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Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

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Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby Beeblebrox » Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:42 pm

I had another thread going about deciding between Haren or Moore, but it seems that I might have been starting in the wrong spot. So let me try it this way....


I won this league last year, and I think I've got a good shot to repeat. 12 teams, 5x5 scoring.

C - empty (I always dump my C just before the season ends and find someone on the WW that might have trade value to make a deal during the next spring training)
1B - Pujols
2B - Pedrioa
SS - Andrus
3B - Zimmerman
LF - Morse
CF - Kemp
RF - JUpton
UTIL - Ellsbury (sadly will be losing LF-eligibility in 2012)
UTIL - Bruce
Bench - Zobrist, Aramis, Swisher, Either, Kendrys (the guy I dumped my C for)

SP - Kershaw
SP - Hamels
P - Haren
P - Cain
P - Romero
P - Oswalt
RP - Betancourt
RP - League
Bench - Matt Moore, Wainwright, Aroldis


Since we only keep 10, there's a lot of talent there I don't want to simply lose for nothing back into the draft. There's no restrictions or positional requirements, I could potentially keep anyone listed until they retire.

I plan to throw significant packages, 2 or 3 players, at the two teams that finished at the bottom last year, and since their keeper groups are objectively bad (Youkilis and Vernon Wells are realistic options for them), I figure I can essentially buy the first 2 picks in the draft with players I can't keep anyway.


If you were going to pick 12 keepers from that group, who would they be? I need to get a firm grasp on that, so I can decide what packages of the other players will work best to use for acquiring the first two picks in the draft, essentially giving me 12 keepers.
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Re: Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:53 pm

Pujols
Pedrioa
Morse
Kemp
Upton
Ellsbury
Bruce
Zobrist

Kershaw
Hamels
Cain

Last spot is sort of a toss-up depending on what you favor Moore, Wainwright, Zimmerman are all pretty close in value to me. I would probably go with Moore just for the upside potential.
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Re: Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby MaudDib » Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:57 pm

1B - Pujols ;-D
2B - Pedrioa ;-D
SS - Andrus ;-D
3B - Zimmerman ;-D
LF - Morse
CF - Kemp ;-D
RF - JUpton ;-D
UTIL - Ellsbury (sadly will be losing LF-eligibility in 2012) ;-D
UTIL - Bruce ;-D
Bench - Zobrist, Aramis, Swisher, Either, Kendrys (the guy I dumped my C for)

SP - Kershaw ;-D
SP - Hamels ;-D
P - Haren
P - Cain ;-D
P - Romero
P - Oswalt
RP - Betancourt
RP - League
Bench - Matt Moore ;-D , Wainwright, Aroldis

This is the way I see it. I could see taking Wainwright over Moore or Andrus but I like Moore long-term over Wainwright and your keepers are good enough to take a risk and Andrus has pretty good value and I would imagine SS is pretty thin after 12 keepers.
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Re: Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby Beeblebrox » Mon Jan 30, 2012 5:57 pm

Zobrist? I hadn't even considered him at all, since he only qualifies at 2B and RF in my league, and those spots are already pretty well occupied, as well as the UTIL spots. He'd just be a bench player for me.
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Re: Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby Beeblebrox » Mon Jan 30, 2012 6:04 pm

MaudDib wrote:1B - Pujols ;-D
2B - Pedrioa ;-D
SS - Andrus ;-D
3B - Zimmerman ;-D
LF - Morse
CF - Kemp ;-D
RF - JUpton ;-D
UTIL - Ellsbury (sadly will be losing LF-eligibility in 2012) ;-D
UTIL - Bruce ;-D
Bench - Zobrist, Aramis, Swisher, Either, Kendrys (the guy I dumped my C for)

SP - Kershaw ;-D
SP - Hamels ;-D
P - Haren
P - Cain ;-D
P - Romero
P - Oswalt
RP - Betancourt
RP - League
Bench - Matt Moore ;-D , Wainwright, Aroldis

This is the way I see it. I could see taking Wainwright over Moore or Andrus but I like Moore long-term over Wainwright and your keepers are good enough to take a risk and Andrus has pretty good value and I would imagine SS is pretty thin after 12 keepers.



That's close to how I saw it too, although I had Morse instead of Cain....and was wavering on the last pick, as I was apparently undervaluing Moore.

You are right about SS, it gets very thin quick with 120 total players kept before the draft.

But LF gets pretty thin too. After Braun, CarGo and Crawford, things go downhill quick, and even 2 of those 3 guys have big question marks around them.
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Re: Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby MaudDib » Mon Jan 30, 2012 6:13 pm

Beeblebrox wrote:
That's close to how I saw it too, although I had Morse instead of Cain....and was wavering on the last pick, as I was apparently undervaluing Moore.

You are right about SS, it gets very thin quick with 120 total players kept before the draft.

But LF gets pretty thin too. After Braun, CarGo and Crawford, things go downhill quick, and even 2 of those 3 guys have big question marks around them.


I saw that about LF as well. I just don't know who i would cut. I am not that big on Morse anyway and everyone else is already really good or has pretty big upside. Keeping those players means you just have to draft a LF and util spot so maybe Morse will still be there in the first round and you won't have to worry about it. But if you let Moore or Andrus go, they won't be around long in the draft. Heck even Wainwright will be snatched up pretty quickly i would imagine.
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Re: Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby Tavish » Mon Jan 30, 2012 6:14 pm

Beeblebrox wrote:Zobrist? I hadn't even considered him at all, since he only qualifies at 2B and RF in my league, and those spots are already pretty well occupied, as well as the UTIL spots. He'd just be a bench player for me.

Those are just my top 12, I think he would easily fall into that category based on your team. It is tough to make a choice based on how they would fit into your roster next season when you are planning on trying to trade 1/4 of the players anyways.
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Re: Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby fast dogs » Mon Jan 30, 2012 6:21 pm

With so much talent to choose from, I'd think you can allow the teams needing players to find their favorites from your surplus. If you say I'm keeping player A & B, pick from CDEF, they might not go for it and you'll get no picks. You've got many extras to choose from including Zobrist, the important thing is to get those picks. Give the guys owning them options
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Re: Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby Beeblebrox » Mon Jan 30, 2012 6:24 pm

MaudDib wrote:I saw that about LF as well. I just don't know who i would cut. I am not that big on Morse anyway and everyone else is already really good or has pretty big upside. Keeping those players means you just have to draft a LF and util spot so maybe Morse will still be there in the first round and you won't have to worry about it. But if you let Moore or Andrus go, they won't be around long in the draft. Heck even Wainwright will be snatched up pretty quickly i would imagine.


Which is a big part of my problem. Very few of the players I let go have any chance of getting back to me.

To make matters worse, it's a non-snake draft. I don't get do something strategic like holding almost all of the starting offense and then doubling up on whatever quality SP falls to me at the turn.



Tavish wrote:Those are just my top 12, I think he would easily fall into that category based on your team. It is tough to make a choice based on how they would fit into your roster next season when you are planning on trying to trade 1/4 of the players anyways.


Indeed it is.

My initial thought was to offer something like Zobrist+Romero+Aroldis to one team....and maybe Aramis+Cain+Wainwright to the other. I think that would get it done, but I'm just guessing.

That would leave me able to keep the whole starting offense, plus Kershaw and Hamels, and leave me with a decision between Haren and Moore for the last of the 12 spots. But I'm not sure that's the best route either.
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Re: Trying to turn 10 keepers into 12...

Postby Beeblebrox » Mon Jan 30, 2012 6:26 pm

fast dogs wrote:With so much talent to choose from, I'd think you can allow the teams needing players to find their favorites from your surplus. If you say I'm keeping player A & B, pick from CDEF, they might not go for it and you'll get no picks. You've got many extras to choose from including Zobrist, the important thing is to get those picks. Give the guys owning them options


So, what would you consider my surplus?

I generally don't like to think of anyone as untouchable, but some are certainly more "touchable" than others
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