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2012 Wisdom of the Crowds/Aggregate Projection: Update 2/25

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2012 Wisdom of the Crowds/Aggregate Projection: Update 2/25

Postby Curtis Pride » Mon Jan 23, 2012 2:21 pm

Update 3/15: Added one last source: Marcels. Also added a column showing AL/NL, and removed any players that didn't show up on at least 3 lists.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... TJ2M3ctRnc

Update 2/25: Added one more source (Steamer) and also completed the ZIPS projections. 10 sources now. I've removed any player who wasn't on at least three lists to prevent weird projections from getting on the list. There may be some duplicates on third tier players, but the 400-600 players should all be unique. I likely won't be importing any new sources, but may do some more small cleanup. And thanks again to those who are donating. It's made me compelled to make more edits and improvements.

Update (2/17): Added 3 new sources (ESPN, CBS, Davenport), also tweaked the "value metric" a bit to make it more accurate to recent stats, and included both a "5x5" and "OPS" value for those in different types of leagues. I still wouldn't use the "value" as a be-all; end all, but it's better than sorting just by name or AB/IP

updated link (2/6): Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... TJ2M3ctRnc

Update: 1/31. Made some cleanup edits cleaning up some pitchers that were missing, and also added the paypal link for those willing: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?c ... ostedGuest

The concept is to aggregate/average out a bunch of projection systems to come up with a a new projection. This is based off the "Wisdom of the Crowds" mentality where predictions of wide range of lay people are typically more accurate than any single prediction of experts. Fangraphs has been doing a lot more of this the last year, (see today's post on Yu Darvish: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index. ... 5x5-stats/), and I think that eventually Fangraphs will eventually have this as part of their site, but they don't right now, so I will do it.

Currently, I only have 4 inputs, but as projections come out from CBS, Yahoo, ESPN, etc, these will be a bit more refined. Very early stage, but I figured I would post them anyways. I have only included those people with at least 2 sources of input. As I get more inputs, I will increase the minimum. If you have links to any other freely available projections, please let me know.

And if anyone is feeling generous: here's a paypal link: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?c ... ostedGuest


edit: note, the "value" is based on OPS leagues, and I wouldn't really pay much more than "directional" attention to it, and I especially don't recommend using it to compare hitters to pitchers - it's overstates the value of pitchers (and steals) a bit is my assumption, but I just haven't spent much time trying to fix it.
Last edited by Curtis Pride on Thu Mar 15, 2012 11:40 am, edited 14 times in total.
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Re: 2012 Wisdom of the Crowds / Aggregate Projections (Year

Postby silverZ » Mon Jan 23, 2012 4:38 pm

I love this. Thanks a lot! ;-D ;-D
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Re: 2012 Wisdom of the Crowds / Aggregate Projections (Year

Postby J35J » Mon Jan 23, 2012 10:46 pm

Yup, thanks for the work put in. This is what makes the cafe so great...all kinds of different goodies to get your hands on to prepare for the upcoming year. ;-D
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Re: 2012 Wisdom of the Crowds / Aggregate Projections (Year

Postby Element » Tue Jan 24, 2012 12:38 am

Good work as always. Keep it up to date. I'm sure that many will find it useful.
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Re: 2012 Wisdom of the Crowds / Aggregate Projections (Year

Postby bigken117 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 11:34 am

great stuff ;-D
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Re: 2012 Wisdom of the Crowds / Aggregate Projections (Year

Postby DaShiz23 » Tue Jan 24, 2012 5:14 pm

Thats what I am talking about!
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Re: 2012 Wisdom of the Crowds / Aggregate Projections (Year

Postby AHF » Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:21 pm

Very interesting.

Does anyone know if there is a similar resource with auction values published by CBS, yahoo, ESPN, etc.?
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Re: 2012 Wisdom of the Crowds / Aggregate Projections (Year

Postby Curtis Pride » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:36 pm

AHF wrote:Very interesting.

Does anyone know if there is a similar resource with auction values published by CBS, yahoo, ESPN, etc.?


It's very easy. All you need to do with that is a simple "averageif" function in excel. Which is basically what this spreadsheet is, but with a lot more columns to average from.
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Re: 2012 Wisdom of the Crowds / Aggregate Projections (Year

Postby Dugout Diamonds » Fri Jan 27, 2012 7:33 pm

Great job. Very interesting/useful. I don't see a potential keeper of mine, James Shields. Must have been left off.
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Re: 2012 Wisdom of the Crowds / Aggregate Projections (Year

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Jan 31, 2012 5:12 pm

Updated. Cleaned up some errors (notably that some people, like James Shields, mentioned above, were left off)

Link again: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... VdCVjhMRFE

And if anyone is feeling generous, here's a paypal link: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?c ... ostedGuest
Last edited by Curtis Pride on Mon Feb 06, 2012 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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