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Nova for Aybar and Revere?

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Re: Nova for Aybar and Revere?

Postby dannahann » Sun Feb 12, 2012 4:39 am

Not quite as high on Aybar as some here but he's plenty good enough to trade Nova and $3 for straight up. Getting a $5 Revere makes this an easy accept.
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Re: Nova for Aybar and Revere?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:42 am

MaudDib wrote:
MadDog36 wrote:I think I might take Nova here. Yes he is over-rated but he will still put up respectable numbers. I can't exactly say that about the other guys.


I think Nova will actually regress this year. He outperformed his base stats in 2011 IMO. Until the kid can strike people out, I don't foresee him as even a league average SP. The Yankees might get him some wins, but striking out 6.5 per 9 innings (which was his best ratio- occurred second half) doesn't do it for me.

Aybar may have had a career year, but he is much more valuable IMO. And Revere is a nice add in.
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Re: Nova for Aybar and Revere?

Postby MaudDib » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:03 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:
MaudDib wrote:
MadDog36 wrote:I think I might take Nova here. Yes he is over-rated but he will still put up respectable numbers. I can't exactly say that about the other guys.


I think Nova will actually regress this year. He outperformed his base stats in 2011 IMO. Until the kid can strike people out, I don't foresee him as even a league average SP. The Yankees might get him some wins, but striking out 6.5 per 9 innings (which was his best ratio- occurred second half) doesn't do it for me.

Aybar may have had a career year, but he is much more valuable IMO. And Revere is a nice add in.


Nova will very likely regress. No real question there. Sometime's I think we look to much at the supporting numbers and forget that these guys are human. Especially with rookies or very young players, I expect their to be improvement as adjust to the new league. Just like we get better with more experience, I expect the same at least to a point. Why Nova will never be anything more than a #3 SP at best, he is more likely to improve on his numbers. Maybe he doesn't get the wins (although pitching for the Yankees, it can be hard NOT to get wins) but his K's could improve along with some of the other secondary numbers.

Aybar is barely ownable IMO. If he can match last years numbers, then he is a very nice player but that was a career year for Aybar. While I think players should be able to adjust and get better, if you have been in the league for sometime and his numbers have been pretty consistent until last year. He suddenly showed power (career year in 2B and HR) and very good speed. The speed is the only thing I think that can continue this year. So if he goes back to 5 HR, 70 R, 50 RBI, 25 SB, I think all of that can be found on the WW. Revere is pretty much the same kind of player and one that will likely give you more speed. I am also not a fan of trading for players that give you one category and that is what these guys are. Speed is much easier to find the past few years and you shouldn't be looking at just one category.

At $6, Nova has pretty decent value and I would have to think you could get something better in return. As he mentioned, Nova is over-hyped which means some owner will likely buy into that hype and trade something with more upside or that can help more. Not two guys who give you 60 SB and very little else.
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Re: Nova for Aybar and Revere?

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:25 am

I just don't see Nova doing anything.. His age is a plus and the hitting behind him is a plus. But other than that, I really don't see any reason for optimism in any of his other stats. He is a ground ball pitcher with a tremendously aging infield (aside from Cano). Tex, Jeter, and ARod aren't going to get any better defensively. Nova only has 3 pitches, none of which I would consider better than league average. He was lucky last year in that he got away without giving up any HR's with runners on base. And his opponents hit% was low.

I wouldn't classify Aybar as barely ownable. We don't know how many teams are in the league, but he makes my top 12. I agree that the power is going to come down, but I think his AVG is legit. His contact rate increased in the second half, his patience grew a tad in the 2nd half, and now he has Pujols hitting behind him. I think a boost in runs is coming. And he had his best year yet as far as SB success rate and SB opportunities went, so I see the 30 being repeatable (with some upside if his patience holds). He is very consistent (aside from the 2011 HR spike, and the 2010 hit% induced low AVG- good and bad luck), which is a rarity among SS. Revere is a nice throw in. Good speed. And like most prospects, if he gains some patience his stats will go up (especially the SB).

I guess I just don't value Nova that much. I'd rather grab a Masterson type than someone whose upside is Masterson IMO.
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Re: Nova for Aybar and Revere?

Postby MaudDib » Sun Feb 12, 2012 11:37 am

Urban Cohorts wrote:I just don't see Nova doing anything.. His age is a plus and the hitting behind him is a plus. But other than that, I really don't see any reason for optimism in any of his other stats. He is a ground ball pitcher with a tremendously aging infield (aside from Cano). Tex, Jeter, and ARod aren't going to get any better defensively. Nova only has 3 pitches, none of which I would consider better than league average. He was lucky last year in that he got away without giving up any HR's with runners on base. And his opponents hit% was low.

I wouldn't classify Aybar as barely ownable. We don't know how many teams are in the league, but he makes my top 12. I agree that the power is going to come down, but I think his AVG is legit. His contact rate increased in the second half, his patience grew a tad in the 2nd half, and now he has Pujols hitting behind him. I think a boost in runs is coming. And he had his best year yet as far as SB success rate and SB opportunities went, so I see the 30 being repeatable (with some upside if his patience holds). He is very consistent (aside from the 2011 HR spike, and the 2010 hit% induced low AVG- good and bad luck), which is a rarity among SS. Revere is a nice throw in. Good speed. And like most prospects, if he gains some patience his stats will go up (especially the SB).

I guess I just don't value Nova that much. I'd rather grab a Masterson type than someone whose upside is Masterson IMO.

Good points. I guess it really comes down to how you build your teams. I doubt I will own either one of these guys, as I really don't trust either. I agree that Nova is replaceable which is why I won't own him unless he is still there at the end of a draft for a flyer pick. Aybar I just won't even consider unless the leauge I am in, is really really deep.

I guess my main point was that the trade wasn't a lock on either side and I felt that the responses were making it seem like it was. So I made a counter argument so that the OP knew what he was getting.
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