Pogotheostrich wrote:I'm kind of shocked no one is arguing for Tulo. He is head and shoulds above a horrible SS class. I could see him being the best fantasy player pretty easily.
I draft based on who the numbers say will provide the best production in the current year. That said, I value Tulo 10th, 12th, and 9th best overall among hitters in my 3 leagues (see above for scoring categories) with his best rating being in the 7x7 league. At his current MDP of 4.9 I'll take someone better. Sure, SS is thin, but don't use that to reach for a player before his value says to be taken. You might gain an edge over your competitors in the SS category, but you'll be throw that edge out the window by missing out on the extra value you could have gotten in picking a better player.
Position scarcity and opportunity cost have to enter into it. If you have a catcher and a 1B who you project to have the same numbers you take the catcher everytime. You have to evaulate the position along with the numbers.
I take the projections and estimate how much value relative to the population, each player is going to provide in each scoring category, then I add those values up to get an overall value. During the draft, I use those totals as a basis, and also keep track of the total value I am acquiring in each category. As the draft goes on, I can see how well I'm stacking up against my competitors in each category.
I also look to MDP, and how other players are drafting, to get an idea of who I can wait to draft until a later round, etc to get the most value out of each pick. Positional scarcity comes into play of course, but I do not care about that until I am forced to. At which point, I try to have a bank of players at lower MDP's that I can count on being available later in most drafts that I am comfortable rostering. I believe many people place too much emphasis on positional scarcity too early in drafts and lose value in those first few rounds.
Ender wrote: It is much harder on your knees and back as well as your shoulder from throwing. 3B is right up there with 2B for injury risk. If you follow the defensive spectrum you are pretty much also following the injury risk by position. 3B is particularly hard on larger guys. On top of that any change in positions increases your injury risk, granted he is a natural 3B so it is lesser for him but it is still there. His injury risk was almost nil at 1B but it is significant at 3B. Even if healthy I don't have him outproducing Kemp or Pujols though mostly because he doesn't steal bases. Without the move to 3B I might have talked myself into taking him #1 because he was the lowest risk of the 3 but with the move it just isn't enough.
How is it harder on your knees and back? Fielding is the same, it's a mirror image of 1B. Both 1B and 3B have to charge for bunts, though obviously 3B a bit more frequently. 1B also has to cover the base on every ground ball though. Every position is hard on larger guys, and SS/2B are harder because of so many runners trying to break up double plays. Sure you could anecdotally note A-Rod and Youk as guys with bad legs palying 3B (although Youkilis has mostly played 1B throughout his injury-laden career, and A-Rod was a SS for the first half of his), but 1B has some pretty significant leg injuries too, with Ryan Howard and Kendrys Morales of recent note. Then you have Albert Pujols breaking his arm at 1B on a play that would probably never happen at 3B. I'm just not seeing any evidence of an increase in injury risk, especially for a guy that has spent 7 of his 11 pro seasons as a SS/3B. He'll probably have horrible range and no throwing accuracy, that part I agree with. But as for increased injury risk, I'm not seeing it.
At 3B its called the hot corner for a reason. If you ever played baseball you would know you have to be on your toes constantly. The whole stretching to the line or towards short is common for a 3B a few times a game, and with a bigger frame landing and falling tends to take a larger toll. As well as stretching lower to get the ball and make the quick through. 3B is not compatible to 1B in fielding IMO, most of the time the 1B just needs to cover and take the throw, he hardly ever has to really make a play but it does happen, however it happens at 3B much more frequently.
I've been the 3B on a competitive team for the past 10 years or so, I'm well aware of why it's called the hot corner. I had to stop catching because my knees were bad, but I've never had any issues at all since palying 3B full time. I keep seeing a lot of little sayings, like "it's the hot corner", "you gotta be on your toes", "you're lower to the ground" (???), but none of that makes any actual sense with regards to hurting your back and knees. The only physical difference is throwing the ball vs runing to the base and catching the ball. I'll roll the dice that Miggy won't blow out his knees while throwing the ball to Prince. With an open DH spot, worst case scenario you end up with him playing DH while qualifying at both CI positions. The move to third only increases his value because of positional flexibility and the fact that replacement level at 3B is a lower than 1B.
To me he's gotta be the top pick off the board. No way I take the risk on Kemp reverting to his 2010 numbers. His upside might be higher than anybody else but he doens't have near the track record of the other guys. Albert has signed his final MLB contract and is in the AL for the first time. Maybe it won't affect him at all, but it's an entirely different group of pitchers, and he has no financial motivation. Votto is a lot like Miggy but doesn't have the track record, and is just a bit below him in every category other than SBs which I don't see Votto being a big contributor in anyway. And Bautista, his BA won't be that great. If Rasmus and Lawrie have solid seasons it should at least bump up his R/RBI but I'd rather not roll the dice on that.
Ender wrote:Believe what you want but 100+ years of baseball history disagrees with you, just like it is harder on your body to play SS than 1B even though you basically do the same types of things.
Again I wasn't suggesting dropping Cabrera out of the first round or anything. I don't consider him more valuable than Pujols or Kemp so that is my tie breaker, not some huge deal.
I do not disagree with the increase of potential injury risk of playing 3B versus 1B. I disagree with how much impact I believe this will have on Fielder this year. I myself, do not see him playing more than 50 games at 3B. I also, feel the Tigers will be monitoring his status closely. They depend on him to much to chance having him out of the lineup.
On another note, stolen bases are hard on the body. Kemp could easily injure his wrist, forearm, shoulder, or fingers while sliding into a bag. While you research the injury impact the impact of each position as it relates to injury, do you research the impact stealing bases has on injury? I've watched enough Brett Gardner games to know that he commonly develops wrist injuries from sliding into bases that has had large consequences for his results in past seasons. While Kemp's position may be less risky, obviously his base running is more aggressive. How confident are you, that Kemp is less of an injury risk than Cabrera?
Younger, healthier body. CF isn't exactly the most healthy position either. My actually projections come out with MCab 3rd so it would take me thinking there was a strong reason he would stay healthier to draft him 1st I guess was my point. Moving to 3B takes away the only strong reason I can think of (I don't believe 3B is any more scarce than 1B in a league with CI). I drafted 15 out of 16 in the only snake draft I'm doing this year and I don't plan on buying Kemp or Cabrera in my auctions so I guess it doesn't matter too much to me personally .
I have to go with Skin on this one. If you're comparing risk, Miggy is easily the safer bet, position switch be damned. I'm not worried about injuries with him at all, and Kemp is coming off what I believe is his absolute ceiling of a season. While I can't see him dropping to 2010 levels, I'm not expecting a repeat of 2011 either. The chance of Kemp regressing to the mean is much more likely than Miggy getting hurt, imo...
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We can agree to disagree . Kemps 2009 was as valuable as MCab's year last year. His 2011 was leaps and bounds more valuable than any year MCab has had. If you look at their 3 year averages Kemp has been much more valuable even with the down 2010. I think if you ignore risk completely Kemp is a better pick. Pujols has also out produced MCab each of the past 3 years. At 1B I thought you could make a strong case that Cabrera's healthy and consistency makes him a better #1 just because he is safer even though he has less upside than either of them, at 3B I don't think that case is as strong. I don't think he is some enormous injury risk or something.
Biggest problem with Votto is the Reds lineup hasn't been all that good and he hasn't been able to stay away from the minor injuries. To be honest he is probably being underrated in drafts this year. I would add that AGone really should be in the list as well, he is every bit as good as MCab and has the same low risk levels and is in a better lineup if it is healthy. There is no top 5 that are a step above the rest, it is really more of a top 7 or 8 because if you are including Tulo in the top 5 there is no reason to not include Cano. If Braun beats his suspension he's right in the middle of that bunch and suddenly you are talking 9.