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Should I trade for Lincecum

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Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby oakscorps » Sun Jan 29, 2012 9:12 am

i would have to give up Strasburg and Phillips

Would leave my keepers as Pujols, Reyes, Wright, Ellsbury, Kemp, Weaver, Haren, Lincecum.

I was planning on keeping Phillips...Should I make trading knowing I might take a big hit at 2B

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Re: Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby MashinSpuds » Sun Jan 29, 2012 10:39 am

Tough one, though not because of Phillips. People say that one should keep the best guys for their keeper list, and getting Lincecum would, right now, look like the best of all three (Lincecum, Phillips, Strasburg). Second base would take a hit, but it's not like you're trading away Pedroia or Cano. You could find another Phillips (or Phillips-lite) with a little effort in the draft. It comes down to Lincecum versus Strasburg really.

I would do the trade because, although Strasburg looks to be fantastic in his career, Lincecum is one of the best in the game. Going in with Lincecum/Weaver/Haren would be a dominant pitching lineup. Also, since it seems you're more concerned about keeping Phillips, it doesn't seem that Strasburg is in your keeper intentions anyway. Therefore, if you really want Lincecum, forget Phillips and get him.

As a side question, I was wondering why you were so interested in keeping Haren? Great pitcher, solid statistics, but not too much different than Strasburg. If you're really concerned about losing a 2B, you could switch out Haren for Strasburg (younger, higher potential) and keep Phillips instead of trading for Lincecum.

Pujols, Phillips, Reyes, Wright, Ellsbury, Kemp, Weaver, Strasburg <--- looks pretty good too
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Re: Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sun Jan 29, 2012 12:22 pm

Is there a certain number of keepers you can have?

Because if it comes down to Lincecum vs. either Strasuburg or Phillips, I'd make the trade. Best to upgrade your keeper spots if you have a limited number of them.
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Re: Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby fast dogs » Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:38 pm

2nd base has some useable options later, I'd add Linc here
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Re: Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby MaudDib » Sun Jan 29, 2012 1:49 pm

I think I would keep Strasburg. He has a ton of ability and could easily be one of the best pitchers this year even on an innings limit. If you could add Haren instead of Strasburg then I really like the deal. Saying all that I am worried about Lincecum. His numbers have been declining for the past couple years and I am not sure this is the time to buy. I just don't know if he is going to turn things around or this is the pitcher he has become. Either way I would rather have someone else take that risk right now and keep the young stud in Strasburg.
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Re: Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sun Jan 29, 2012 2:09 pm

Urban Cohorts wrote:Is there a certain number of keepers you can have?

Because if it comes down to Lincecum vs. either Strasuburg or Phillips, I'd make the trade. Best to upgrade your keeper spots if you have a limited number of them.


Yup. If you can only keep one of them then you might as well upgrade.
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Re: Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Sun Jan 29, 2012 4:18 pm

MaudDib wrote:I think I would keep Strasburg. He has a ton of ability and could easily be one of the best pitchers this year even on an innings limit. If you could add Haren instead of Strasburg then I really like the deal. Saying all that I am worried about Lincecum. His numbers have been declining for the past couple years and I am not sure this is the time to buy. I just don't know if he is going to turn things around or this is the pitcher he has become. Either way I would rather have someone else take that risk right now and keep the young stud in Strasburg.


While Lincecum carries some risk, you have to acknowledge that Strasburg carries just as much if not more. He'll also be on an innings limit. I think you have to ask yourself, just how much better is Lincecum than Strasburg? And how far are you willing to project into the future to get the answer you want?
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Re: Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby oakscorps » Sun Jan 29, 2012 4:30 pm

There are 8 keepers

Pujols, Reyes, Wright, Kemp, Haren, Weaver, and Ellsbury are definates for me. Even though I like Strasburg more then Phillips he has scared me off some with his injury. I think I would rather have Lincecum then either Phillips or Strasburg
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Re: Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby MaudDib » Mon Jan 30, 2012 11:38 am

lane_anasazi2 wrote:
MaudDib wrote:I think I would keep Strasburg. He has a ton of ability and could easily be one of the best pitchers this year even on an innings limit. If you could add Haren instead of Strasburg then I really like the deal. Saying all that I am worried about Lincecum. His numbers have been declining for the past couple years and I am not sure this is the time to buy. I just don't know if he is going to turn things around or this is the pitcher he has become. Either way I would rather have someone else take that risk right now and keep the young stud in Strasburg.


While Lincecum carries some risk, you have to acknowledge that Strasburg carries just as much if not more. He'll also be on an innings limit. I think you have to ask yourself, just how much better is Lincecum than Strasburg? And how far are you willing to project into the future to get the answer you want?


I am not sure I agree that Strasburg carries more risk than Lincecum. They both are risky but I don't think I am concerned about injuries right now. Strasburg just came back from TJ surgery but usually that is a one time thing and not something that will cause problems down the road. The thing that causes me to worry more about Lincecum is:

K/9 has been falling since 2008 and is now down by 1.5 K/9
BB/9 has been steadily increasing since 2009
HR/FB % jumped after 2009
xFIP has increased steadily since 2009

I am not trying to say that Lincecum isn't still one of the better pitchers in the game but there are things to be worried here. While Strasburg has little to back up what he can do, I would rather go with his upside. Where I don't feel that Lincecum has much upside anymore.
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Re: Should I trade for Lincecum

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Mon Jan 30, 2012 4:23 pm

MaudDib wrote:I am not sure I agree that Strasburg carries more risk than Lincecum. They both are risky but I don't think I am concerned about injuries right now. Strasburg just came back from TJ surgery but usually that is a one time thing and not something that will cause problems down the road.


I'm absolutely not the one to make a call on this, but I've READ articles with quotes by multiple scouts saying they were not surprised Starsburg got hurt, that it was only a matter of time with his mechanics. I don't know how much stock to put in that, but if there's something mechanically wonky with his delivery, it wouldn't be a one time thing, yeah?
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