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Re: Holds

Postby Niffoc4 » Tue Feb 07, 2012 1:26 pm

Always love to see your rankings GTWMA.

One question, is this mainly based on major league stats, or for relatively inexperienced players are minor league stats included? I noticed that you have Joel Carreno ranked quite high, and while had was good in 15 innings last year, he's not projected to do quite as well long-term. Conversely, I would move up Addison Reed, as he will compete with Jessie Crain for the 8th inning job, and could be DOMINANT.
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Re: Holds

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 07, 2012 2:16 pm

Right now, these are mostly driven by the projections for the three rate stats, K/9, WHIP, and ERA. A lot of times, I'll have some little known guys ranked highly in this list, because rotochamps or CAIRO or one of the other early projection systems has given them a very good projection. Carreno's a good example of this, as rotochamps has a good projection for him and is skewing the numbers since he's not in Fangraphs Fans projection or Bill James.

Two things will push him down. More projections will balance rotochamps, and I'll get around to assessing opportunities to earn wins, saves, and holds. I keep doing it this way because it alerts me to potential sleepers out there. So, what you are doing is exactly what I try to do--identify those guys with potential to contribute because of good K, low BB, low HRs which will lead to low WHIP and ERA, and then adjust for opportunities. Guys like Reed will move up 1-2 tiers. Guys like Carreno will move down 1-2 tiers (or more).

It really helps if people point out guys like Reed, too, as well as let me know anything they see on roles, particularly 8th and 7th inning. I try to follow all of that, but can't get to all 30 teams on a regular basis (and still prep for my own draft!).
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Re: Holds

Postby reiser » Wed Feb 08, 2012 8:45 am

excellent list as always, and thanks so much. For my one league that does holds (and I wish more did) it's indispensable.

List questions: Venters is probably a Tier 1 in my book. 100K is a 100K.
Also, I can't in good conscience have Soriano in Tier 2, given the health concerns over the years.
although I guess if you draft him every other year, like Konerko, it should pay off :)
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Re: Holds

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 08, 2012 6:03 pm

Thanks, reiser.

I was tempted to bump Venters up, and it probably will happen. There were three hesitations--his projections show an uptick in WHIP because of his wildness and low BABIP last year; the way he declined at the end of last year suggests he may get more cautious use; and, the overall strength of the Braves pen makes him vulnerable if he struggles. Still, none of the ranking factors in holds at all, yet, which alone should bump him up.

Soriano's projections right now are for 50-60 IP. I usually wait to see how guys do in a week or two of spring training to make changes due to my own personal thinking on injury potential. But, yeah, he's definitely vulnerable to that. After 2008, of course, he came back great in 2009 and 2010.
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Re: Holds

Postby JackShephard » Mon Feb 27, 2012 8:43 pm

Just now finding this thread. Great work assembling these tiers.
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Re: Holds

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Feb 27, 2012 10:46 pm

Tavish wrote:As far as Clippard, I always get nervous when a RP is following up back-to-back seasons when they pushed 90 IP. More or less a personal preference since I don't believe there is any hard evidence that it leads to problems. Just feels like I've just been burned by pitchers that fit that mold more often than not.

Yeah, people don't pay enough attention to over-worked relievers. They're so caught up in magical IP totals for starting pitchers and making sure the increase isn't too much per season (which I think is complete b-s, but that's another story) and they ignore the guys that get thrown in in consecutive games so many times per season, or throw a ton of games, including games where they throw 20 pitches in the bullpen but don't actually enter the game. That wear and tear does way more damage than a controlled 7 IP every 5 days on a strict regimen that most starters face.

Clippard is a work-horse and we've seen too many instances of great relievers flaming out. I'm surprised there isn't an injury index based on amount of games, amount of back-to-back(-to-back) games, etc. Seems it would be useful. I keep hearing how injury prevention is the market inefficiency or whatever so maybe it'll take a few years for ESPN to make it well known and then the mainstream will catch on. Then Tom Verducci will come up with an arbitrary formula for everybody to follow, haha. Sorry for the tangent...
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Re: Holds

Postby Scooter1027 » Mon Feb 27, 2012 11:13 pm

Terrific list as always. I'm not always up to date on these setup guys, particularly the younger, lesser known ones. This is a very helpful resource.

One guy I think should possibly be a touch higher is K-Rod. He's a clear-cut setup guy on a pretty good team, and Roenicke loves to pigeon-hole his relievers. His WHIP is a touch high, and maybe that's your basis for dropping him a bit, but he's still a guy that should be able to put up a 2.75 ERA with 75 K (still pulled about a 10 K/9 last year), and he managed 17 holds in just a partial season in Milwaukee last year. Plus he's the clear #2 closer option, if the Ax Man were to get hurt, or if he just needed days off at any point.
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Re: Holds

Postby Broncmet724 » Tue Feb 28, 2012 9:49 am

Might want to knock Al Alburquerque down. According to MLBdepthcharts (RHP Al Alburquerque + UPDATE 12/16 - will likely miss half of season (elbow surgery))
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Re: Holds

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:00 pm

Thanks as always guys.

I'm finishing up my work on SP for my draft at the end of March, so that means I can start to dig into the RP stuff in another week or so.I'll shoot for an update by March 11th.

Any updates on injuries, roles, etc that you hear from Spring Training for your teams is much appreciated!
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Re: Holds

Postby ichirosan » Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:53 pm

Might want to add Wilton López now that Brett Myers got the closer job.

BTW... where would you rank Javy Guerra if he were to lose the closer gig, as everybody expects?
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