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Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

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Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby icemic » Sat Jan 21, 2012 2:58 am

Context is 5x5 H2H Dynasty league with salaries and contract lengths:

So I have what I believe to be a competitive team for this year. I am pretty well set in pitching and so I have been trying to move some of my pitching for some top prospects. I will list the players I need to give along with their contracts and I'd like help evaluating this trade. My first thought is no, I'm giving too much with Choo. Take Choo and Rios out and we'd be good.
I give:
David Price = $15 w/ 2 more seasons left on contract
Tim Hudson = $5 w/ 3 "
Choo = $1 w/ 2 "
Danny Duffy = $1 w/ minors contract (minors players do not start accruing years until I activate them)(This is just a throw in to make room on my roster for the prospects)

I get:
Trevor Cahill = $17 w/ 2 more seasons left on contract (don't like him, but needed to get a usable starter in return)
Julio Teheran = $1 w/minors contract
Shelby Miller = $1 w/minors contract
Alex Rios = $4 w/ 2 years left on contract (This is to soften the blow of losing Choo and hoping that he will have a bounce back year)

2 questions:
1. Does this damage my pitching too much?
2. Am I overpaying to have this prospects at a dirt cheap price for 3 years once I decide to activate them?
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Re: Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby Element » Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:49 am

What is your draft cap? How do the minor league contracts work?

My initial response is that this is a terrible trade for you. Price is already an upper tier starter and $15 seems like very good value. If you have a competitive team then you should be trying to win now, not sell off your assets for prospects.
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Re: Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby Urban Cohorts » Sat Jan 21, 2012 9:58 am

icemic wrote:2 questions:
1. Does this damage my pitching too much?
2. Am I overpaying to have this prospects at a dirt cheap price for 3 years once I decide to activate them?


1) I need to know how many teams your league has, what your salary cap is, and most importantly what the rest of your rotation looks like.

2) Yes, I think you are overpaying IMO. You are giving up David Price for 2 years with a very good contract for a standard cap league. Price is elite, but also still young and improving. You are also giving up Duffy, who doesn't have as high a ceiling as Miller or Teheran IMO, but could still become a good starter.

Teheran and Miller both have high upside, but both are prospects. And while having them at $1 for 3 years is very alluring if they break out, that would be assuming a best case scenario. A more probable scenario is that one of the two works out and the other doesn't. That would still be pretty good, but again, does it make up for Price?

icemic wrote:My first thought is no, I'm giving too much with Choo. Take Choo and Rios out and we'd be good.


I wouldn't have a problem moving Choo or Hudson. But there is an issue of taking on Cahill for that price, which I don't think is great. And something tells me that if you "need" Cahill, your pitching may take a big hit from losing Price.
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Re: Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby MashinSpuds » Sat Jan 21, 2012 10:08 am

What worries me is that of the four guys you'll be getting back, one you don't even want (Cahill) and the other seems like a lukewarm gamble candidate (Rios). If you want those two minors guys, could you just send him Price? You stated that you are "pretty well set in pitching", so I'm assuming a top arm like Price is expendable. Price for Teheran, Miller, and a serviceable SP could work.

However, you also state that you will be competitive this year. Are you so competitive that losing Price for a couple of bench warmers (for now) can still keep you in the running? Also, Danny Duffy may be a throw-in but it's altogether possible he ends up a strong SP in a few years as he was highly heralded in that Royals system. Don't discount him too much.
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Re: Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby icemic » Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:10 am

hey guys, thanks for the feedback, sorry for the limited information. It's a 12 team 5x5 H2H league. My roster is posted below. As you will see, I actually have a good pitching rotation without Price. In all the dynasty leagues I play in, my philosophy has always been to play for now and the future. So moving guys at their peak value is important. I'm not a huge fan of pitchers in the AL East and I don't think Price is going to get much better than he is, especially in the Wins department. Initially I just wanted to move Price for the two prospects straight up, but that owner wouldn't do it and this is where we've landed, he won't budge any further. Those two prospects are rated as the #1 and 2 pitching prospects in baseball right now. Since this is a cap league having those pitchers for $1 down the road will be a huge advantage. Basically the way our league works is when you have a guy in the minors, you can keep them there is long as you want and then once you call them up the time starts accruing on a 3 year deal at $1. Cap in this league is $260.

C – Lucroy - 2
1B – Fielder - 39
2B – Weeks - 5
3B – Mark Reynolds - 5
SS – Rollins - 35
OF1 – Kemp - 25
OF2 – Choo - 1
OF3 – Gardner - 14
DH – Billy Butler - 3
SP1 – Lester - 16
SP2 – Wainwright - 12
SP3 – Cain - 17
SP4 – Price - 15
SP5 – Daniel Hudson - 1
RP1 – Bailey - 15
RP2 – Cordero - 5
RP3 – Santos - 2
Bench = Markakis (I will drop him due to cost), Danny Espinosa, Pagan, Alcides Escobar, Sean Burnett, Tim Hudson, Erik Bedard, Ogando, Javy Guerra
Minors = Martin Perez, Tyler Thornberg, Danny Duffy, Mat Gamel, Nick Franklin, Jerry Sands
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Re: Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:29 am

I like your philosophy, and I think this is a good time to move Price, who gets slightly devalued for me in a H2H League because during the H2H Playoffs he'll be typically facing the offenses of New York and Boston, and even Toronto if theirs shakes out like it has the potential to. However, the deal you posted initially seems like a drastic overpay for me, even taking the contracts into consideration. I would look a different direction and try and get more for Price.
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Re: Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby MaudDib » Sat Jan 21, 2012 11:56 am

I am fine with this deal. I do like Cahill going forward and I think people forget just how young he is and how the right numbers have been improving each year. His ERA and wins don't show it but I think this guy will become a good #2 SP. Add in that you are getting two pretty good minor league arms and I like this deal. I will say, I am not sold on Teheran. He is still pretty young and we very well might not see him for a year or two because the Braves have so much pitching right now. Miller on the other hand has the upside of a #1 and very likely will be in the majors sometime this year.
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Re: Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby ensanimal » Sat Jan 21, 2012 12:26 pm

I don't like this at all for you. You're downgrading your pitching staff currently and taking on a more expensive pitcher. No way am I giving up on Price right now, a top 10 SP in my book.
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Re: Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby bigguy1551 » Sat Jan 21, 2012 3:02 pm

I like Price at $15 and Choo at $! is a steal IMO. I'd pass on this one
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Re: Trade for prospects while remaining competitive

Postby icemic » Sat Jan 21, 2012 3:20 pm

I hate to be that guy that asks for advice and then argues with everyone, but let me just play a little more devil's advocate here. I tend to agree that, with Choo, this trade is too much. Maybe some of you could give your take on this trade without Choo and Rios.

But here's the way I could justify this, which plays into the whole concept of win now and rebuild. Choo, aside, I'm not sure I need Price and T Hudson in my pitching rotation. Without those guys, my 6 man rotation would look like: Lester, Wainwright, Cain, Daniel Hudson, Cahill & Ogando/Bedard (depending on how these situations play out). That rotation is still one of the 3 best rotations in my 12 man teams. And now I have stocked up on some top notch prospects which could be no. 1 or 2 pitchers for hardly any cost 2-3 years down the road.

That owner is not going to give those guys up for nothing, would you? There's not other way to get quality pitching for cheap as I constantly draft towards the bottom of the minors draft each year (7 minors spots on each team).

Personally, I like Lester, Wainwright, Cain better than Price anyways.
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