Adrian's shoulder fatigue last year, and the subsequent power drop off that resulted from that really worry me.
In that Ron Shandler/Paul White thread (viewtopic.php?t=439130), jbird669 mentions, "Ron tried to “shoot down” the 15 players wide considered first-round picks. He presented risk in all but 3 of them: Votto, Cano and Halladay. They’re the closest to sure-fire bets as you’ll get."
Now, he's just one opinion, but I do have to agree that Votto is a very consistent contributor. That said, others mentioned in this thread will likely outproduce him, but if you want more certainty, he's an excellent choice.
I'm downplaying MCab's injury risk because I think once they see him playing 3B they will change their mind and have Fielder/Mcab rotate at DH except during interleague.
Yeah it's all moot once it becomes apparent how bad Miggy is at 3B. I think part of it is them not wanting to look like the big FA signing is leading to a demotion for their star player. This way, he can earn the demotion himself.
I thought the debate was Pujols vs Kemp vs Cabrera vs Tudo ?
In any case, the answer is simple: Kemp.
Reason: They all have similar stats, except that Kemp adds steals to the mix. Since steals are harder to come by than any other batting stat, and he gives a high number of them, you don't need to waste a roster slot on a speedster. So get to pack more value into your roster by adding another SP or power hitter instead.
Basically he gives you more overall points than the others.
You can do this by calculating projected numbers in all categories for all the candidates. Then adding them together. Assuming 500+ at bats for all, Kemp wins even if he has a bit of a down year.
Garry26 wrote:I thought the debate was Pujols vs Kemp vs Cabrera vs Tudo ?
In any case, the answer is simple: Kemp.
Reason: They all have similar stats, except that Kemp adds steals to the mix. Since steals are harder to come by than any other batting stat, and he gives a high number of them, you don't need to waste a roster slot on a speedster. So get to pack more value into your roster by adding another SP or power hitter instead.
Basically he gives you more overall points than the others.
You can do this by calculating projected numbers in all categories for all the candidates. Then adding them together. Assuming 500+ at bats for all, Kemp wins even if he has a bit of a down year.
You're assuming he repeats last year's power output. His season was an outlier in almost every category, not to mention his BA is almost certainly going to fall below .300 if he continues to K at the rate he has in his career. Top-10 player for sure, but he's the first out in my opinion. Could easily follow Car-Go's path from last year.
You're assuming he repeats last year's power output. His season was an outlier in almost every category, not to mention his BA is almost certainly going to fall below .300 if he continues to K at the rate he has in his career. Top-10 player for sure, but he's the first out in my opinion. Could easily follow Car-Go's path from last year
He put up more value than MCab in 2009 as well, it wasn't exactly a 1 year thing. Like I said before, if you look at their 3 year averages he has still out earned Tulo and MCab. There is certainly more volatility in his stats, he had the worst single year by a good bit out of the whole bunch in 2010 but he absolutely blew away the best year by any of them in his best year too and his middle year was right in line with the others.
Garry26 wrote:I thought the debate was Pujols vs Kemp vs Cabrera vs Tudo ?
In any case, the answer is simple: Kemp.
Reason: They all have similar stats, except that Kemp adds steals to the mix. Since steals are harder to come by than any other batting stat, and he gives a high number of them, you don't need to waste a roster slot on a speedster. So get to pack more value into your roster by adding another SP or power hitter instead.
Basically he gives you more overall points than the others.
You can do this by calculating projected numbers in all categories for all the candidates. Then adding them together. Assuming 500+ at bats for all, Kemp wins even if he has a bit of a down year.
How does your strategy play out if they put up 2010-type numbers?
Garry26 wrote:You can do this by calculating projected numbers in all categories for all the candidates. Then adding them together. Assuming 500+ at bats for all, Kemp wins even if he has a bit of a down year.
I'm not quite grasping this formula. So if I project Kemp to .292-31-112-34-105 he gets a 282.292? And if I see Votto with .310-34-110-104-6 he gets a 254.31? Not to sound like an ass but I hope you have something a tad more complex than that in this day in age. There are some better ways to compare players being presented on the cafe daily.
Garry26 wrote:I thought the debate was Pujols vs Kemp vs Cabrera vs Tudo ?
In any case, the answer is simple: Kemp.
I apologize. My answer is Miggy then. It's very likely that Kemp/Cargo/Jacoby outperforms him but I'll take the steady .290-.350 BA, mid 30's HR's and 200-230 R+RBI's that he produces every year. Fielder hitting behind him and 3B is just icing on the cake. Pujols is #2 for the same reasons but he's been getting dinged up recently and I'm a little concerned about his health. But he's still #2.
I have to agree with Kab. M-Cab and Pujols have to be 1-2. After that it's up in the air for me between Kemp/Tulo/Votto/Bautista. I like Kemp's versatility, but there are so many steals available this season it almost totally devalues speed. Not that my projections are what's really going to happen, but I have 15 players in the outfield alone projected to 30 SBs. Even if you disagree with some, you might favor others or even if there were only 12 guys, it's still hard to see Kemp's steals as valuable as they may have been in years past.
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by GardnerRunsRampant » Thu Feb 16, 2012 6:22 pm 
