Honestly, I think Holliday is the safer, more consistent play. I don't foresee him missing time this year, and though he did last year, he posted very reasonable stats when he played. Not so sure how the Pujols loss will effect him, but Beltran isn't a slouch. His downside is his age (32 this season), coming off minor injury, and plays in the OF, which is more stacked than 3B.
Wright has more talent IMO. He just hasn't been the same guy 2 of the last 3 seasons. His power was sapped last year (probably due to injury) and in 2009 as well. But with the fences being moved in, I think he can post good power numbers again. His speed improved last year, and with injured guys and/or not so great guys in front or him or behind him, I'd imagine he gets to run a tad more frequently. I think that in 2012 he will produce a line close to that of 2006, but with less Runs and RBI. Similar HR, SB, AVG, and OBP.
the top 3rd basemen are just so valueable this year it is just hard to go against the younger Wright. Holliday has taken a fantasy step down from a year ago or this would be closer
I would cautiously go with Wright. Obviously injury is a big concern, but Holliday missed time last year also. Extrapolating his last years stats to 150 games gimes him around 20 HR, 20 SB an 90 Runs and RBI. His average was low but he had a horrendous start. I see him bouncing back to the 290 range with 95 or so runs and RBI. His HR total should go up a little with the fences being moved in, somewhere around 25 HR, along with 25 steals. I see Hollidays numbers somewhat adversely affected by the departure of Pujols. I see his numbers being quite similar to Wrights with a higher Avg somewhere in the 300-310 range but with just a few steals. Given the scarcity of quality 3B out there i feel Wright is the better bet. The steals seal the deal for him.
Wright is the riskier pick but that's who I'd go for. He's capable up putting up 1st round numbers, and getting that from 3B is just insanely valuable.