Yeah I think he will definitely be a .280+ hitter given his hit tool so we just have slightly different opinions. Guys who can take a walk,hit the ball hard and have speed really struggle to not hit .270+ unless they have massive contact issues and his are there but minor.
For this year I'd be looking more like 10 HR, .260 AVG, 25 SB.
Ender wrote:Yeah I think he will definitely be a .280+ hitter given his hit tool so we just have slightly different opinions. Guys who can take a walk,hit the ball hard and have speed really struggle to not hit .270+ unless they have massive contact issues and his are there but minor.
For this year I'd be looking more like 10 HR, .260 AVG, 25 SB.
I like a lot that he hits the ball as hard as he does, but that's also meant a pretty low contact rate ~75% last year in AA. There are a handful of players that have the ability to produce a high average despite that, like CarGo, but it's usually not the case. Regardless, I hope you're right - I have him in another dynasty league of mine.
Alex Gordon, Austin Jackson etc. Hard hitters with speed and a 10% walk with that contact rate pretty much profile in that .270-.290 range. The BB are really important in this. It shows these guys have contact issues but they also have a clue at the plate, they are being selective and waiting for a pitch that they can hit hard. If he didn't have the plate discipline I"d fully agree with you but this is a skillset that can thrive with a 20-22% K rate and still hit for AVG.
Like I said, there are a handful. But it's not much of a surprise to me that the years where those two finished with good BAs are the years when they had contact rates close to or above 80%. When they were ~75%, not so much.
And I really wanted Bauer there.. I was stupid and thought it more important to draft him a round later for keeper purposes instead of just making sure I got him.
Ender wrote:Yeah I think he will definitely be a .280+ hitter given his hit tool so we just have slightly different opinions. Guys who can take a walk,hit the ball hard and have speed really struggle to not hit .270+ unless they have massive contact issues and his are there but minor.
For this year I'd be looking more like 10 HR, .260 AVG, 25 SB.
I like a lot that he hits the ball as hard as he does, but that's also meant a pretty low contact rate ~75% last year in AA. There are a handful of players that have the ability to produce a high average despite that, like CarGo, but it's usually not the case. Regardless, I hope you're right - I have him in another dynasty league of mine.
You guys are too smart/nerdy. I've never even heard of Aaron Hicks
I will make my pick when I get home from Vegas tonight which is in about 5 hours. Sorry for the delay but All the guys I had my eye on got picked so need my spreadsheet to pick.
Ender wrote:I will make my pick when I get home from Vegas tonight which is in about 5 hours. Sorry for the delay but All the guys I had my eye on got picked so need my spreadsheet to pick.
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by Ender » Fri Mar 08, 2013 3:05 pm 
But it's not much of a surprise to me that the years where those two finished with good BAs are the years when they had contact rates close to or above 80%. When they were ~75%, not so much. 
