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Keeper League Blockbuster...

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Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby bobellis75 » Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:31 am

Ok...a quick background on the league...we play this particular league at Scoresheet.com - which is more of a simulation league than a "fantasy" league...counts defense, etc., into the equation. It's an NL only league, where each roster is allowed to keep up to 2 crossover players from the AL each year should a guy be traded...so for examle...Teixeira has been bouncing around our league for a while now and is my first baseman.

Trade offer...I give up Teixeira and Matt Kemp

I get...Pujols, McCutchen, 2 prospects (Cory Spangenburg 2B, Wilmer Flores SS) and a Round 7 draft pick thrown in.

Spangenburg should be a very solid 2B option a couple years down the road (my guy right now is Neil Walker) and Flores has a ton of potential....

The question is...for the near future...is a slight upgrade at 1B worth the slight downgrade in the OF??? I'm of the belief that Kemp will come back down to earth a bit, while McCutchen should continue to get a little better...they will likely be pretty similar players eventually....maybe as soon as this year.

Thoughts on this deal??? Much appreciated!!
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Re: Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby MaudDib » Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:38 am

I don't care for the prospects you are getting in return. I know they both have potential but I just don't see them being every day major leaguers.

As for the trade, I am fine with it. Kemp is likely to regress a little and I think McCutchen has more in him. Kemp is still the better player but I think it could be closer than people realize. I think it helps your team now while not hurting you that bad in the long run.
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Re: Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby bobellis75 » Tue Jan 31, 2012 11:41 am

MaudDib wrote:I don't care for the prospects you are getting in return. I know they both have potential but I just don't see them being every day major leaguers.

As for the trade, I am fine with it. Kemp is likely to regress a little and I think McCutchen has more in him. Kemp is still the better player but I think it could be closer than people realize. I think it helps your team now while not hurting you that bad in the long run.



Thanks for your thoughts on this. I'm not crazy about Flores anymore (I at one point thought he would be a stud). I do think Spangenburg will be solid. The real key is that I'm in a position to win this year....so would I be dumb to move Kemp....I feel like Teixeira isn't much behind Albert in production....I think Tex will bounce back in average this year and probably out-homer Albert by a handful of bombs.....probably post similar runs/RBI as well. So I'm just wary of the Kemp/McCutchen side of the deal...

Appreciate your quick reply on this one, MaudDib. Anyone else care to weigh in? The more the merrier.....
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Re: Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby SpecialFNK » Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:09 pm

Pujols is such a big name and one of the best in the game, but Teixeira really isn't that far behind. Teixeira had bad luck in 2010 and even worse luck in 2011. I really wouldn't be surprised if he gets back to his normal level. I would think he should get back to .280 at least and .290+.
I have no idea on the prospects, so I can't factor them in. but I'd rather have Kemp/Teixeira than Pujols/McCutchen.

help?
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Re: Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby praetorian77 » Tue Jan 31, 2012 8:01 pm

Tough choice but to be honest your probably better off keeping what you have...

I didnt understand one thing tho... Are you able to keep Tex for next year too or is this the last year... Because if it is it might be good to do the trade to get 2 years out of Pujols... The production difference isn't much with the two first basemen and like you said Kemp 2 years ago was really good but not mvp, so I look for a year in the middle between the two he had, and McCutchen to get better...
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Re: Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby toledomudhens » Wed Feb 01, 2012 3:02 am

praetorian77 wrote:Tough choice but to be honest your probably better off keeping what you have...

I didnt understand one thing tho... Are you able to keep Tex for next year too or is this the last year... Because if it is it might be good to do the trade to get 2 years out of Pujols... The production difference isn't much with the two first basemen and like you said Kemp 2 years ago was really good but not mvp, so I look for a year in the middle between the two he had, and McCutchen to get better...



agree with this....IF u get to keep pujols longer then tex, im in..... ;-D
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Re: Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby bobellis75 » Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:34 am

Two answer the last couple of posts...there is no limit...we can keep guys as long as we want. So yeah...I can keep Tex or Kemp as long as I want (or if I made the trade, keep Pujols/McCutchen as long as I want).
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Re: Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby bobellis75 » Wed Feb 01, 2012 3:45 pm

Doing my projections using Fangraphs....I have come up with the following comparison...keeping in mind this isn't a standard fantasy league, but a simulation league where everything counts (defense, etc) the projected WAR for 2012 (according to my projections, and WAR does include a projected UZR defensive score) for each guy:

Kemp - 6.1
McCutchen - 5.8
Pujols - 5.5
Tex - 5.5

I have Kemp at .876 OPS, 40 2B, 28 HR, 36 SB
McCutchen at .816 OPS, 41 2B, 18 HR, 36 SB

Pujols at .924 OPS, 35 2B, 38 HR, 5 SB
Tex at .876 OPS, 35 2B, 33 HR, 4 SB

I try to be "safe" with my projections...so I'm not sure if I've lowballed McCutchen on power or not...but I don't see him hitting more than about 23 HR or so while Kemp could be more up around 35 or so....

In the game (at Scoresheet.com)...the defensive scores have McCutchen just a tick above Kemp, and Pujols is a little better than Tex.
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Re: Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby kidsilk » Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:45 pm

I'd want Pujols and McCutchen side. Pujols in my opinion is much better than Teix just due to avg and ops. McCutchen should only improve and there is no way Kemp repeats last year's stats.

please help

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Re: Keeper League Blockbuster...

Postby Urban Cohorts » Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:08 pm

I think the deal is fairly close. Can't fault you for going with either side, even though I like Kemp/Tex slightly more than Pujols/McCutchen. But that doesn't account for the prospects and draft pick. So I'd probably make the trade and be happy with the extra prospects and draft pick.
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