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Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:34 am

rjforlife wrote:I have to agree with Kab. M-Cab and Pujols have to be 1-2. After that it's up in the air for me between Kemp/Tulo/Votto/Bautista. I like Kemp's versatility, but there are so many steals available this season it almost totally devalues speed. Not that my projections are what's really going to happen, but I have 15 players in the outfield alone projected to 30 SBs. Even if you disagree with some, you might favor others or even if there were only 12 guys, it's still hard to see Kemp's steals as valuable as they may have been in years past.

My outfield SB projections:

Bourn-58
Gardner-48
Maybin-47
Ellsbury-45
Jennings-45
Crisp-38
Revere-37
Ichiro-37
Pagan-35
Stubbs-35
BJ-Upton-33
Kemp-33
Crawford-30
Bourgeios-30
Venable-30


With limited OF spots, though, I think it's important to get speed without compromising power. If you have Bourn on your roster, you better be getting a ton of power elsewhere. With Kemp, you can get both and keep on trucking.
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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby GardnerRunsRampant » Fri Feb 17, 2012 9:49 am

OneLoveBoomer wrote:
rjforlife wrote:I have to agree with Kab. M-Cab and Pujols have to be 1-2. After that it's up in the air for me between Kemp/Tulo/Votto/Bautista. I like Kemp's versatility, but there are so many steals available this season it almost totally devalues speed. Not that my projections are what's really going to happen, but I have 15 players in the outfield alone projected to 30 SBs. Even if you disagree with some, you might favor others or even if there were only 12 guys, it's still hard to see Kemp's steals as valuable as they may have been in years past.

My outfield SB projections:

Bourn-58
Gardner-48
Maybin-47
Ellsbury-45
Jennings-45
Crisp-38
Revere-37
Ichiro-37
Pagan-35
Stubbs-35
BJ-Upton-33
Kemp-33
Crawford-30
Bourgeios-30
Venable-30


With limited OF spots, though, I think it's important to get speed without compromising power. If you have Bourn on your roster, you better be getting a ton of power elsewhere. With Kemp, you can get both and keep on trucking.


Pujols gets a handful of steals, crushes Kemp in Rs,RBIs,HR, and BA. In OBP and SLG leagues, Kemp falls even further behind. That's 6/7 categories that Kemp is projected to lose out on to Fielder. Are you willing to compromise on those categories just for SB?

Cabrera might not get the steals that Pujols does, but I have him projected to win those same 6 categories over Kemp, while beating Pujols in R,RBI,BA,OBP, and SLG. However, I want to point out that the margins between these two are very slim in my projections.

There are plenty more available SB guys in the league than there are power guys. Stack up on power early, then you can sacrifice power later for a guy like Desmond Jennings, Ichiro, BJ upton, or Gardner.
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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby Inukchuk » Fri Feb 17, 2012 1:27 pm

Not that it's a huge chink in the armor, but I'd like to note that Votto has only surpassed 30 HR once in his career. Albert has never fallen below 30 and the last time Miggy did was 2006. Add to that the fact that Kemp has the steals working for him, and Votto is clearly last of the bunch, imo...
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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:32 pm

Arbitrary thresholds are nice for newspaper stories or radio shows, but pretty unimportant in terms of fantasy baseball value. You could also say Matt Kemp has only hit above .300 once, only hit 30 HR once, only scored 100 runs once. But that completely ignores how close he was to those thresholds (pretty damn close) and how many years he's been in the majors.

Despite how high his ceiling is, Kemp still carries risk. And for a lot of people the first round is the most important place to minimize risk. There's a ton to be lost and not enough to be gained.
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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby j24jags » Sat Feb 18, 2012 2:17 pm

Inukchuk wrote:Not that it's a huge chink in the armor, but I'd like to note that Votto has only surpassed 30 HR once in his career. Albert has never fallen below 30 and the last time Miggy did was 2006. Add to that the fact that Kemp has the steals working for him, and Votto is clearly last of the bunch, imo...

I agree that Votto is the last of this bunch, but that's not saying much...
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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby Garry26 » Sun Feb 19, 2012 10:20 am

Skin Blues wrote:
Garry26 wrote:I thought the debate was
Pujols vs Kemp vs Cabrera vs Tudo ?

In any case, the answer is simple: Kemp.

Reason: They all have similar stats, except that Kemp adds steals to the mix. Since steals are harder to come by than any other batting stat, and he gives a high number of them, you don't need to waste a roster slot on a speedster. So get to pack more value into your roster by adding another SP or power hitter instead.

Basically he gives you more overall points than the others.

You can do this by calculating projected numbers in all categories for all the candidates. Then adding them together. Assuming 500+ at bats for all, Kemp wins even if he has a bit of a down year.

How does your strategy play out if they put up 2010-type numbers?

2010 was bad with that avg and all. I will be happy with 2009 numbers though. Which is still less than 2011. The thing is I rarely expect round 1s to produce similar numbers year in and year out. What I expect is consistent top Rnd1-Rnd2-ish numbers and no nosedives into mid round quality.

So staying a true 5-tool player (30-30 IMHO) despite a numbers variance, is what I'd grab him for. That's what gives me the ability to avoid the prototypical speedster and fill the roster spot with a more robust producer. Of course I will need a few lesser 5-tool wannabees (20-20s, teen-teens, etc), and savvy owners can deny me the other players. He'd still produce more points than others overall though.
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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby silverZ » Sun Feb 19, 2012 11:59 pm

I'm prepping for a 7x7 league with BB and OPS. I'd like to see someone argue against Bautista as an easy top 3 pick in these settings, because it's a no brainer to me.
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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby Inukchuk » Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:04 pm

Skin Blues wrote:Arbitrary thresholds are nice for newspaper stories or radio shows, but pretty unimportant in terms of fantasy baseball value. You could also say Matt Kemp has only hit above .300 once, only hit 30 HR once, only scored 100 runs once. But that completely ignores how close he was to those thresholds (pretty damn close) and how many years he's been in the majors.

Despite how high his ceiling is, Kemp still carries risk. And for a lot of people the first round is the most important place to minimize risk. There's a ton to be lost and not enough to be gained.


I think you're missing my point. I was implying that Pujols and MCab are much more reliable power sources while Votto's average and counting stats are at best a wash.

While Kemp is a bit more of a risk, he has a shot to match Votto's numbers and chip in an additional 30-35 SB. This is enough to push Votto to the bottom of the bunch.

Of course, as j24jags mentioned, it's not exactly an indictment of his ability to say he's not quite as solid as the other 3... :-b
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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby Ender » Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:38 am

For those who do own Cabrera, he was on MLB.TV yesterday and he did look a lot slimmer, at least 20 lbs if not more. I think that is nothing but good news considering the move.
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Re: Kemp vs. Votto vs. MCab vs. Pujols

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 27, 2012 1:58 am

I started to fill out my main leagues draft sheet last night and noticed something. I had Kemp as the #2 OF in baseball last year behind Braun and had him as a late first round pick even with the bad 2010. There was no reason to think he was anything but a stud once you look at the peripherals and given what he did he should easily be a top 3 pick. To add to that Ellsbury was my #5 rated OF last year and I had him as a 2nd round value so it really wasn't a big surprise. Asdrubal Cabrera was way undervalued last year and I had him as my #14 MI though the power spike was unpredictable of course.
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