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In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby m16a » Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:51 pm

Merlin401 wrote:Ok, so of course you're going to find some big league pitching prospects that didn't pan out. Does that mean that we should just throw our hands up and give up? Of course not. Look at the top prospects from 2006:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/fe ... p100c.html

Top 10 has guys like Jeremy Hermida, Lastings Milledge, Brandon Wood... the list goes on and on. I guess there is no such thing as a hitting prospect either? Its fascinating to look back, see what amazing things were being said about various players, and see how wrong many of them turned out to be. Prospecting is very variable, no matter what position or level but that doesnt mean you ignore it...


On the same token, looking back, it was also a rich, rich group. Guys like Hamels, Fielder, Verlander, HanRam, Kemp. It sure drives home just how variable the prospect scene is... 8-o
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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby Ender » Sun Feb 05, 2012 3:07 pm

Same thing sort of applies to hitters though. You can identify hitters who are unlikely to hit the majors running. Anyone with an excessively high K% or low BB% as an example. There is a big difference between taking prospects and talking fantasy worthy prospects for 'this year'. Predicting how someone will change over a single season is pretty easy compared to predicting what they will do over the next 5. So for most fantasy owners as long as we are careful it isn't that hard to avoid the majority of the 'busts'.
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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby machine3 » Sun Feb 05, 2012 9:26 pm

If it was easy to predict who was going to be a stud, it wouldn't be nearly as much fun. ;-D
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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby MasterX1918 » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:51 am

machine3 wrote:If it was easy to predict who was going to be a stud, it wouldn't be nearly as much fun. ;-D

this, all prospects have inherent risk. The way I look at it its sort of like playing the stock market, sometimes even the "sure things" can bust while others can come out of nowhere and become huge gainers. BA seems to be very good at predicting success though, rarely has a guy in their top 10 been a bust.
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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby Merlin401 » Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:35 am

MasterX1918 wrote:
machine3 wrote:If it was easy to predict who was going to be a stud, it wouldn't be nearly as much fun. ;-D

this, all prospects have inherent risk. The way I look at it its sort of like playing the stock market, sometimes even the "sure things" can bust while others can come out of nowhere and become huge gainers. BA seems to be very good at predicting success though, rarely has a guy in their top 10 been a bust.


No thats not true at all. I'm not saying they do a bad job but there are TONS of busts from their top 10s.

Included in 2005's top 10 are: Delmon Young (maybe not a bust for for someone ranked #1 def. a disappointment), Ian Stewart (bust so far), Joel Guzman (total bust), Casey Kotchman (blah, disappointment), Scott Kazmir (kind of a late-blooming bust), Andy Marte (total bust)

How about 1999, going a bit further back: JD Drew (#1 again, disappointing), Rick Ankiel (total pitching bust), Bruce Chen (disappointing), Michael Barrett (total bust), Ryan Anderson (total bust), Pablo Ozuna (total bust), Ruben Mateo (total bust), Matt Clement (total bust). And this year the two they hit on were Eric Chavez and Brad Penny. (NOTE, its not like this year was devoid of talent, #12-14 are Halladay, Berkman, Beltran)
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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby MasterX1918 » Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:50 am

I think that's going back way too far, but that's just me. Scoting and forecasting player success back then was entirely different than it is now. I'd also say a success rate of 50% is pretty good for any sort of list predicting future success in the show. For instance look at their 2008 top 10.

1. Jay Bruce of, Reds
2. Evan Longoria 3b, Rays
3. Joba Chamberlain rhp, Yankees
4. Clay Buchholz rhp, Red Sox
5. Colby Rasmus of, Cardinals
6. Cameron Maybin of, Marlins
7. Clayton Kershaw lhp, Dodgers
8. Franklin Morales lhp, Rockies
9. Homer Bailey rhp, Reds
10. David Price lhp, Rays

i'd say 70% is a pretty high success rate (unless you discount Rasmus), and just outside of that top 10 is Ellsbury, Wieters, McCutchen and Andrus.

they did really well in 2009 also

1. Matt Wieters, c, Orioles
2. David Price, lhp, Rays
3. Colby Rasmus, of, Cardinals
4. Tommy Hanson, rhp, Braves
5. Jason Heyward, of, Braves
6. Travis Snider, of, Blue Jays
7. Brett Anderson, lhp, Athletics
8. Cameron Maybin, of, Marlins
9. Madison Bumgarner, lhp, Giants
10. Neftali Feliz, rhp, Rangers

that's pretty much 90% right there, Anderson has been victim of injuries but has been a success when healthy. Snider is really the only true bust. Cahill, Posey and Stanton are all in the top 20.
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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby Garry26 » Mon Feb 06, 2012 2:19 pm

rib217 wrote: I plan on staying away from Darvish; perhaps I am wrong but it certainly seems like every big name (Ace pitchers) coming out of Japan has not come close to living up to the hype.

DiceK was great before he got hurt and he was ok for a last rounder til he got hurt last year.
Minimum requirement for an "Ace" type Pitcher:
1K an 1 inning ratio with 14+Wins & hopefully good ERA
2007 15W 201Ks 4.40ERA 1.32Whip. Yea 4.40 ERA is high, but he meets the reqs
2008 18W 154Ks 2.90ERA. Near 1/1 ratio much better ERA tho he got hurt

After that he starts getting hurt and you don't want that if you draft him early hoping for a full year. He stays in the neighborhood of the requirements though.

If Darvish gets hurt after a few years of Ace pitcher numbers then he gets hurt. You have no control over that and those are the breaks. Question is: Will he perform while healthy? He does not have to be a TOP Ace either. The idea here is that you get a 15w/200K/OK ERA SP that isnt on ppls radar. Thus giving you an edge in a keeper league where all the "top" players are supposed to be taken. Or an extra stud pick in a regular draft.
I love mock drafts.
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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby Ender » Mon Feb 06, 2012 2:22 pm

How about 1999, going a bit further back: JD Drew (#1 again, disappointing), Rick Ankiel (total pitching bust), Bruce Chen (disappointing), Michael Barrett (total bust), Ryan Anderson (total bust), Pablo Ozuna (total bust), Ruben Mateo (total bust), Matt Clement (total bust). And this year the two they hit on were Eric Chavez and Brad Penny. (NOTE, its not like this year was devoid of talent, #12-14 are Halladay, Berkman, Beltran)


The fact they got Halladay, Berkman and Beltran into the top 15 is a positive, not a negative. Also I think your opinion of a total bust is too strong. Michael Barrett was a very good C, he just had his career end early because of injuries. Rick Ankiel had a very good start as a pitcher, he is sort of a unique case in general. JD Drew has played fantastic baseball when healthy, he is another one derailed by injuries. Matt Clement was a very decent pitcher in his prime as well but again he got hurt.

I do think the top lists put too much stock in 'tools' though and that tends to cause some problems. You can have all the tools in the world but if your fundamentals are bad you are going to struggle to succeed.
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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby MasterX1918 » Mon Feb 06, 2012 2:26 pm

there's definitely intangibles beneath the surface that factor into making a baseball player great, I think Dustin Pedroia is a good example of that.
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Re: In Search of the Elusive 'Pitching Prospect'

Postby Merlin401 » Mon Feb 06, 2012 2:36 pm

Ender wrote:The fact they got Halladay, Berkman and Beltran into the top 15 is a positive, not a negative. Also I think your opinion of a total bust is too strong. Michael Barrett was a very good C, he just had his career end early because of injuries. Rick Ankiel had a very good start as a pitcher, he is sort of a unique case in general. JD Drew has played fantastic baseball when healthy, he is another one derailed by injuries. Matt Clement was a very decent pitcher in his prime as well but again he got hurt.

I do think the top lists put too much stock in 'tools' though and that tends to cause some problems. You can have all the tools in the world but if your fundamentals are bad you are going to struggle to succeed.


Look, I'm not saying BA was wrong to rank them that way. I understand that very promising careers were derailed by chronic injury, freak injuries, crazy loss of confidence or control or velocity, drugs, whatever. But that's my point, there's no sure things when you're projecting young players. A million things COULD go wrong, and probably for 50% of them, something DOES go wrong.

I don't like looking at 2009 btw. Maybe it will be a great year for their projections but those guys still very well may bust. Travis Snider you're counting as a success? Rasmus? Who the hell knows... We'll see.
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