A.J Burnett in Pittsburgh - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2015 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Draft, Trade, Keeper and Waivers Questions

A.J Burnett in Pittsburgh

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: A.J Burnett in Pittsburgh

Postby Urban Cohorts » Mon Feb 13, 2012 2:37 pm

MaudDib wrote:I guess I should clarify these comments more along the lines of unownable for me. Bottom line, Burnett has had a 5+ ERA for the past two season and a WHIP over 1.4 the past three. Maybe the underlining statistics show a player that should have better numbers but if he doesn't, your team isn't going to be competitive if you star a pitcher that gives you a 5+ ERA.

Again maybe he can do something but he is also 36 years old which again cuts away most of the improvement you might see. At the end of the draft, there are a lot better players with more upside than Burnett will give you. He is more likely a guy that I would pick up off the WW for one start and then drop him.


He is actually 35 years old. Not that it makes a ton of difference. :-D

For me, I'm throwing his past ERAs out the window. Moving out of Yankee stadium will result in fewer HRs allowed (when they changed the dimensions, his HR rate flew threw the roof). Assuming an average HR/FB rate that he had prior to 2011, he should do a lot better ERA wise. His xFIP has averaged under 4.00 for the last 5 seasons, so I think leaving Yankee stadium will bring his stats closer to that number.

His K rate has held up for 4 of the past 5 seasons. The year it didn't (2010), he was absolutely horrible. But last year he was in line with his 2007-2009 K rate and produced the same underlying stats. I'll give you the 5+ ERA in 2010 was due to terrible pitching, but the 5+ ERA in 2011 was due to bad luck. And I tend to think that luck usually works itself out over time. So if he does move to PIT, his ERA staying at 5+ would be unlikely. His WHIP is high, but a move to the NL West is going to bring that down some. Less talented hitters and he gets to throw to pitchers. Now if the K rate stayed the same as 2010, then yeah, he would be totally done.

So if he does indeed go to the Pirates (and not the Reds or one of the other rumored teams), I'm willing to take a gamble on him.
Image
Urban Cohorts
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1717
Joined: 2 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Rome in all of its glory...

Re: A.J Burnett in Pittsburgh

Postby Urban Cohorts » Mon Feb 13, 2012 2:47 pm

lane_anasazi2 wrote:Urban, when do you find the time to write 4-5 long answers a day? I mean, damn.


Overnight shifts + Insomnia + Sleep 3-4 hours per day makes this possible.. :-b
Image
Urban Cohorts
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1717
Joined: 2 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Rome in all of its glory...

Re: A.J Burnett in Pittsburgh

Postby Padres Fan » Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:51 pm

Urban Cohorts wrote:For me, I'm throwing his past ERAs out the window. Moving out of Yankee stadium will result in fewer HRs allowed (when they changed the dimensions, his HR rate flew threw the roof). Assuming an average HR/FB rate that he had prior to 2011, he should do a lot better ERA wise. His xFIP has averaged under 4.00 for the last 5 seasons, so I think leaving Yankee stadium will bring his stats closer to that number.

His K rate has held up for 4 of the past 5 seasons. The year it didn't (2010), he was absolutely horrible. But last year he was in line with his 2007-2009 K rate and produced the same underlying stats. I'll give you the 5+ ERA in 2010 was due to terrible pitching, but the 5+ ERA in 2011 was due to bad luck. And I tend to think that luck usually works itself out over time. So if he does move to PIT, his ERA staying at 5+ would be unlikely. His WHIP is high, but a move to the NL West is going to bring that down some. Less talented hitters and he gets to throw to pitchers. Now if the K rate stayed the same as 2010, then yeah, he would be totally done.

So if he does indeed go to the Pirates (and not the Reds or one of the other rumored teams), I'm willing to take a gamble on him.


Yeah he sucked as a Yankee..but he was nothing special in Florida or Toronto, all he had going for hime was his K rate, he always seemed a little inconsitent, and injury prone early on. To me in his "glory days" he always seemed to be a pitcher I would pick in the latter rounds as my 4th or 5th starter, but never as a one of my aces
Padres Fan
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Cafeholic
Posts: 2050
Joined: 6 Mar 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Salt Lake City/San Diego

Previous

Return to Draft, Trade, Keeper and Waivers Questions

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2015 MLB season starts in 7:09 hours
(and 89 days)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact