So I thought at the end of last season I knew exactly who my keepers were. Now I unsure of my last keeper.
9-team league, we keep 5 and 3 prospects. We can keep guys a total of 2 times (3 years max on our team). My prospects are Stanton, Lawrie, and Jennings.
My first 4 keepers are J. Upton, Ellsbury, McCutchen and Beltre. That leaves 1 spot for Castro or Hosmer. Based on draft status, I should keep Castro. He'll be drafted earlier probably. But I'm big on "best player available" mentality, which is how I got some decent keepers and prospects.
One other complication is that I have the 3rd pick and can choose from whoever is left of Kemp, Cabrera, Pujols and Tulo. If I kept Hosmer and nabbed Tulo I wouldn't need Castro.
If you have the 3rd pick then my guess would be you will get either Cabrera or Pujols anyhow so I'd keep Castro. I will admit I'm not a huge believer in Hosmer anyhow but even if he is the next great thing I don't see him getting their next year or even in 2 years so either Cabrera or Pujols will outperform him for a while still.
Oh, and if somehow you get "stuck" with Matt Kemp run laughing like a little girl all the way to the bank.
In a 9 team league, I am going to ignore positional scarcity and go with the upside pick in Hosmer.
And with the third overall pick, and the guys you listed as available (Kemp, Cabrera, Pujols and Tulo), I would surprised if Tulo wasn't there for you with your pick. Miggy should be off the board first. And both Pujols and Kemp are averaging a higher draft spot than Tulo at the moment.
Castro isn't as valuable as some make him out to be. I'd roll the dice, keep Hosmer and hope Tulo falls to you with the 3rd pick. If not you can snag one of those great CI with your pick and have a big bat at CI or UTL