boesch, Bourjos, Fowler. There are a ton of 10ish HR, 25-30 SB type guys like that who are lasting very late in drafts and should give good value if you pick the right one . John Mayberry is a nice one because he will play himself into a full time role by the time Howard gets back.
phantomx wrote:So...this thread was started (and kinda ended) before the Ryan Braun thing being settled...
I pick #4 in my draft soon..im assuming Kemp, MCab, and Pujols will be 1,2,3...
Im assuming the top 4 picks are a jumble of Braun, Kemp, Pujols, and MCab...right?
Or does Votto or Tulo sneak in their above those 4 somewhere at all?
In a 12 team 5x5, btw
They'll sneak there in a few drafts, and I think Braun will slip out of the Top 4 pretty regularly, but your Top 3 in most leagues will generally be some combination of Kemp/Pujols/Cabrera. You'll see guys like Tulo, Braun, Cano, Votto, Bautista all poke their heads in from time to time, though.
Right...so you are saying there pretty much is a TOP 8 this year...not much difference between them. After Mcab/Kemp/Pujols...there is no no brainier 4th pick? Cano is the same as Braun is the same as Tulo is the same as Votto is the same as Bautista?
phantomx wrote:Right...so you are saying there pretty much is a TOP 8 this year...not much difference between them. After Mcab/Kemp/Pujols...there is no no brainier 4th pick? Cano is the same as Braun is the same as Tulo is the same as Votto is the same as Bautista?
Yes, to there being no no brainer 4th pick. No, to all of them being the same. What I'm saying is that after those 3, peoples' interpretation of who is most value gets cloudier, and it becomes more of a matter of preference, as well as how somebody wishes to structure their team. If you believe Bautista has 50 HR power in him this year, he may very well go 4th. If you're a huge scarcity guy and want to fill the MI quickly, one of Tulo/Cano may go 4th. If you think Braun keeps calm and carries on, he'll go 4th. So on and so forth.
phantomx wrote:Right...so you are saying there pretty much is a TOP 8 this year...not much difference between them. After Mcab/Kemp/Pujols...there is no no brainier 4th pick? Cano is the same as Braun is the same as Tulo is the same as Votto is the same as Bautista?
Any list that includes Votto should probably include Adrian Gonzalez. People say he was just lucky with BABIP but as an opposite field hitter in Fenway you are going to see a dip in HR and a spike in BABIP/AVG because of the wall. He will hit .310+ year in and year out in that park and it will likely cost him a few HR.
My personal list has Kemp/Pujols/Braun as the top 3 (pick your own order) and then a secondary group that falls a bit short of those guys which is MCab, Cano, Tulo, Votto, Agon, Cargo, Upton, Bautista who again could easily go in any order. Then Ellsbury, Longoria and Fielder are a step behind that group and then you get a huge dropoff to the next tier which is like 20 players large, so if you are stuck with say pick 15 in a 16 team league like I always seem to be you are screwed~.
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. John Mayberry is a nice one because he will play himself into a full time role by the time Howard gets back.
