JackShephard wrote:Does anyone have a complete list of those players who will be in their contract year in 2012?
This question inevitably comes up every year, and while you didn't specify the reason behind your inquiry, I'll save some other people a bit of breath, just in case.
If you're looking for contract year players to see who may be 'motivated' to have a good year, I'll just remind you that there has never been any positive correlative data between contract year players and a spike in performance. For every Adrian Beltre contract year performance there are guys who have normal and below average years.
If you're just looking because you're curious or some other reason, well, then, use that link GF posted.
bigh0rt wrote:If you're looking for contract year players to see who may be 'motivated' to have a good year, I'll just remind you that there has never been any positive correlative data between contract year players and a spike in performance. For every Adrian Beltre contract year performance there are multiple guys who have normal and below average years.
JackShephard wrote:Does anyone have a complete list of those players who will be in their contract year in 2012?
This question inevitably comes up every year, and while you didn't specify the reason behind your inquiry, I'll save some other people a bit of breath, just in case.
If you're looking for contract year players to see who may be 'motivated' to have a good year, I'll just remind you that there has never been any positive correlative data between contract year players and a spike in performance. For every Adrian Beltre contract year performance there are guys who have normal and below average years.
If you're just looking because you're curious or some other reason, well, then, use that link GF posted.
I've looked at this very briefly by going back and looking at the top 10-15 contract year guys for a couple years and the majority perform pretty much as they ever have. What I think you won't see from those contract year guys is they won't "go through the motions" during the dog days or "mail it in" if the team is out of it by July/August...they'll certainly want to pad the stats if possible(which is good for fantasy). But yeah, there is no magical switch they can just turn on and put out a career year....I will say it's more likely they'll have a good year as a bad year(I think normally if there was a bad year in there it was due to injury) but it's far more likely they are pretty much the same as they've always been.
**Keep in mind those thoughts/findings are nothing scientific nor did I look at near enough data to form any real conclusion but what I did see lines up with what I would normally think anyway...which is...the player generally ends up with normal stats you'd expect but the chance they have a good/better year(and the good/better year is just that, good or slightly better, not an amazing out of nowhere career year) is slightly better than they have a poor year...both of which is still a much lower percentage chance than they just end up doing what they normally would.
JackShephard wrote:Does anyone have a complete list of those players who will be in their contract year in 2012?
This question inevitably comes up every year, and while you didn't specify the reason behind your inquiry, I'll save some other people a bit of breath, just in case.
If you're looking for contract year players to see who may be 'motivated' to have a good year, I'll just remind you that there has never been any positive correlative data between contract year players and a spike in performance. For every Adrian Beltre contract year performance there are guys who have normal and below average years.
If you're just looking because you're curious or some other reason, well, then, use that link GF posted.
I agree. For every Adrian Beltre there is an Andruw Jones. For the most part, the contract season means nothing to me. I may use it as a tiebreaker if I'm torn between a couple of similar players. It's worth keeping the list handy, but don't read into it too much.
I assume there's a better chance of playing through injury or coming back early from a broken forearm if it's a contract year. You think Pujols comes back after 2 weeks if he breaks his arm in 2012?
I'm guessing if you took a really deep look at things you'd find that the correlation between contract years helping a player or not matches their age based growth pretty closely. A lot of guys are at the end of their contracts during the prime of their career and it is just age based growth that you are seeing. A lot of players have bad seasons in contract years and it is because it is their age based decline phase going into their 2nd or 3rd post FA contract.
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by JackShephard » Tue Jan 31, 2012 10:05 pm 
