20 team dynasty H2H; 6x6 w/OPS & Holds; 22 ML keepers, 15-man farm
Keepers: 1. C - Kurt Suzuki (OAK) 2. 1B - Brandon Allen (OAK) 3. 1B - Matt LaPorta (CLE) 4. 2B - Reid Brignac (TB) 5. 3B - Danny Valencia (MIN) 6. RF - Shin-Soo Choo (CLE) 7. CF - Shane Victorino (PHI) 8. CF - Jordan Schafer (HOU) 9. LF - Matt Holliday (STL) 10. LF - Travis Snider (TOR) 11. LF - Nolan Reimold (BAL) 12. SP - Jered Weaver (LAA) 13. SP - Adam Wainwright (STL) 14. SP - Trevor Cahill (ARI) 15. SP - Daniel Duffy (KC) 16. SP - Jordan Lyles (HOU) 17. SP - Anibal Sanchez (FLA) 18. RP - Jason Motte (STL) 19. RP - John Axford (MIL) 20. RP - Aaron Crow (KC) 21. RP - Rex Brothers (COL) 22. RP - Fautino De Los Santos (OAK)
Farm Club: 1. Cowart, Kaleb (0 Abs - 3B - LAA) 2. Franklin, Nick (0 Abs - SS - SEA) 3. Hicks, Aaron (0 Abs - OF - MIN) 4. McNutt, Trey (0 IPs - SP - CHC) 5. Miley, Wade (40 IP – SP - ARZ) 6. Mitchell, Jared (0 Abs - OF - CWS) 7. Pimentel, Guillermo (0 Abs - OF - SEA) 8. Richards, Garrett (14 IP - SP - LAA) 9. Rizzo, Anthony (128 Abs - 1B - CHC) 10. Salcedo, Edward (0 Abs - SS/3B - ATL) 11. Sale, Josh (0 Abs - OF - TB) 12. Segura, Jean (0 Abs - 2B/SS - LAA) 13. Singleton, Jonathan (0 Abs - 1B - HOU) 14. Torres, Alex (0 IP - SP - TB) 15. Turner, Jacob (12 IPs - SP - DET)
I'm in the midst of a major rebuilding process. I have the #3 pick in the upcoming prospect draft, so will be drafting one of Rendon/Darvish/Bauer in that order.
My best players are between 29 and 32 years old: Holliday, Victorino, Choo, Weaver and Wainwright, so all will likely be moved this season as the rebuilding process continues.
I have tried targeting top prospects such as Harper, Trout, Machado, Profar, Myers, etc. to no avail. Proceeding down the list, I contacted the owner of Arenado who voiced interest in Victorino.
We have verbally agreed to the following deal: My Shane Victorino and Trevor Cahill in exchange for Nolan Arenado and Manny Banuelos
I believe that Victorino for Arenado is fair value long-term, with Victorino having more value in the next 2-3 years. While Victorino is a top-70 player and top-15 OF this season, he is 31 years old, did not run that much last year, and can only decline in value from here on out. Cahill is currently contributing in the majors, but has #2 upside and is more appropriately a solid #3. Banuelos has #1/#2 upside, with move K potential, and therefore more upside.
It is a risk to move current contributors for prospects, but my strategy is to amass as much talent as possible and hope that more than a few "hit". I think Arenado is the best I can get for Victorino, and I believe that Banuelos will be a better pitcher than Cahill in 3-4 years.
Would you pull the trigger?
Owner of the Atlanta Braves in Strike Zone Dynasty
Given your analysis of what is available and for who, I feel that you have thought this through so that the deal makes sense given the circumstances. Prospects are a random thing, so Arenado and Banuelos may or may not turn out as hoped. However, they may be a great investment. You never know, so if you are feeling good about them, I would make the trade because Victorino and Cahill are good mid-tier pieces to use for speculative acquisitions.
The trade looks reasonable given all that you have said. Victorino is a decent OF, but his long term use is limited and who knows how he will do in 2012 (I'm not foreseeing a leap forward by any means). So if Arenado and Banuelos are the best you can do, not an issue. I wouldn't worry too much about losing Cahill either.
Personally I wouldn't. If I'm dealing Victorino, I want to get a more proven player back. I don't like thinking in "what if's" three or four years down the line. I'm fine moving someone like Cahill, but not a top performer, especially in a twenty team league.