Adrian's shoulder fatigue last year, and the subsequent power drop off that resulted from that really worry me.
In that Ron Shandler/Paul White thread (viewtopic.php?t=439130
), jbird669 mentions, "Ron tried to “shoot down” the 15 players wide considered first-round picks. He presented risk in all but 3 of them: Votto, Cano and Halladay. They’re the closest to sure-fire bets as you’ll get."
Now, he's just one opinion, but I do have to agree that Votto is a very consistent contributor. That said, others mentioned in this thread will likely outproduce him, but if you want more certainty, he's an excellent choice.