His current MDP of 4.4 is very accurate for what I value his worth in leagues where OBP and SLG are counted. In leagues where AVG is more heavily favored, I rate him 9th best among hitters. In those leagues, I'll let someone else have him that early and get better value elsewhere.
Yep, exactly.
I think it's hard not to nod to Kemp. 39 - 40 last year @.324 ... jeeeeeez.
Kemp gives the best value when it comes down to the added SB, but plays a pretty full position. I also think its hard to bank on Bautista still, he was a wavier wire guy two years ago and the though of my first pick recessing into something like that just is not what I am about.
I like Votto, hits in a good ball park and has some good speed guys to get on ahead of him and Jay Bruce is good protection.
Pujols is still Albert and he hasn't fallen off yet but who knows when he will, this year could be the time but I really dont see it happening.
And then theres MCab, I believe 3B will be a challenge for him like the rest of us do but people that over come these sort of things are usually wrote off in the beginning so I can really see it as a personal goal of his to make it work. Plus he has lost 20 lbs but the position flexibilty is basically a trade off for the injury risk.
The thing I really hate about discussing all of this is that your 1st pick does not really matter that much you are going to get a solid production worthy player. Its the rounds lke 6-10 that worry me. I am not getting stuck with Chase Utley.
Is it really a health issue to play 3B? What on earth is he going to be doing that's so different? Fielding is essentially the exact same, except he has to throw the ball to first a few times per game instead of running to cover first on every single ground ball. He has to charge for bunts, which he already had to do sometimes anyway. Unless he hurts his arm from throwing the ball more often, I don't see it as an issue
It is much harder on your knees and back as well as your shoulder from throwing. 3B is right up there with 2B for injury risk. If you follow the defensive spectrum you are pretty much also following the injury risk by position. 3B is particularly hard on larger guys. On top of that any change in positions increases your injury risk, granted he is a natural 3B so it is lesser for him but it is still there. His injury risk was almost nil at 1B but it is significant at 3B. Even if healthy I don't have him outproducing Kemp or Pujols though mostly because he doesn't steal bases. Without the move to 3B I might have talked myself into taking him #1 because he was the lowest risk of the 3 but with the move it just isn't enough.
How is it harder on your knees and back? Fielding is the same, it's a mirror image of 1B. Both 1B and 3B have to charge for bunts, though obviously 3B a bit more frequently. 1B also has to cover the base on every ground ball though. Every position is hard on larger guys, and SS/2B are harder because of so many runners trying to break up double plays. Sure you could anecdotally note A-Rod and Youk as guys with bad legs palying 3B (although Youkilis has mostly played 1B throughout his injury-laden career, and A-Rod was a SS for the first half of his), but 1B has some pretty significant leg injuries too, with Ryan Howard and Kendrys Morales of recent note. Then you have Albert Pujols breaking his arm at 1B on a play that would probably never happen at 3B. I'm just not seeing any evidence of an increase in injury risk, especially for a guy that has spent 7 of his 11 pro seasons as a SS/3B. He'll probably have horrible range and no throwing accuracy, that part I agree with. But as for increased injury risk, I'm not seeing it.
His current MDP of 4.4 is very accurate for what I value his worth in leagues where OBP and SLG are counted. In leagues where AVG is more heavily favored, I rate him 9th best among hitters. In those leagues, I'll let someone else have him that early and get better value elsewhere.
Yep, exactly.
I think it's hard not to nod to Kemp. 39 - 40 last year @.324 ... jeeeeeez.
I think the clear #1-2 pick in almost any format is either Pujols or Cabrera. That said, in all my leagues I have Kemp in the top 6 for me with his value being the greatest in leagues that focus more on AVG than OBP. I've had him as a keeper for the past two years in one of my leagues. In 2010, he was very frustrating. He would get incredibly hot, then go on spells where his K's killed my team. Then came 2011, where he was a beast. I hope we see 2011 Kemp in 2012, but I still have 2010 Kemp in the back of my mind.
I'm kind of shocked no one is arguing for Tulo. He is head and shoulds above a horrible SS class. I could see him being the best fantasy player pretty easily.
Pogotheostrich wrote:I'm kind of shocked no one is arguing for Tulo. He is head and shoulds above a horrible SS class. I could see him being the best fantasy player pretty easily.
I draft based on who the numbers say will provide the best production in the current year. That said, I value Tulo 10th, 12th, and 9th best overall among hitters in my 3 leagues (see above for scoring categories) with his best rating being in the 7x7 league. At his current MDP of 4.9 I'll take someone better. Sure, SS is thin, but don't use that to reach for a player before his value says to be taken. You might gain an edge over your competitors in the SS category, but you'll be throw that edge out the window by missing out on the extra value you could have gotten in picking a better player.
Is it really a health issue to play 3B? What on earth is he going to be doing that's so different? Fielding is essentially the exact same, except he has to throw the ball to first a few times per game instead of running to cover first on every single ground ball. He has to charge for bunts, which he already had to do sometimes anyway. Unless he hurts his arm from throwing the ball more often, I don't see it as an issue
It is much harder on your knees and back as well as your shoulder from throwing. 3B is right up there with 2B for injury risk. If you follow the defensive spectrum you are pretty much also following the injury risk by position. 3B is particularly hard on larger guys. On top of that any change in positions increases your injury risk, granted he is a natural 3B so it is lesser for him but it is still there. His injury risk was almost nil at 1B but it is significant at 3B. Even if healthy I don't have him outproducing Kemp or Pujols though mostly because he doesn't steal bases. Without the move to 3B I might have talked myself into taking him #1 because he was the lowest risk of the 3 but with the move it just isn't enough.
How is it harder on your knees and back? Fielding is the same, it's a mirror image of 1B. Both 1B and 3B have to charge for bunts, though obviously 3B a bit more frequently. 1B also has to cover the base on every ground ball though. Every position is hard on larger guys, and SS/2B are harder because of so many runners trying to break up double plays. Sure you could anecdotally note A-Rod and Youk as guys with bad legs palying 3B (although Youkilis has mostly played 1B throughout his injury-laden career, and A-Rod was a SS for the first half of his), but 1B has some pretty significant leg injuries too, with Ryan Howard and Kendrys Morales of recent note. Then you have Albert Pujols breaking his arm at 1B on a play that would probably never happen at 3B. I'm just not seeing any evidence of an increase in injury risk, especially for a guy that has spent 7 of his 11 pro seasons as a SS/3B. He'll probably have horrible range and no throwing accuracy, that part I agree with. But as for increased injury risk, I'm not seeing it.
At 3B its called the hot corner for a reason. If you ever played baseball you would know you have to be on your toes constantly. The whole stretching to the line or towards short is common for a 3B a few times a game, and with a bigger frame landing and falling tends to take a larger toll. As well as stretching lower to get the ball and make the quick through. 3B is not compatible to 1B in fielding IMO, most of the time the 1B just needs to cover and take the throw, he hardly ever has to really make a play but it does happen, however it happens at 3B much more frequently.
Yeah 3B and 1B aren't really comparable. 3B you are generally lower to the ground to begin with which puts stress on your back and knees. A lot more balls get hit to you. You have to move around a lot more especially lateral movement and you have to do all of that at a more hurried pace, you also have a lot more footwork involved to make throws instead of tosses. If you look at longevity of careers you would expect most 3B to start breaking down physically in their early 30s while 1B stay healthy well into their mid to late 30s.
Again the risks aren't huge since Cabrera has mostly been healthy in his career, it is just enough to break a tie which is what I had them as to begin with. He gained more risk than he gained value from 3B eligibility for sure though. Now Youkilis is another story, you couldn't pay me to draft Youkilis anywhere near where his value was when he was at 1B.
Pogotheostrich wrote:I'm kind of shocked no one is arguing for Tulo. He is head and shoulds above a horrible SS class. I could see him being the best fantasy player pretty easily.
I draft based on who the numbers say will provide the best production in the current year. That said, I value Tulo 10th, 12th, and 9th best overall among hitters in my 3 leagues (see above for scoring categories) with his best rating being in the 7x7 league. At his current MDP of 4.9 I'll take someone better. Sure, SS is thin, but don't use that to reach for a player before his value says to be taken. You might gain an edge over your competitors in the SS category, but you'll be throw that edge out the window by missing out on the extra value you could have gotten in picking a better player.
Position scarcity and opportunity cost have to enter into it. If you have a catcher and a 1B who you project to have the same numbers you take the catcher everytime. You have to evaulate the position along with the numbers.
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by OneLoveBoomer » Thu Feb 16, 2012 12:26 pm 
